ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

I believe the satellite and radar frames are beginning to show the beginnings of the more westwardly turn finally. The dry air and pseudo ULL to the S. are the only things that I can't figure out as far as how they will effect this more westward motion.

You got to give to the NHC and their forecasting models if this pans out. They had this as a LA. event for several days now.

[HarlequinBoy]

952 is usually a solid Cat 3 pressure.

So far the extrap pressures have been lower than the sonde pressures they find. I think a Vortex should be coming up momentarily since they have just passed the eye.

Yeah, I'm waiting for the VDM before I head off.

But even if it were 8 mb or so higher it would still usually justify a Cat 3.

[Just Joshing You]

WWL-TV 4 (Channel 310 in HOU) suggesting that NOLA, especially West Bank, has avoided a complete catastrophe because Gustav didn't become a Cat 4 as predicted.


A tad premature, IMHO, but I hope they're right...

The difference between a Cat 3 and a Cat 4 isn't all that much.. the storm surge difference would be negligible, and the winds would maybe be of hurricane force for an extra 2 or 3 hours. N.O would get cat 2-3 winds most likely either way.

[Windy]

Does anyone know what the the beam height of the radar does to the apparrent location of the eye? SAY its about 170 miles from NEW Orleans Radrad site and on a Base Reflectivity 248 NM image it is showing you the eye at about 27000 feet. When you use a program like GRLEVEL3 it always looks like it East of the Projected path. Is this the case or is it due to the angle of the beam?

Beam height from KLIX is about 28,000 feet on the NW eyewall, around 30,000 feet on the SE eyewall that is just coming into view.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

CajunMama made a post earlier and I just then noticed her location which made me start looking at the locations of a number of fellow S2Kers and it gave me a sick, sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach.

I just want all of you who are staring down the barrel of this storm to know that I am hoping and even praying that you, your families, friends and neighbors emerge on the other side of Gustav safely. Good luck to you all.

[Texas Snowman]

Ed,

I agree, a bit premature to be making such a pronouncement.

I vividly remember 8/29/08 in the early to mid afternoon as Shepherd Smith was strolling down Bourbon Street saying that New Orleans appeared to have dodged a bullet. I think some others were making similar pronouncments...all the while as people were beginning to fight for their lives and the bowl was filling up.

Tomorrow night, we'll know what the outcome is.

Right now, no way.

[Stormcenter]

WWL-TV 4 (Channel 310 in HOU) suggesting that NOLA, especially West Bank, has avoided a complete catastrophe because Gustav didn't become a Cat 4 as predicted.


A tad premature, IMHO, but I hope they're right...

No....the waters/conditions are just not there to support a Ca.4 IMO. Now of course I've been known to be wrong before so
I wouldn't be a penny on that.

[soonertwister]

952 is usually a solid Cat 3 pressure.

So far the extrap pressures have been lower than the sonde pressures they find. I think a Vortex should be coming up momentarily since they have just passed the eye.

Indeed. Wait for the drop, folks.

And on this thread it's been mentioned that intensity isn't just the pressure, but the contrast with the prevailing pressure. We just got a report in the last hour of 1005 mb in Mobile, so that's a hint.

[Windy]

Interesting time for an eye to open up.

[Stormcenter]

Ed,

I agree, a bit premature to be making such a pronouncement.

I vividly remember 8/29/08 in the early to mid afternoon as Shepherd Smith was strolling down Bourbon Street saying that New Orleans appeared to have dodged a bullet. I think some others were making similar pronouncments...all the while as people were beginning to fight for their lives and the bowl was filling up.

Tomorrow night, we'll know what the outcome is.

Right now, no way.

Anyway it's too early to make any statement like that but they probably made a disclaimer aftre saying it.

[Dean4Storms]

Sure looks like a more westward turn has begun.

[RL3AO]

Dropsonde: 955mb

[kurtpage]

31/2345 UTC 26.9N 87.6W T5.5/5.5 GUSTAV -- Atlantic Ocean

[lele25]

Hi y'all...I'm new but have been hovering over the forum for a few days now. I live on the Bay in Point Clear Al, which is on the Eastern Shore of Mobile Bay. For a few days now my husband and I have gone from concerned, to really worried, and now for the past 12 hrs we were feeling okay. My sister, in B'Ham just called and said that there is a wobble to the north that might bring it in further east than expected??? If this is true then we are extremely concerned because the first floor of our home was flooded during Katrina....we rode out because the focus was on NOLA, as it is once again. At the moment we are feeling sporadic wind gusts and rain, so we do not know what to do. The local news is not saying anything regarding our area nor did they prior/during Katrina. Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

[WxGuy1]

952 is usually a solid Cat 3 pressure.

So far the extrap pressures have been lower than the sonde pressures they find. I think a Vortex should be coming up momentarily since they have just passed the eye.

Yeah, I'm waiting for the VDM before I head off.

But even if it were 8 mb or so higher it would still usually justify a Cat 3.

Last I checked, I think the wind field was expanding. Generally, if the wind field expands (i.e. the storm gets larger), and the pressure stays constant, the wind speeds will drop (as the pressure gradient is reduced). So, with Gustav expanding, its central pressure should actually need to drop even to keep the same winds.

Again, the eye that poked out for an hour or two has quickly distorted again and cooled, just as every other pseudo-eye has done so far today. Last IR image I have is from 0430 UTC --> http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... e&itype=ir . I think it's fair to say that Gustav is holding steady, and it will probably do so with only relatively minor fluctuations.

FWIW, the difference in Gustav passing 20 miles SW of New Orleans and Gustav passing 35-45+ miles SW of New Orleans is huge. Remember, the winds (and pressure gradient) ramp up extremely quickly as you near the eye. That also means that the ramp down equally as quickly when you move away from the eye. I think that difference, in this case, may well be the difference between experiencing a massive flood (a la Katrina) and experiencing primarily intermittent leaking issues (local flooding). We shall see.

Regardless, the shear and some dry air around has likely kept Gustav from being Katrina II.

The highest SFMR winds that I can find from this latest pass are only 78 kts. Color me somewhat unimpressed.

[smw1981]

Ed,

I agree, a bit premature to be making such a pronouncement.

I vividly remember 8/29/08 in the early to mid afternoon as Shepherd Smith was strolling down Bourbon Street saying that New Orleans appeared to have dodged a bullet. I think some others were making similar pronouncments...all the while as people were beginning to fight for their lives and the bowl was filling up.

Tomorrow night, we'll know what the outcome is.

Right now, no way.

I think they meant (or I took it as) NO dodged a bullet by Katrina (the hurricane itself) not causing devastating damage...since it was the levees breaking that caused the damage, not the hurricane. I may be wrong, but I remember thinking the same thing the day Katrina hit... that being said, I definitely think it is a little premature to make such a statement now!

[Stormcenter]

Sure looks like a more westward turn has begun.

Oh yes it is definitely obvious now.

[pablolopez26]

Sure looks like a more westward turn has begun.

Oh yes it is definitely obvious now.

Can you post some images? How sharp is the turn?

[Texas Snowman]

Is it a true turn or a wobble - time will tell.

[Stormcenter]

Sure looks like a more westward turn has begun.

Oh yes it is definitely obvious now.

Can you post some images? How sharp is the turn?

What do you think?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes