ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Not sure thats really going to be the main problem for the system right now Wthrman13, though it may help expalin why it just can't sort its inner core out.

[CoCo2]

Never posted a video before, but if I can figure this out, I just went outside to the corner of Gravier and Camp Streets in New Orleans and shot a video from my blackjack2 facing Harrah's Casino/Mississippi River (assuming SE but might be S or SW the way this funky city is laid out). Anyway, wind was gusting pretty good for a 90+/- degree day IMHO.

Steve

See if it worked:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYj1HfUpcRU

Worked well, my old neighborhood, River Ridge had a wind gust of 36mph

51mph in Belle Chasse.

[gboudx]

Noon update from Jeff Lidner.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103096&p=1824994#p1824994

[Frank2]

Wthrman13,

Of course with a wind field this large, if it did constrict then the wind speed would increase - it seems that's the issue with Ike since it covers such a large area, which in that case is a good thing since the wind isn't what it could be, though it does mean that more will experience some wind for a longer period of time....

Frances (2004) was similar - we had tropical storm force gusts for 18 hours - it seemed like it would never end...

[Brent]

102 kt FL in the NE quad.

[thetruesms]

The line of reasoning may be so riddled with errors and misconceptions to warrant at the very least a smack to the head....but i wonder if the very large windfield has resulted in the energy of the system becoming diffuse and spread out. This in turn has made a real ramp up in max wind difficult since energy needs to be drawn into a strong center core for that. so if the pressure rises some...and the winds are always some function of the pressure gradient between high and low, the wind field may contract and the energy moved towards the center core....therefore a stronger ike to follow.

like i said...all theoretical from someone with no real qualifications to theorize.

No, your line of reasoning is sound. That's indeed what's going on with Ike right now. Though it has a fairly low central pressure, the pressure gradient is fairly weak near the core. In order for the winds to increase, Ike would have to "close ranks" and contract the outer wind maximum into a new, smaller eyewall. It looks from the recent recon pass that the old, inner eyewall has weakened considerably. It remains to be seen if the hurricane has enough time to complete the ERC before landfall. It's dealing with some shear and dry air right now, so we'll see.

EDIT: However, not to be nitpicky, but the central pressure would have to drop in order for the system to wind up as you are saying. Raising the central pressure would only further weaken the pressure gradient and, consequently, the winds.

While the pressure is rising, I wonder that if it only rises somewhat, that the new eyewall will be induced to contract quickly enough that we don't see the temporary decrease in wind speeds, and instead stays constant.

All this talk about replacement cycle dynamics reminds me of my capstone project

[Dean4Storms]

I don't know if Ike is going to be able to overcome his structural situation by landfall seeing that he is running out of time, no more Loop Currents and this slight shear along with the dry air.



My personal opinion only, get all your information from official sources.

[KWT]

Yep Brent in the outer eyewall I'd guess, seems like the battle of the eyewalls continues, I'm really starting to wonder if this will ever end before landfall, not a good either because Ike is just utterly huge now and is creating a mammoth surge for a hurricane of this strength, goes to show that strength really doesn't matter too much in terms of surge.

[Wthrman13]

Cool...i'll take nitpicking to smack on the head anyday... with the pressure so low would it take much for the winds to jump to what you would typically expect with that pressure?

If the pressure stayed about the same and the outer wind maxima contracted to a more typical diameter (i.e. about 30-40 nm), then I would expect the winds to ramp up to a typical Cat 3 intensity, but this sort of thing takes a while.

[Weatherfreak000]

Ike is back to NW.

Currently moving WAY off Forecast points. Rita 2.0 indeed.

[tolakram]

New, 2 hours ago anyway.

[CrazyC83]

102 kt FL in the NE quad.

That translates to 92 kt at the surface.

[RL3AO]

102 kt FL in the NE quad.

That translates to 92 kt at the surface.

Dropsondes have be showing that 90% is too high right now. The winds aren't mixing down that well.

[mattpetre]

KWT,

Maybe even goes to show that strength or intensity is not the right term for a Hurricane based on just speed. To be strong you really need a combination of size, speed, and momentum (waves that have been built up from history of storm). This Cat 2 could change our opinions of hurricane strength.

[Brent]

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA AND GALVESTON BAYS...15 TO 20 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTAL AREAS FROM MATAGORDA TO HIGH ISLAND INCLUDING
GALVESTON ISLAND...12 TO 16 FEET

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING HIGH TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING
EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL
FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION
DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND
DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES
LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE
SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET
FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY
FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY
BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH
MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK
CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS84-KHGX.shtml

[Stormcenter]

Ike is back to NW.

Currently moving WAY off Forecast points. Rita 2.0 indeed.

Not that much off. The good thing is he's moving at a decent clip.
The quicker we get him inland the better for everyone.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[dhweather]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


The dry air to the west of Ike, combined with the high pressure over NE Mexico (providing modest shear) are prohibiting intensification.

Unless he gets one single core defined soon, he'll not make landfall stronger than he is now.

Given the very large windfield, there's going to be a lot of problems with flooding.

[rtd2]

Ike is back to NW.

Currently moving WAY off Forecast points. Rita 2.0 indeed.

ask this 2 pages ago....looks that way to me too....see if it continues

[jinftl]

almost like the short-term pressure rise is a trigger...but ike has to take advantage of the chain of potential events that follow....and pressure must then actually fall...for him to get stronger

The line of reasoning may be so riddled with errors and misconceptions to warrant at the very least a smack to the head....but i wonder if the very large windfield has resulted in the energy of the system becoming diffuse and spread out. This in turn has made a real ramp up in max wind difficult since energy needs to be drawn into a strong center core for that. so if the pressure rises some...and the winds are always some function of the pressure gradient between high and low, the wind field may contract and the energy moved towards the center core....therefore a stronger ike to follow.

like i said...all theoretical from someone with no real qualifications to theorize.

No, your line of reasoning is sound. That's indeed what's going on with Ike right now. Though it has a fairly low central pressure, the pressure gradient is fairly weak near the core. In order for the winds to increase, Ike would have to "close ranks" and contract the outer wind maximum into a new, smaller eyewall. It looks from the recent recon pass that the old, inner eyewall has weakened considerably. It remains to be seen if the hurricane has enough time to complete the ERC before landfall. It's dealing with some shear and dry air right now, so we'll see.

EDIT: However, not to be nitpicky, but the central pressure would have to drop in order for the system to wind up as you are saying. Raising the central pressure would only further weaken the pressure gradient and, consequently, the winds.

While the pressure is rising, I wonder that if it only rises somewhat, that the new eyewall will be induced to contract quickly enough that we don't see the temporary decrease in wind speeds, and instead stays constant.

All this talk about replacement cycle dynamics reminds me of my capstone project

[Weatherfreak000]

90kts is finally 100mph legitimate. Seems Ike isn't a Category two by name anymore!