ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Dean4Storms]

I agree with Dean. The circulation is exposed to the north and north-west of the circulation center. Convection is currently on the south and east sides of the circulation center. And yes, there is some parallax error involved in reading satellite images......MGC

I believe derek said a few pages back that recon confirmed that the center was not exposed.

And yes Derek was right. At the time Recon reported that it was nearly what 3-4 hours ago, the convection must have waned as I can clearly make out the northern half quadrant of the LLC now, especially the NW side.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

[Stormcenter]

It really looks like the center is trying to jump SW. The last visible shows the upper part of the storm's LL bands kind of give out while the bottom SW section cranks up?

I'm not sure how you can come to that conclusion by looking at this or any other satellite loop. It's just not moving that fast.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[wxmann_91]

One thing I haven't seen mentioned- watch the outflow from the thunderstorms to the north because they could have a negative impact on Edouard. I've seen this happen many, many times, especially in fledgling storms.

[Stormcenter]

I agree with Dean. The circulation is exposed to the north and north-west of the circulation center. Convection is currently on the south and east sides of the circulation center. And yes, there is some parallax error involved in reading satellite images......MGC

I believe derek said a few pages back that recon confirmed that the center was not exposed.

And yes Derek was right. At the time Recon reported that it was nearly what 3-4 hours ago, the convection must have waned as I can clearly make out the northern half quadrant of the LLC now, especially the NW side.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

Well I see what you looking at...who knows.

[MiamiensisWx]

One thing I haven't seen mentioned- watch the outflow from the thunderstorms to the north because they could have a negative impact on Edouard. I've seen this happen many, many times, especially in fledgling storms.

I mentioned it in one of my previous posts...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1756921#p1756921

"Regardless, there are a few factors that make me more conservative on the prospects of Edouard attaining hurricane intensity. Convective outflow from the passing MCS to the NW and overland convection to the north has been inducing upper level shear over the system. This may be an issue, even as the TC eventually turns west and northerly shear on the east side of the H5 ridge decreases. Note the multiple Mesoscale Convective Systems rotating around the upper level ridge. This may slightly hinder Edouard and prevent the chances of a more extreme intensity solution from verifying, despite an increasingly ideal upper air regime."

[KWT]

Yep northern side of the broader circulation is exposed thanks to shear and dry air from land but the center itself, the deepest pressure and therefore the part that matters the most is still according to recon and images I've seen under the convection on the NW side.

wxmann_91, hmmm good point!

[Dean4Storms]

It really looks like the center is trying to jump SW. The last visible shows the upper part of the storm's LL bands kind of give out while the bottom SW section cranks up?

I'm not sure how you can come to that conclusion by looking at this or any other satellite loop. It's just not moving that fast.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Like I said, it is not totally exposed, but I am taking into account that the cloud tops from the convection is blocking out all that I'm seeing. If you and I could look straight down and not have cirrus billowing out directly under what we are seeing you would see something different and that would be half the LLC exposed. Does that make any sense?

[Nimbus]

A little recent surface pressure drop south of the system at the mid gulf buoy.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

Could that mean the surface trough is broadening?

[MiamiensisWx]

Like I said, it is not totally exposed, but I am taking into account that the cloud tops from the convection is blocking out all that I'm seeing. If you and I could look straight down and not have cirrus billowing out directly under what we are seeing you would see something different and that would be half the LLC exposed. Does that make any sense?

I concur - I said it was "partially covered" by thunderstorms, several of which were initiating over the S half of the LLC.

[lrak]

Like I said, it is not totally exposed, but I am taking into account that the cloud tops from the convection is blocking out all that I'm seeing. If you and I could look straight down and not have cirrus billowing out directly under what we are seeing you would see something different and that would be half the LLC exposed. Does that make any sense?

I concur - I said it was "partially covered" by thunderstorms, several of which were initiating over the S half of the LLC.

How far south does the South part extend?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

[Dean4Storms]

From what I see, I don't see any RI happening tonight unless the shear relaxes. All the convection is on the southern and eastern quadrant. I think we'll see gradual slow strengthening till that changes.

[KWT]

I think we are all on the same page with regards to the situation with the LLC, the convection is clearly firing on the southern side rather then the northern side.

Dean I agree though from looking at the shear maps there isn't actually all that much shear on this system, its probably a combo of shear and also that mid-level dry air which is really stopping the inflow from getting going on that northern side.

[Stormcenter]

Here is another satellite loop angle to look at the storm.
The loop takes awhile to load up (we at least for me it did) so please be patient.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[lrak]

I think we are all on the same page with regards to the situation with the LLC, the convection is clearly firing on the southern side rather then the northern side.

Would that help relocate the center to that side?

[Stormcenter]

From what I see, I don't see any RI happening tonight unless the shear relaxes. All the convection is on the southern and eastern quadrant. I think we'll see gradual slow strengthening till that changes.

As we know with all know with tropical systems things can change for the better or worse in a matter of hours.

[lrak]

I was thinking earlier that Dolly had a stronger WSW side

[Chacor]

That's not very impressive convection.

[Chacor]

A reminder that there's a forecast challenge for Edouard up in the forecasting contest forum right now.

[Dean4Storms]

Here is another satellite loop angle to look at the storm.
The loop takes awhile to load up (we at least for me it did) so please be patient.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

That loop shows exactly what I was saying, early on you could see the convection all over the developing LLC but it has since moved westward yet you don't see the cirrus from convection expanding westward as quickly with the LLC as the circulation becomes more apparent.

[cycloneye]

The latest best track from ATCF for Edouard:


AL, 05, 2008080400, , BEST, 0, 281N, 882W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 30, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EDOUARD, M,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/