ATL: IKE Discussion

[Derek Ortt]

That dry air is really doing a number on Ike.

Dry Air is our best friend right now.

Dry air does not do anything to TCs in terms of intrusions without strong shear. I did a thesis on this last year

now, it may be partially responsible for the concentric eyewall activity

[KWT]

Yep if the northern side of that outer eyewall can close off, then Ike may well start to strengthen. Still if the northern eyewall decides to strengthen then the worst case will happen, Ike will strengthen and have a huge surge with a large wind field...

As others have said, even if Ike stays as he is, this is going to be a terrible hurricane and is going to hasmmer a huge region.

[tolakram]

Local television is showing massive traffic backups trying to exit Galveston. The inbound lanes are still inbound and there are people driving into Galveston. I don't know what they're thinking, because I don't think there is enough time to get back out. They need to open the contraflow lanes right now.

Anyone got that Galveston exit traffic camera link bookmarked? I seem to have lost it... it was posted around page 400 some hours ago...

I don't but don't forget about google maps traffic maps:

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&g ... 11&layer=t

[jinftl]

would a strenghthening core center shrink the windfield some as it taps in to the energy or would it just be deriving additional energy and maintain windfield?

Yep if the northern side of that outer eyewall can close off, then Ike may well start to strengthen. Still if the northern eyewall decides to strengthen then the worst case will happen, Ike will strengthen and have a huge surge with a large wind field...

[curtadams]

Folks, there's no good way to see eyewall dynamics on the geosync sats but water vapor is the absolute *worst*. It mostly shows cirrus clouds, which are covering up exactly what you want to see (mid-level dynamics). The best during the day is RGB where low clouds are yellow, high blue, and midlevel white. You can sometimes see mid-level dry air intrusions or even occasionally eyewall weaknesses as areas with yellow and blue clouds but no connecting white. Right now Ike has a LOT of mid-level dry air on his W and his N (a very good thing). You can also see a weakness in the outer wall, currently on the N side although it's rotating around.

[Senobia]

They're likely trying to go through Galveston across Boliver Peninsula to get back to I10 and head east.

A short cut of sorts.

The ferry is going to run until 11pm.

[bob rulz]

I see some people saying that rapid intensification is possible now that the outer eyewall is taking over, and others saying that they'd be surprised if it strengthened any more.

If the outer eyewall is collapsing in and becoming dominant, doesn't that mean it will strengthen since the EWRC will have completed? These conflicting forecasts are getting confusing.

[Tireman4]

http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/layers/

That should help

[Nexus]

Local television is showing massive traffic backups trying to exit Galveston. The inbound lanes are still inbound and there are people driving into Galveston. I don't know what they're thinking, because I don't think there is enough time to get back out. They need to open the contraflow lanes right now.

Anyone got that Galveston exit traffic camera link bookmarked? I seem to have lost it... it was posted around page 400 some hours ago...

Yes:

http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/cctv ... IH-45_Gulf

And here is the Mobile causeway cam that was posted earlier, water really coming up:

http://www.wkrg.com/traffic/view/causew ... _40/15445/

[rtd2]

latest recon 949mb...looking slightly less organized

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

that outer wind maxima has much stronger winds now then the inner.

[KWT]

would a strenghthening core center shrink the windfield some as it taps in to the energy or would it just be deriving additional energy and maintain windfield?

I really don't know to be honest!
One thing that wil lbe the same matter what now, is the fact its going to have a big surge, very likely the surge will be a real test to the Galveston seawalls, the waves likely will over top them I'd guess regardless.

[Steve]

>>These conflicting forecasts are getting confusing.

Just read the pros for forecasts. Tropical Analysis forum of course.

Steve

[CrazyC83]

that outer wind maxima has much stronger winds now then the inner.

The inner eyewall - which was so tenacious last night - is dead on the NW quad now, and may be dead on the SE quad as well (the next couple passes will tell the tale).

[Derek Ortt]

looks like the never ending EWRC may FINALLY be ending

[Pebbles]

Whats scary is that there are still people who need to get back into Galveston to get family and belongings. How will they get in if Contra Flow begins?

The mayor (I think.. I don't know these local officials well) is on the news right now... his explaination is they are trying to to wait on Contra Flow until the afternoon rush hour if they can. So that people can get home (assuming from work) as there will still be heavy traffic both directions until after then.

[Txdivermom]

Local television is showing massive traffic backups trying to exit Galveston. The inbound lanes are still inbound and there are people driving into Galveston. I don't know what they're thinking, because I don't think there is enough time to get back out. They need to open the contraflow lanes right now.

I think contra flow was only supposed to start a little before Conroe. That wont help this. I -45 outside my window (near Little York) is moving well.

[JtSmarts]

looks like the never ending EWRC may FINALLY be ending

Do you think he'll start another one before landfall?

[lys3rg0]

Local television is showing massive traffic backups trying to exit Galveston. The inbound lanes are still inbound and there are people driving into Galveston. I don't know what they're thinking, because I don't think there is enough time to get back out. They need to open the contraflow lanes right now.

Anyone got that Galveston exit traffic camera link bookmarked? I seem to have lost it... it was posted around page 400 some hours ago...

Yes:

http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/cctv ... IH-45_Gulf

And here is the Mobile causeway cam that was posted earlier, water really coming up:

http://www.wkrg.com/traffic/view/causew ... _40/15445/

thanks a bunch

[Brent]

looks like the never ending EWRC may FINALLY be ending

Nice to hear from a pro. This storm has been confusing me for days.