ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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caribepr
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Re:

#9321 Postby caribepr » Mon Aug 18, 2008 9:59 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:Not impressed with this storm at all....I guess this is why I haven't really joined in on any of the conversation. System doesn't seem worthy of much analyzation. Give me my Summertime Thunderstorm and I'm more excited and impressed than this tiny tropical storm.


Tell that to the families of these people. I'm in Orlando right now, having done the preps at my daughter's house, relaxed, but alert. But I'm sort of surprised, Sean, with what you experienced during Katrina, that you would take this attitude about any storm. Or maybe it's because it was Katrina...whatever, death and destruction only have one name.

2 drowned babies on Haiti bus raise Fay toll to 14

By EVENS SANON – 5 hours ago

PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti (AP) — Two babies were killed when a river surging with rain from Tropical Storm Fay toppled their overcrowded bus, a U.N. official said Monday, raising the storm's Caribbean death toll to at least 14.

U.N. peacekeepers arrived at the scene and confirmed that 41 passengers made it out safely, contrary to earlier reports that at least 30 passengers were feared dead, said Fred Blaise, a spokesman for the United Nations police force in Haiti.

Blaise told The Associated Press that the peacekeepers saw the bodies of the two infants who died when their bus tried to cross the swollen Riviere Glace, as well as that of a man who drowned separately in the same river.

At least two other buses crossed the river safely just before the third one flipped, witnesses said. David Pierre, one of three mayors of Beaumont, the town where the incident happened, told Radio Metropole that officials have been trying to get a bridge built in the area for years because of flooding.

Silvera Guillaume, a Haitian civil protection coordinator in the area who had earlier said 30 or more passengers were feared dead, also told the AP after arriving at the scene that only three bodies were found. Guillaume said police and Red Cross workers were still searching. An accurate count of the passengers was impossible to come by.

Six other people also died in storm-related flooding, Haiti's civil protection chief Marie Alta Jean-Baptiste said, and five deaths were blamed on the storm in the Dominican Republic. Fay then passed over Cuba on a path to become a hurricane on its way to Florida.

Cuban authorities evacuated nearly 10,000 residents in five provinces, closed ports and suspended carnival celebrations in Cienfuegos. But their worst fear — a direct hit on Old Havana's dilapidated buildings — was not realized. There were no reports of major damage or flooding, and most evacuees headed home Monday.

In Florida, roughly 25,000 tourists were evacuated, according to Monroe County Mayor Mario Di Gennaro, while some bars still did business with the holdouts.

"We're gonna ride it out," said Willie Dykes, 58, who lives on a sailboat in Key West. "We're not worried about it. We've seen this movie before."

Associated Press writers Jonathan M. Katz in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic; Brian Skoloff in Key West; and Will Weissert in Havana contributed to this report.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9322 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:00 pm

Call me silly, but the unpredictable ones like Fay are the most interesting to track.


Nothing against a perfectly formed major in the middle of the ocean, but the unpredictability and arguing over centers and the such, why it is interesting.
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Sean in New Orleans
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Re: Re:

#9323 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:02 pm

caribepr wrote:
Sean in New Orleans wrote:Not impressed with this storm at all....I guess this is why I haven't really joined in on any of the conversation. System doesn't seem worthy of much analyzation. Give me my Summertime Thunderstorm and I'm more excited and impressed than this tiny tropical storm.


Tell that to the families of these people. I'm in Orlando right now, having done the preps at my daughter's house, relaxed, but alert. But I'm sort of surprised, Sean, with what you experienced during Katrina, that you would take this attitude about any storm. Or maybe it's because it was Katrina...whatever, death and destruction only have one name.

2 drowned babies on Haiti bus raise Fay toll to 14

By EVENS SANON – 5 hours ago

PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti (AP) — Two babies were killed when a river surging with rain from Tropical Storm Fay toppled their overcrowded bus, a U.N. official said Monday, raising the storm's Caribbean death toll to at least 14.

U.N. peacekeepers arrived at the scene and confirmed that 41 passengers made it out safely, contrary to earlier reports that at least 30 passengers were feared dead, said Fred Blaise, a spokesman for the United Nations police force in Haiti.

Blaise told The Associated Press that the peacekeepers saw the bodies of the two infants who died when their bus tried to cross the swollen Riviere Glace, as well as that of a man who drowned separately in the same river.

At least two other buses crossed the river safely just before the third one flipped, witnesses said. David Pierre, one of three mayors of Beaumont, the town where the incident happened, told Radio Metropole that officials have been trying to get a bridge built in the area for years because of flooding.

Silvera Guillaume, a Haitian civil protection coordinator in the area who had earlier said 30 or more passengers were feared dead, also told the AP after arriving at the scene that only three bodies were found. Guillaume said police and Red Cross workers were still searching. An accurate count of the passengers was impossible to come by.

Six other people also died in storm-related flooding, Haiti's civil protection chief Marie Alta Jean-Baptiste said, and five deaths were blamed on the storm in the Dominican Republic. Fay then passed over Cuba on a path to become a hurricane on its way to Florida.

Cuban authorities evacuated nearly 10,000 residents in five provinces, closed ports and suspended carnival celebrations in Cienfuegos. But their worst fear — a direct hit on Old Havana's dilapidated buildings — was not realized. There were no reports of major damage or flooding, and most evacuees headed home Monday.

In Florida, roughly 25,000 tourists were evacuated, according to Monroe County Mayor Mario Di Gennaro, while some bars still did business with the holdouts.

"We're gonna ride it out," said Willie Dykes, 58, who lives on a sailboat in Key West. "We're not worried about it. We've seen this movie before."

Associated Press writers Jonathan M. Katz in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic; Brian Skoloff in Key West; and Will Weissert in Havana contributed to this report.

Death is terrible. But, I'm posting about what I have seen over the last 6 hours and the NHC clearly agrees with what I'm seeing. I'm 40 years old. I don't live off of drama. I'm more into reality. With that said, I've already said prayers for the families of the victims. Death is terrible.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9324 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:02 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Call me silly, but the unpredictable ones like Fay are the most interesting to track.


Nothing against a perfectly formed major in the middle of the ocean, but the unpredictability and arguing over centers and the such, why it is interesting.


I agree! Here's hoping that this gives N. Georgia and the rest of the SE all of the moisture it has been needing!
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9325 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:03 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Call me silly, but the unpredictable ones like Fay are the most interesting to track.


Nothing against a perfectly formed major in the middle of the ocean, but the unpredictability and arguing over centers and the such, why it is interesting.



Ed, your silly...... :lol:

BTW- TX's TC season doesnt end until the westerlies kick in..... :D
Last edited by ROCK on Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9326 Postby NEXRAD » Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:03 pm

Satellite and radar are showing that strong bands and storm cells will likely impact much of South Florida overnight. I just had a power surge in SE Palm Beach County. I stepped outside and saw some big green flashes; must be some transformers or power lines popping.

- Jay
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#9327 Postby mattpetre » Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:03 pm

If Fay somehow makes the crossover and then the re-crossover on the FL Panhandle and then somehow makes it to Lake Charles, do I get to still say that my personal forecast was correct? I said (mostly before anyone thought it would happen) that it would go S. of Cuba, that it would become a hurricane in the GOM and that it would make landfall in Lake Charles (yeah, I was reaching, but at the time I really thought the high was going to back build much more.) So do I get to count it as accurate if the highly improbable were still to occur?
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9328 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:03 pm

He doesn't have to be impressed if he doesn't want to. He didn't minimize the deaths in Haiti, or anything. It didn't spin up into a major like some models were suggesting a few days ago, and it probably won't be the biggest storm of 2008.


I don't think he was trying to start flames or anything. He might have phrased it better, but I don't think he meant to offend.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9329 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:05 pm

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES...95 KM...SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

With southeast shear the radar echoes will continue to show it north and east of the actual center, in my opinion.

This is not an official chart
Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9330 Postby crazycajuncane » Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:05 pm

In defense of Sean...

Do you guys expect him to play this up like the media? It is what it is... it's a tropical storm. Sean is just posting his thoughts and has been a great member here on S2K from the posts I've seen in the past.

If it walks like a duck...

We all understand what is going on here. Lay off Sean. He's just saying what he feels. You have Florida posters saying they are disappointed in the strength of this storm. Go back and read some posts.

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9331 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:05 pm

tolakram wrote:I don't see any official statements either at the NHC or via weather underground. jeremy posted without a source so the info is suspect.


I got it from Weather Underground. It is now up on the NHC site, anyways.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9332 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:05 pm

The real action will get here just when I have to sleep.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9333 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:07 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
tolakram wrote:I don't see any official statements either at the NHC or via weather underground. jeremy posted without a source so the info is suspect.


I got it from Weather Underground. It is now up on the NHC site, anyways.


Yea that was worded a little tough, sorry about that.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9334 Postby Ground_Zero_92 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:07 pm

Sanibel wrote:The real action will get here just when I have to sleep.


Sleep?? What's that?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9335 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:08 pm

Riding a hard line on the trough edge now instead of bumping between the two Highs with a ULL poking at it.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9336 Postby crazycajuncane » Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:09 pm

Question...

Who is buying the emergence of Fay back into the GOM?

Why or why not?
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#9337 Postby jaxfladude » Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:09 pm

One of my local TV met just said that Fay may stall :eek: near my area exactly where is still TBD, but his :idea: will be just offshore of the First Coast but retrograde back :larrow: to the coast the :?: is where that particular landfall may be... :double: to say the least... but then Fay has gotten :grr: already....
Last edited by jaxfladude on Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9338 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:09 pm

here in port st lucie we are starting to get our first real ban coming through. rain is starting to come down and a bit of a breeze. We are under a tornado watch until 430am
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9339 Postby SoupBone » Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:09 pm

crazycajuncane wrote:Question...

Who is buying the emergence of Fay back into the GOM?

Why or why not?



Well looking at the latest track adjustment the NHC is at least giving it some serious thought.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9340 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:10 pm

I believe the slower this moves, and the more east of the forecast this takes. The higher the chances of it getting into the Atlantic. If it gets out below 26.5, and possibly as far north as 27 north by the time the ridge builds it then could follow the Gfs thinking. If it moves faster and gets to far north then it will hit the GA,SC like the Nhc thinks. If it picks up speed and heads more northward it won't get over water water at all.

Right now I would go between the Nhc thinking and the southern 1# thinking.
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