ATL: IKE Discussion

[HouTXmetro]

OK, so is Ike stalling? I need accurate info, not what someone thinks.

[TexasStorm]

Doubting Ike gets back up to Cat 3. It has enough energy to sustain Cat 2 until landfall but I bet the NHC will start forecasting it tonight as a Cat 2 at landfall instead of the Cat 3 they are forecasting now.

[HurricaneRobert]

The other thing that is amazing:

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES

With winds reaching 275 miles out from the center, Ike's got to be up there with some of the largest hurricane in the Gulf ever?

Yesterday it was posted that Opal was 280. (Or was it 260. If so, my bad.)

[x-y-no]

OK, so is Ike stalling? I need accurate info, not what someone thinks.

No. I see no indication of a stall.

[ConvergenceZone]

Even the NHC doesn't call for IKE to hit Cat3 status until later tomorrow, and I bet if they find the winds lower than 100 mph, that they may either delay Cat3 until real close to landfall or just predict a cat2 at landfall instead....

[Steve]

>>OK, so is Ike stalling? I need accurate info, not what someone thinks.



Why even post this. Run a loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

[CajunMama]

PLEASE DONT QUOTE THE IMAGES IN YOUR REPLIES!

Ageed. When quoting go back and delete the [img] [/img] tags. We don't need to be scrollling down over these pics constantly. And let's not keep posting pics of other hurricanes right now. Ike is our focus.

[Agua]

This IS a big storm, this is like the surge we got from Katrina and she was alot closer to home. So even though the winds are not much, and will be easy to withstand, the surge however is going to come in angry, so beware, and do not take this storm lightly if you are in its path.

You aren't lying! I don't care what the winds are, this thing is pushing up water in Biloxi as much as many tropical storms do and its close to 300 miles away!

[cheekygeek]

Galveston/Houston storm surge maps:

http://prtl.uhcl.edu/portal/page/portal/FAO/Student_Tab_Related/Students_Tab_Images/Surge%20Galveston%201.pdf

http://prtl.uhcl.edu/portal/page/portal/FAO/Student_Tab_Related/Students_Tab_Images/Surge%20Galveston%202.pdf

http://prtl.uhcl.edu/portal/page/portal/FAO/Student_Tab_Related/Students_Tab_Images/Surge%20Galveston%20Texas%20City.pdf

http://prtl.uhcl.edu/portal/page/portal/FAO/Student_Tab_Related/Students_Tab_Images/Surge%20Galveston%20Bay%20Clear%20Lake%20Taylor%20Lake_0.pdf

MP3 discussion on Storm Surge (Salient point: 9 out of 10 people killed by hurricanes are killed by the storm surge).

[x-y-no]

Doubting Ike gets back up to Cat 3. It has enough energy to sustain Cat 2 until landfall but I bet the NHC will start forecasting it tonight as a Cat 2 at landfall instead of the Cat 3 they are forecasting now.

I don't understand what basis there can be for saying that. It may happen, given the anomalously low winds Ike has so far, but unless one understands why Ike has anomalously low winds I'm not seeing a basis for thinking this will continue.

If the core tightens, the winds will go up. If not, they may not. I have no idea which one will obtain, so I'd say the prudent thing is to plan for the former and hope for the latter.

[jinftl]

Latest wind probabilities show the highest risk narrowing in on the area from Galveston to Freeport. These numbers will go up more as storm gets closer.

The breakdown of probability of 34kt, 50kt, 64kt winds breaks down as follows...

Port Arthur
34kt 79%
50kt 47%
64kt 25%

Galveston
34kt 89%
50kt 69%
64kt 45%

Houston
34kt 86%
50kt 64%
64kt 37%

Freeport
34kt 89%
50kt 72%
64kt 44%

Port O'Connor
34kt 77%
50kt 49%
64kt 26%

Corpus Christi
34kt 48%
50kt 20%
64kt 9%

[Windy]

Cy-Fair ISD IS having school tomorrow. What idiots!

http://www.cfisd.net/key/2008/key_091008ike.pdf

That's the most idiotic thing I've heard. As someone who has a law degree, I can say that they would be MAJORLY liable if someone gets hurt.

DISCLAIMER: THIS POST IS NOT MEANT TO CONSTITUTE OFFICIAL OR UNOFFICIAL LEGAL ADVICE OF ANY SORT.

I contacted the school's superintendant and board. This is apparently old information (though they've yet to update their website.) Here was the superintendent's reply:

Thank you for your advice, but the message that you are citing was accurate yesterday (Wednesday). Our district is closed on Friday and we will have no after school activities today.

I do consult with sources that are more credible than excitable media meteorologists; those in the know with BP/Amoco and the gas pipeline companies in Houston provide us with up-to-date information.


Dr. David Anthony, superintendent
Cypress-Fairbanks ISD

[fasterdisaster]

Untrained observation...ike is not as tight looking...esp on north and west side....the other storms looked formidable on all sides...ike looks meanest on the south and east. evidence of shear?

Uh, no, evidence of Category 2 versus upper Category 4 to 175 mph Category 5.

[jinftl]

If the core tightens and winds go up....would the overall field of hurricane force winds shrink some as the core 'draws in' some of the energy that is spread out....or would the windfield size stay the same, only now he would have an even more powerful core are?

Doubting Ike gets back up to Cat 3. It has enough energy to sustain Cat 2 until landfall but I bet the NHC will start forecasting it tonight as a Cat 2 at landfall instead of the Cat 3 they are forecasting now.

I don't understand what basis there can be for saying that. It may happen, given the anomalously low winds Ike has so far, but unless one understands why Ike has anomalously low winds I'm not seeing a basis for thinking this will continue.

If the core tightens, the winds will go up. If not, they may not. I have no idea which one will obtain, so I'd say the prudent thing is to plan for the former and hope for the latter.

[Nexus]

Ike currently moving over an area of lesser heat content.

Ocean Heat Content & Forecast Track (12z)

[Sanibel]

I don't understand what basis there can be for saying that. It may happen, given the anomalously low winds Ike has so far, but unless one understands why Ike has anomalously low winds I'm not seeing a basis for thinking this will continue.

I think it has something to do with the warm-topped nature of Ike and the broad windfield. The simplest way to put it is Ike is a wide storm and the dry air limiting its west side is making it unable to pull all that broad windfield back around like it could before Cuba.

[jinftl]

i think we are saying the same thing....ike is not a katrina, rita, etc in strength which carries over to appearance

Untrained observation...ike is not as tight looking...esp on north and west side....the other storms looked formidable on all sides...ike looks meanest on the south and east. evidence of shear?

Uh, no, evidence of Category 2 versus upper Category 4 to 175 mph Category 5.

[Ptarmigan]

You can have a large a Category 1/2 hurricane that produces massive storm surge compared to a small Category 4/5 hurricane. Hurricane Katrina produced 35 foot storm surge and was only a Category 3, while Charley produced 4 to 6 foot storm surge and was a Category 4 hurricane.

[O Town]

Shear that is over and around Ike right now, map time stamp is 09z.
Doesn't seem too bad actually.

[jinftl]

slope of coastline a factor too....some areas like the MS coast are very vulnerable, compared to an area like southeast florida...same storm would not produce same surge in Biloxi and Miami

You can have a large a Category 1/2 hurricane that produces massive storm surge compared to a small Category 4/5 hurricane. Hurricane Katrina produced 35 foot storm surge and was only a Category 3, while Charley produced 4 to 6 foot storm surge and was a Category 4 hurricane.