ATL: IKE Discussion

[Frank2]

As Derek alluded the surge seems to be the issue here, not the winds, but, I'm hoping that because the wind field is so large that the surge will not be as high - it'll be higher, but, perhaps spread over a larger area than it would have been, had it been a much smaller wind radii...

[baitism]

KLP124, yep becuase of the size of the hurricane the waves are really packing a big punch, very impressive.

Worst case scenario is that the EWRC is finishing, as recon seems to suggest, and landfall not only includes massive surge but also cat3/4 winds. I hope thats not the case, but with the lack of inhibiting factors other than the eyewall issue, it could.

[fasterdisaster]

As Derek said the surge seems to be the issue here, not the winds, but, I'm hoping that because the wind field is so large that the surge will not be as high - it'll be higher, but, perhaps spread over a larger area than it would had it been had it had a much smaller wind radii...

I'm afraid this isn't how it works.

[HurricaneRobert]

For god's sake people, there was no pressure increase. This was someone misinterpreting the extrapolation as hard data and when the VDM came the actual number was 1 mb higher which is what led him to believe the pressure had risen, when it hadn't.

Fine, you don't have to chew peoples' heads off about it. I haven't seen every post on the board, but what I did see was an update from the NHC with a higher pressure.

[Tireman4]

D Ortts latest track is east of Galveston

I hope it continues east of the metroplex, my apologies to those that would be in its path, feel free to wish it back to me

This is what he said:

it APPEARS right of Galveston as the points are connected by a straight line

the real path is likely right over Galveston

[Stormcenter]

Ike is NO Katrina or Rita right now. It's not even close.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

actually, the destructive potential is close to that of Katrina

The key is "potential". I just don't see Ike flooding an entire city for weeks.
But hey I've been wrong before. This of course is only MY opinion.

[yzerfan]

Now, this seems like a stupidly optimistic question, but I'm a stupid optimist. Assuming I have power Saturday evening, what are the odds of my satellite dish still being on my roof? Am I more likely to find it in my neighbor's bedroom?

Anyone have experience with satellite dishes during, say, gusts of 130 mph?

As long as it's not hit by debris, those little guys are pretty durable. Ours stayed intact, in place, and perfectly aligned through strong TS force winds during Ivan, and since the cloud cover wasn't terribly thick, we actually had signal through the entire storm. (We were the 2% of the county that never lost power during the storm for some freak reason)

[KWT]

As Derek alluded the surge seems to be the issue here, not the winds, but, I'm hoping that because the wind field is so large that the surge will not be as high - it'll be higher, but, perhaps spread over a larger area than it would have been, had it been a much smaller wind radii...

Sadly in this case, bigger storm=bigger surge.

[fasterdisaster]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

He looks better.

[Lowpressure]

From Dr. Masters blog. Posted earlier, but for the new people who haven't seen it.

The amount of water Ike has put in motion is about 50% greater than what Katrina did, and thus we can expect Ike's storm surge damage will be similar to or greater than Katrina's. The way we can estimate this damage potential is to compute the total energy of Ike's surface winds (kinetic energy). To do this, we must look at how strong the winds are, and factor in the areal coverage of these winds. Thus, we compute the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) by squaring the velocity of the wind and summing over all regions of the hurricane with tropical storm force winds or higher. This "Integrated Kinetic Energy" was recently proposed by Dr. Mark Powell of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division as a better measure of the destructive power of a hurricane's storm surge than the usual Category 1-5 Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi as a strong Category 3 hurricane, yet its storm surge was more characteristic of a Category 5 storm. Dr. Powell came up with a new scale to rate potential storm surge damage based on IKE (not to be confused with Hurricane Ike!) The new scale ranges from 1-6. Katrina and Wilma at their peaks both earned a 5.1 on this scale (Figure 2). At 9:30am EDT this morning, Ike earned a 5.6 on this scale, the highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years.

Very sobering read.

[dwg71]

my best guess looking at sat. that the center is near 26.2 and 89.3 anybody see the same.

[Frank2]

I'm afraid this isn't how it works.

I'd have to disagree - if the energy is spread over a much larger area, that will affect all aspects of the system, not just the winds...

I'd have to ask the fella in our office who worked on the original SLOSH model - he'd have an answer...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I am sweating like a race horse. I still have hopes of a Lousiana storm, but mi suegro came over and let me use his power drill, and I boarded up all the windows except the two that face my neighbors house. Better to be safe then sorry. So I put good use to that wood even though I figured 3 weeks ago I'd never need it.

Anyway, hot and humid as all get out, lots of puffy cu, but fair weather in Northern Harris County.

[fasterdisaster]

NOT OFFICIAL FORECAST: Honestly, I expect Ike to be the 2nd costliest US hurricane ever behind only Katrina.

[ConvergenceZone]

I know many folks are saying that it's going to intensify still into a cat 3, but I guess I'm in a "I'll believe it when I see it" mode.... It's the whole boy who cried wolf story....Looks like the eye is forming, but then it's not, then it looks like it is, but then it's not.... so not I'm buying it anymore...we'll see...

[KWT]

I'm afraid this isn't how it works.

I'd have to disagree - if the energy is spread over a much larger area, that will affect all aspects of the system, not just the winds...

I'd have to ask the fella in our office who worked on the original SLOSH model - he'd have an answer...

Bigger fetch of winds means greater period of space for the waves and surge to build up, ask any met on here and they will tel lyou the exact same thing Frank, a bigger storm means a bigger surge.

[fasterdisaster]

I'm afraid this isn't how it works.

I'd have to disagree - if the energy is spread over a much larger area, that will affect all aspects of the system, not just the winds...

I'd have to ask the fella in our office who worked on the original SLOSH model - he'd have an answer...

Someone already posted this but I think I'll post it again if anyone didn't see it:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fetch_(geography)

[dwg71]

NOT OFFICIAL FORECAST: Honestly, I expect Ike to be the 2nd costliest US hurricane ever behind only Katrina.

depends on landfall, Western Galveston bay, maybe right. Beaumont to SW La, wouldnt think so.

[jinftl]

Looks as if Ike is reaching an arm to the bahamas to grab in 91L!

[tailgater]

For the sake of the wobble watchers, looks almost Due West now. Making up for the NW jog.

Yes looks just about west lately and it will probably continue to wobble .