ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[bvigal]

It does looks sheared, I must admit. What worries me, is that it will continue disorganized but building lots of clouds, then when it gets to about 57/58W, it's going to pop out from under that shear and rapidly develop. Let's hope those models are right, and it misses the islands, because otherwise, there isn't going to be time to prepare, and it could get ugly!

For those who don't remember some of my past postings (and those who do, please forgive my repetition), some charter companies require two days to strip down rigging and move boats to hurricane hole. And they are still booked solid. Seeing what we all do right now, they aren't going to TODAY cancel the week's cruises, run around in chaseboats to order all those people back to base, put them in hotels tonight, pay the airlines to move up their flights, and start stripping/moving boats.

As recently as 10 yrs ago, the entire industry was dead from end of July until October, boats went on the hard or went south for a few months, or to the Med. Not anymore. Airlines offer almost half-price fares all summer. The price difference is enough that people are willing to take the risk, and bring their kids while out of school down to vacation in the Caribbean. Even 5 years ago, I remember how many places here (hotels, restaurants, beach bars) closed for a month or 2, now some close only 2 weeks. I must assume it's the same on other islands. We are now just like Florida, Gulf Coast, and other beach locations in U.S., busy all summer!

[Ola]

This sistem seems to have started moving today. The last 2 days it was hardly moving at all.

[AtlanticWind]

Convection waning a little now, I dont think 92l is quite over the hump yet as it still does not have a well defined LLC . The big question is devolpment with this system . IF it does become a Hurricane looks like a definite threat to the Islands and the U.S.

[Sanibel]

There appears to be some kind of anticyclone moving in from the Gulf over Florida if my eyes are correct.

Remember the area north of the islands didn't support 99L or the hanging frontal remnants.


Looks like the last part of the GFDL run recurves it right in front of Florida like Floyd (if a High doesn't push it back west).

[storms in NC]

He also said{ 92L may represent a threat to the U.S. East Coast early next week.} But we shall see what happens into next week

[gatorcane]

I see what may be two areas of competing "centers." One of them is at about 14.5W lattitude SW of the convection blob. That is the one Derek has mentioned. Another one seems to be trying to form underneath the NE blob. Just to the NE of the blob you see some kind of band feeding into it....

[Vortex]

12 Z NAM rolling in

Contiues to indicate a very well organized storm heading due west in the later part of the run.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Derek Ortt]

its the NAM

enough said

[Derek Ortt]

becoming a bit more disorganized on satellite and moving into more unfavorable conditions.

I'm still only giving this a 10-15% chance of development

[Sanibel]

I'm pretty sure the SW center is just a mid-level eddy from the compressed west edge under the guiding ridge. The one under the center burst is the center. Shear is making it look like it is going NNW but the surface spiral is more WNW.

[alienstorm]

The center seems to be at 14.8N and 53.5W you can see from High Resolution visible loop the low cloud curling into this area. There may be a ML center further NE from here. It seems to be diving to the southwest and if it stacks with the new LLC than we may see the beginning of a intensification cycle.

[gatorcane]

becoming a bit more disorganized on satellite and moving into more unfavorable conditions.

I'm still only giving this a 10-15% chance of development

Derek yes indeed it is heading for a patch of increasing UL winds but I give it a 60% chance of development at this time. After that patch, UL winds are lightening quite a bit.

[deltadog03]

A lot of that shear is from the ridge that is ontop of and just north of 92l. This still has a way to go, but once it gets closer to the islands it should begin to take off.

[Derek Ortt]

if this is going to develop north of the islands (if it even moves there), the UL had better get out of the way. It is not moving at the present time

[Ed Mahmoud]

its the NAM

enough said

The NAM did pretty well with Edouard.

Of course, Edouard was of non-tropical origin, and well inside the NAM's model domain. I don't know how well the NAM does at the edges of its little world.

[Ola]

Why would they send recon to a system that obviously has no closed circulation yet?

[dixiebreeze]

12/1145 UTC 15.3N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

[txag2005]

"12/1145 UTC 15.3N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic Ocean"

Can someone help those of us who do not know about much about weather decipher that?

[x-y-no]

Why would they send recon to a system that obviously has no closed circulation yet?

We don't know for sure recon is going yet.

I rather expect they won't go.

[xironman]

15.3N 51.1W

That is what I have been seeing all morning, hard to see with the convection. The lower spin or eddy has been falling apart.