ATL: IKE Discussion

[Raider Power]

Ike is back to NW.

Currently moving WAY off Forecast points. Rita 2.0 indeed.

Not sure that I am seeing that, but I am most definitely a rank amateur at this stuff. I turned on one of the NHC loops and enabled Trop Pts and from my viewing of things, the storm seems to be right on schedule. Maybe because those images are not as up to date as ones you are viewing?

[tolakram]

[Weatherfreak000]

Ike is back to NW.

Currently moving WAY off Forecast points. Rita 2.0 indeed.

Not that much off. The good thing iid he's moving at a decent clip.
The quicker we get him inland the better for everyone.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

What? You can't be serious..Stormcenter are you using your Tropical Forecast Points?

Ike is practically at the latitiude it SHOULD be at 00Z FRIDAY right now. Ike is VERY much off track.

[PTrackerLA]

Yeah not feeling too comfortable about this NW movement. He sure is moving off the forecast points:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

He also appears to be "pointing" towards the SE Texas coast now, a typical sign of expected movement.

[WxGuy1]

The current MPI (Maximum Potential Intensity) data indicate that conditions support Cat 4 winds (though few cyclones reach their MPI). So, I think the limiting reagant right now, so to say, is the rather odd structure of the storm. In addition, as othrs have noted, RECON just found 102 kt winds ~ 100 miles NE of the center of circulation. The 945-955 mb central pressure that Ike has had the past day would otherwise support stronger than the current-advisory 100 mph winds, but the structure of Ike is, for whatever reason, leading to a large area of weaker PGF, as opposed to a smaller area of strong PGF / winds that typically characterizes tropical cyclones. I don't recall too many storms that had stronger winds 100 miles from the center than it had near the center. If the double wind maxima structure can fix itself, then I foresee little reason why Ike's winds won't pick up to at least Cat 3 range. That said, I still think the surge will be the major danger with Ike. Jeff Master's made mention of some interesting things in his blog, any case anyone is interested.

Recon is now finding a slew of 95-102 kt FL winds in the NE quad. The winds aren't mixing down as well as they typically do for some reason, though. That's still a massive area of strong TS to Cat 1 winds. I fear the surge that Ike will bring, to say the least.

[Stormcenter]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


The dry air to the west of Ike, combined with the high pressure over NE Mexico (providing modest shear) are prohibiting intensification.

Unless he gets one single core defined soon, he'll not make landfall stronger than he is now.

Given the very large windfield, there's going to be a lot of problems with flooding.

I can buy into that. I hope you are right.

[jinftl]

Certainly within cone though...and with hurricane warnings to morgan city, la, doesn't seem like any area is 'under-warned' even if a bit more nw

Ike is back to NW.

Currently moving WAY off Forecast points. Rita 2.0 indeed.

Not that much off. The good thing iid he's moving at a decent clip.
The quicker we get him inland the better for everyone.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

What? You can't be serious..Stormcenter are you using your Tropical Forecast Points?

Ike is practically at the latitiude it SHOULD be at 00Z FRIDAY right now. Ike is VERY much off track.

[Steve]

Click tropical forecast points. Yikes. Hopefully that will even out. /obligatory 9/11

[tolakram]

[micktooth]

This happens every storm with the track. Let me guess:
People in LA and east "moving NW"
People in TX "moving WNW"

[fasterdisaster]

New, 2 hours ago anyway.

The inner eyewall is (basically) gone, the NW quad needs to close off now. If he can do that, he will strengthen.

[bob rulz]

I'm confused. I thought that the double wind maximum was finally sorting itself out and that the outer eyewall was becoming dominant, but people are still saying that we have problems with a double eyewall.

Which is it really here?

[jinftl]

my thought is that for ike to really ramp up, the windfield must reduce some first...but could always expand later, but with a strong core to make matters worse

The current MPI (Maximum Potential Intensity) data indicate that conditions support Cat 4 winds (though few cyclones reach their MPI). So, I think the limiting reagant right now, so to say, is the rather odd structure of the storm. In addition, as othrs have noted, RECON just found 102 kt winds ~ 100 miles NE of the center of circulation. The 945-955 mb central pressure that Ike has had the past day would otherwise support stronger than the current-advisory 100 mph winds, but the structure of Ike is, for whatever reason, leading to a large area of weaker PGF, as opposed to a smaller area of strong PGF / winds that typically characterizes tropical cyclones. I don't recall too many storms that had stronger winds 100 miles from the center than it had near the center. If the double wind maxima structure can fix itself, then I foresee little reason why Ike's winds won't pick up to at least Cat 3 range. That said, I still think the surge will be the major danger with Ike. Jeff Master's made mention of some interesting things in his blog, any case anyone is interested.

[Dave C]

The latest vis. shows a moat or dry area forming at about a 50 mile radius, the replacement cycle may be moving along now.

[HouTXmetro]

He is right of the forecast, I believe it will level out though... Landfall may occur further up the coast but I doubt LA. Either way, LA is going to get hammered. If it manages to scoot East of Houston it won't be as bad as it could be (for Houston).

[Weatherfreak000]

This happens every storm with the track. Let me guess:
People in LA and east "moving NW"
People in TX "moving WNW"

Maybe so, I agree. But being too far East to see this storm at this point...i'd like to think my opinion is unbiased at this point. The storm is without question moving NW.

[Wthrman13]

I'm confused. I thought that the double wind maximum was finally sorting itself out and that the outer eyewall was becoming dominant, but people are still saying that we have problems with a double eyewall.

Which is it really here?

Both are true.

[PTrackerLA]

Yes the warnings to Morgan city are warranted. There are now mandatory evacuations underway in Iberia parish south of hwy 90 and Vermilion south of hwy 14. Many of these areas flooded with Rita. I'm comforted that we're not taking any chances around here. It's fairly breezy in the city already with very "tropical" looking skies.

[Stormcenter]

He is right of the forecast, I believe it will level out though... Landfall may occur further up the coast but I doubt LA. Either way, LA is going to get hammered. If it manages to scoot East of Houston it won't be as bad as it could be (for Houston).

Oh I agree he is right of the forecast but more then likely it will level out.

[Stormavoider]

This happens every storm with the track. Let me guess:
People in LA and east "moving NW"
People in TX "moving WNW"

It keeps the people in Colorado guessing