ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Texas Snowman]

The difference this time is that a visible eye has popped out clearly on sat presentation.

[Innotech]

I definitely expect to see a much stronger storm when I wake up tomorrow. Probably not Cat 4 but up in the 130 mph range. Tomorrow is gonna be interesting over here, so I need to get what sleep I can. G'night all.

[Weatherfreak000]

As I've said before movement is in the "eye of the beholder".

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

Dont use this quite yet i'd say...the eye is just outside of your view...and that can lead to a somewhat misleading outlook.


Somewhat posted a sat. loop that updates fairly quickly not too long ago...it shows the NNW jog quite clearly there.

[mattpetre]

Looks to me that the ULL low that went west of Gustav today is now following it from the S. First question, is that a proper assesment? Second: Will it tend to push it N. quicker or move it more to the W?

Ayone have any thoughts on the effects of the ULL to the S?

[Texas Snowman]

Looks to me on the latest IR sat loop that the dry air that has been problematic for Gus on the east and NE side this afternoon isn't nearly as big of an issue right now.

Anybody else see that trend?

[Weatherfreak000]

This satellite loop from NOAA ADD updates every 10 to 15 minutes...

1015 pm CDT

Refreshing this post...I find it's an excellent resource...especially now that the eye is apparent.

[Stormcenter]

I definitely expect to see a much stronger storm when I wake up tomorrow. Probably not Cat 4 but up in the 130 mph range. Tomorrow is gonna be interesting over here, so I need to get what sleep I can. G'night all.

He's doesn't have much water left to go over with and conditions in atmosphere
will not favor any extensive strengthening but hey anything is possible.

[THead]

NOLA channel 6 radar on DirecTV shows lightning returns from the eyewall.

I just found that channel on Directv, channel 361, the local NOLA channel 6. For those of you that have directv and aren't in the NOLA area, it will be great to watch for updated info.

[Texas Snowman]

Looks like it's trying to ramp up a little bit to my untrained eye. Eye showing clearly, deep red convection on IR trying to wrap around the eye, and outflow channels appear to be good in most quadrants.

Did notice it looks like a westward wobble on the last IR frame - what's recon showing for motion?

[Stormcenter]

Looks to me that the ULL low that went west of Gustav today is now following it from the S. First question, is that a proper assesment? Second: Will it tend to push it N. quicker or move it more to the W?

Ayone have any thoughts on the effects of the ULL to the S?

NW movement.

[LSU2001]

Don't really know (rank amature here) but I think that sometimes if a ULL is in proper postion, trailing I think, it can serve to help ventilate a system thereby aiding in intensification. Or it could be that position helps to modify the shear in some way.

Wish I could help more but maybe someone with much more knowledge than I can help.
Tim

[Texas Snowman]

And as far as continued strengthening goes, while it will be a stretch for Gus to ramp up to a low end 4, hey, I would have never ever bet that Fay would have strengthened over land. Anything is possible with these storms I guess.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Gustav has constantly been losing and gaining eyes all day. I just hope he gets rid of this "pinhole" eye quick.

[mattpetre]

I definitely expect to see a much stronger storm when I wake up tomorrow. Probably not Cat 4 but up in the 130 mph range. Tomorrow is gonna be interesting over here, so I need to get what sleep I can. G'night all.

He's doesn't have much water left to go over with and conditions in atmosphere
will not favor any extensive strengthening but hey anything is possible.

If he tends westward just a degree or two more he may still have much more water to cover. We will see.

[terrapintransit]

This satellite loop from NOAA ADD updates every 10 to 15 minutes...

1015 pm CDT

Refreshing this post...I find it's an excellent resource...especially now that the eye is apparent.

OMG Those people and their kids staying on that boat tonight won't have a chance at the rate this thing is going!! How could they be so stupid!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Classic developing eye with deep minus 80 convection wraping around it. If this is not strengthing then I'm lossing it. It could be getting some mid level shear in which would effect the lower levels.

[vaffie]

Don't really know (rank amature here) but I think that sometimes if a ULL is in proper postion, trailing I think, it can serve to help ventilate a system thereby aiding in intensification. Or it could be that position helps to modify the shear in some way.

Wish I could help more but maybe someone with much more knowledge than I can help.
Tim

If it's to the south, it can cause the storm to make a more westward track too.

[Innotech]

I definitely expect to see a much stronger storm when I wake up tomorrow. Probably not Cat 4 but up in the 130 mph range. Tomorrow is gonna be interesting over here, so I need to get what sleep I can. G'night all.

He's doesn't have much water left to go over with and conditions in atmosphere
will not favor any extensive strengthening but hey anything is possible.

After storms like Dolly and Epsilon, I think anything is possible with the tropics. I had a feeling a week ago that this thing was Lili redux and aside from the direction, it almost is.

[Hurricaneman13]

Looks like it is strengthening. There is a fairly well-defined eye with the eyewall trying to wrap around the eye so it could intensify. I don't think it will be above 125 mph though IMO.

[MHurricanes]

Texas,

The storm seems more symmetrical, but what would I know. The eye a few minutes ago popped out and seemed clearly defined. Is that a sign of a weakening or strengthening storm? Your thoughts?

- MHurricanes