ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[shah8]

Is...that...Josephine down there?

I just saw her get decapitated like Chris '06. That can't be right. Kyle?

[Noles2006]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

GC - you crack me up.

[gatorcane]

Sitting near or over Tampa:

[ROCK]

Rock is a bonafide EURO hugger now! Fan club president, to be exact!!!!!

I love you to.....

[Weatherfreak000]

Im not buying into the lousy GFS at all...it's not consistent...hasn't been performing well since...Fay...which ironically was the last storm it actually saw in it's runs at the proper intensity


Not to mention Ike is dipping WSW far more significantly then GFS indicates...extrapolate that and Ike is under Florida.


Next model run please.

GFS was pretty good with Gustav, calling for central/SE LA landfall. Use the GFS for steering setups, dont get caught up in the exact pinpoint location of the L.

Correction...GFS did "Subpar" with Gustav. Much like most other globals except the NOGAPS and UKMET which did downright pathetic.


The only models that deserves the distinction of that statement were GFDL and HWRF. They were the only models that consistently showing the correct landfall...from many days out.

[sweetpea]

so the 12Z GFS nails Miami/Ft.Lauderdale, takes Ike WNW nails Naples then up the coast and stalls Ike just west of Tampa nailing it also.

Not liking that at all from where I'm sitting. I am sure it will change again!

[Rocketman]

Well here I am on this board again...

I haven't even cleaned up my property yet!

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL will come out at 1:30 PM EDT.Lets see what track it has.

[Wx_Warrior]

You are correct Rock...It's first few was this exact run. I consider NE GOM from Ala-Flor.

[smw1981]

Correction...GFS did "Subpar" with Gustav. Much like most other globals except the NOGAPS and UKMET which did downright pathetic.

The only models that deserves the distinction of that statement were GFDL and HWRF. They were the only models that consistently showing the correct landfall...from many days out.[/quote]

I may be wrong, but I don't think that is right either! GFDL consistently had Gustav hitting around Mississippi (sometimes closer to Mobile, and sometimes closer to Louisiana, but right around Mississippi) until Saturday night/Sunday, and Gustav hit 24-36 hours later. IMO, that was not superb!

[Sanibel]

GFS is a Donna hook - which 5 days out means it probably won't happen.

(Says Sanibel now looking at his house as a chess piece on a serious stakes chessboard)

[haml8]

Anyone care to comment on Ike at the 120 mark and later... Here is the start and the end....

Start


End

[haml8]

Hey Rock, have you heard from Ed on the Texas "all clear yet"?

[Wx_Warrior]

The problem is everyone has their own model likes and if one shows something you don't want it to see, then it's wrong.

EURO has been poor this season, nogaps/ukmet (no thanks). GFDL has had it's problems as has the rest.

This far out, I don't look @ the L position. Look at the 500. That will tell you where its likely headed. For now, Florida should prepare. After that, people should pay attention, not panic and model hop.

[tpr1967]

I think when we start flying recon starting today, that we should start geting better model runs with more consistency. Especially when we fly the G-IV flights starting tommorow.

[haml8]

The problem is everyone has their own model likes and if one shows something you don't want it to see, then it's wrong.

EURO has been poor this season, nogaps/ukmet (no thanks). GFDL has had it's problems as has the rest.

This far out, I don't look @ the L position. Look at the 500. That will tell you where its likely headed. For now, Florida should prepare. After that, people should pay attention, not panic and model hop.

From a professional Meterology standpoint, we should not look at models that are more than 72 hours out then? If we do, then only for a refrence post and hypothesis standpoint?

[Dean4Storms]

That 12Z GFS run looks suspicious to me. I'll have to dive into it later on.

[DESTRUCTION5]

That 12Z GFS run looks suspicious to me. I'll have to dive into it later on.

Not as suspucious as the 06Z that had a Jan type Cold Front blow Ike away..

[mattpetre]

I'm sticking by my insanely Westward forecast path that I posted on page 6. Ike has returned to the confines of the small envelope I drew. I am not reposting the image for fear that it may be construed as a model or poster with real weather knowledge. I do believe the GOM'ers out here should be paying attention to IKE though. Looks like he may have a very long lifespan.

[ROCK]

Hey Rock, have you heard from Ed on the Texas "all clear yet"?

no but I am waiting.. ...he usually gets on in the evening...