ATL: IKE Discussion

[jinftl]

if red dot (left one) is the center...west side is definitely not as impresive as east side of storm.

The windfield is not nearly as impressive either....if estimates are being made for ts winds to reach coast using 200 mi from center parameter, the onset may be few hours later....if the storm doesn't strengthen and become more symmetric.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 140NW.
34 KT.......230NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.

Eye coming back in the visible

Showing up on IR as well:

[HouTXmetro]

For the sake of the wobble watchers, looks almost Due West now. Making up for the NW jog.

[KWT]

Agreed the west side isn't as impressive but I suspect that even if it did go to the east of Galveston, it'll stil lbe west enough for them to be in the hurricane force winds, thats the best hope now for that region...BUT it means a far bigger hit for those that have already suffered greatly from Rita just a few years back.

Who knows, these wobbles tend to even themselves out, so I suspect it may wobble back tothe west sometime in the next 12hrs or so.

If its going to wobble before landfall, its more likely to be to the east than the west however...

[fasterdisaster]

Still, that's one lopsided hurricane...

It's not as lopsided as people think. As far as outflow goes, yes it's very asymmetric, but as far as the shape of the core goes it has a little more convection on the right but otherwise it's not that bad.

[SunnyThoughts]

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)

Isn't the difference in temps between inside and outside the eye important when looking for intensification?

[fasterdisaster]

if red dot (left one) is the center...west side is definitely not as impresive as east

That's not the center, the little pinhole in between the three red splotches is.

[jinftl]

windfield is lop-sided
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 140NW.
34 KT.......230NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.

Still, that's one lopsided hurricane...

It's not as lopsided as people think. As far as outflow goes, yes it's very asymmetric, but as far as the shape of the core goes it has a little more convection on the right but otherwise it's not that bad.

[dwg71]

If it gets anywhere near 26.5 and 90.0w, SWLa could be the target. Only needs to go .6N and .8W or roughly 305 or so. The BAMS is the only one that had it there.

[fasterdisaster]

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)

Isn't the difference in temps between inside and outside the eye important when looking for intensification?

Good point. I'm not the best with decoding recon but my understanding would be the temp inside is much warmer than outside, meaning the eyewall is becoming stronger. Is this correct or no?

[Derek Ortt]

Ike is NO Katrina or Rita right now. It's not even close.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

actually, the destructive potential is close to that of Katrina

[KWT]

dwg71, by the way Derek said in his forecast thread over in TA that his forecast path would be over Galveston.

Anyway worth putting this up, not seen such strong words since Katrina:

GULF-FACING COASTAL AREAS FROM MATAGORDA TO HIGH ISLAND INCLUDING
GALVESTON ISLAND...12 TO 16 FEET

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING HIGH TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION
ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN
DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE
COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL
PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL
LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE
WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A
MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK
BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH
WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION
OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM
BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

Sounds like they are expecting a very severe situation.

[gatorcane]

Ike is NO Katrina or Rita right now. It's not even close.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

actually, the destructive potential is close to that of Katrina

oh boy

Hopefully it doesn't strengthen too much more

[HurricaneRobert]

Well the pressure increase is good news.

[HouTXmetro]

Well the pressure increase is good news.

Not neccesarily, could be at the end of ERC and about the start dropping again.

[KLP124]

30'+ plus waves on the live buoys in the gulf. And this is on the "good" side of the storm.

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 360 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 48.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 62.2 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 30.2 ft



http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_p ... tion=42001

[KWT]

KLP124, yep becuase of the size of the hurricane the waves are really packing a big punch, very impressive.

[fasterdisaster]

Well the pressure increase is good news.

Not neccesarily, could be at the end of ERC and about the start dropping again.

For god's sake people, there was no pressure increase. This was someone misinterpreting the extrapolation as hard data and when the VDM came the actual number was 1 mb higher which is what led him to believe the pressure had risen, when it hadn't.

[SunnyThoughts]

From Dr. Masters blog. Posted earlier, but for the new people who haven't seen it.

The amount of water Ike has put in motion is about 50% greater than what Katrina did, and thus we can expect Ike's storm surge damage will be similar to or greater than Katrina's. The way we can estimate this damage potential is to compute the total energy of Ike's surface winds (kinetic energy). To do this, we must look at how strong the winds are, and factor in the areal coverage of these winds. Thus, we compute the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) by squaring the velocity of the wind and summing over all regions of the hurricane with tropical storm force winds or higher. This "Integrated Kinetic Energy" was recently proposed by Dr. Mark Powell of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division as a better measure of the destructive power of a hurricane's storm surge than the usual Category 1-5 Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi as a strong Category 3 hurricane, yet its storm surge was more characteristic of a Category 5 storm. Dr. Powell came up with a new scale to rate potential storm surge damage based on IKE (not to be confused with Hurricane Ike!) The new scale ranges from 1-6. Katrina and Wilma at their peaks both earned a 5.1 on this scale (Figure 2). At 9:30am EDT this morning, Ike earned a 5.6 on this scale, the highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years.

[HurricaneRobert]

Well the pressure increase is good news.

Not neccesarily, could be at the end of ERC and about the start dropping again.

It doesn't have a well-defined eye yet.

[poof121]

30'+ plus waves on the live buoys in the gulf. And this is on the "good" side of the storm.

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 360 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 48.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 62.2 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 30.2 ft



http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_p ... tion=42001

-0.48 in pressure tendency.... Never seen one that low...