ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

I think they do this twofold.. one to not totally freak out SFL and also to CYA to make sure in case it does shift back south that they don't look foolish for a significant shift. I do wonder what that cone will look like 24 hours from now, as I would imagine at that point SFL is going to be in the outer edge of the big "5day" cone.

IMO, SFL has to be in that 5 day cone soon. I just can't see the Haiti/Cuba track and the NHC seems confident Hanna is not going to turn N or NE at this point, maybe later in the forecast but Hanna should be very close to SFL at that point.

I would have to agree with you Blown Away...I have never really bought into that SW dive since it began. A more westerly track with a ever so slight dip SW on the way may be more like it. I think the models might be overestimating the strength of the ridge. As far as the ridge goes there is definitely a ridge in place because the flow is from the east. My office is right on the ocean in Fort Pierce and we have been getting a pretty stiff breeze from the ESE today. I would think for Hanna to make the dive SW that we would be getting a breeze from the NE. IMO, the current flow sets it up to come right for us (South Florida).

SFT

[Evil Jeremy]

The NHC is still on the south end of the guidance.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_08.gif

[blp]

Not sure but seems like the LLC is exposed again. Around 21.8N 64W. Just like yesterday afternoon.

[Bgator]

The model plot looks like someone took some crayons and started scribbling. haha

[BigA]

Not sure but seems like the LLC is exposed again. Around 21.8N 64W. Just like yesterday afternoon.

This will be a chronic problem for the storm until the ULL dies or moves away. Hanna will probably produce another epic burst after sundown tonight to cover the center; this is how it will survive until the shear lessens.

[Evil Jeremy]

I have come up with my nickname for Hanna: "Hanna Two-Face", like from Dark Knight. The left half of Hanna is being sheared to pieces, while the right side is healthy with convection:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-l.jpg

[Wannabewxman79]

I posted this earlier but I don't think it went through. I don't post much, more of an observer but there are some people on here that think ever strom that develops in the atlantic is going to go through Florida. Now, granted, you guys have had a few years of bad luck (Wilmington,NC here so I know from the mid to late 90s) but just because a storm is in the Atlantic some 400 miles from shore in 5 days by the models that does not mean it will end up in your backyard. Most of the storms this time of year get caught up in troughs and such and go NW, NNW, N, and so on. So just sit back and see what happens as you all know crap will change alot in the next few days.

[Vortex]

from the sunsentinel.com website..will they ever get a clue. Since when has hanna ever aimed at PR.


Gustav grows to hurricane; Hanna aims at Puerto Rico
Aug 29, 2008 17:04 -0400
Updated: 37 minutes ago

[cycloneye]

from the sunsentinel.com website..will they ever get a clue. Since when has hanna ever aimed at PR.


Gustav grows to hurricane; Hanna aims at Puerto Rico
Aug 29, 2008 17:04 -0400
Updated: 37 minutes ago

What? Sunny skies and hot temps here in San Juan.

[cpdaman]

hanna is "streaking west" i.e bare naked

i have her at 21.8 / 64.3 as of 515pm pretty easy to see on the visible

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

AMAZING how fast she accelerated this afternoon, she is going to literally go over the center of the ULL around midnite-2 am (at her current speed) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

what happens when she does this? does she get blown apart, or stacked any pro's. seems like no intensification for while (probably some slow weakening as increasing southerly shear overspread even her eastern side.

Pro's could going directly over the ULL later tonite kill her, serious question

[NativeFloridaGirl]

from the sunsentinel.com website..will they ever get a clue. Since when has hanna ever aimed at PR.


Gustav grows to hurricane; Hanna aims at Puerto Rico
Aug 29, 2008 17:04 -0400
Updated: 37 minutes ago

What? Sunny skies and hot temps here in San Juan.

Don't guess someone passed geography at the Sun Sentinel. I had to look at that twice myself!

~Beth~

[KWT]

Yep looks like its getting exposed again as it speeds up, though suspect convection will still keep bursting given how much energy there is.

[Bocadude85]

hanna is "streaking west" i.e bare naked

i have her at 21.8 / 64.3 as of 515pm pretty easy to see on the visible

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

AMAZING how fast she accelerated this afternoon, she is going to literally go over the center of the ULL around midnite-2 am (at her current speed) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

what happens when she does this? does she get blown apart, or stacked any pro's. seems like no intensification for while (probably some slow weakening as increasing southerly shear overspread even her eastern side.

Pro's could going directly over the ULL later tonite kill her, serious question

I dont know but that ULL sure looks to be weakening to me

[cpdaman]

sounds like NHC has very low confidence that the ULL is going anywhere

i'm not so sure a LLC can pass directly over a ULL (weakening sloooowlly or not) and survive , are there any pro's who could answer this question

hanna's LLC is very stubborn it is going DUE west it was 21.7 and 62.4 earlier now it is 21.75 64.3 or about 272 degrees. not sure how NHC got 295 motion, maybe someone could explain that to me

IMO this is done popping convection anywhere near the center for a good 12 hours ok rant over , just gets to me when i see a forecast that doesn't really make sense. 295/9? ull moving west?

[captain east]

Now max mayfield is saying this storm is going to go to the southern Bahamas and maybe Cuba as a TS.

[Patrick99]

Well geez, if you look at that current forecast, we are basically out of the mix. Somehow I just can't buy it making such a prolonged SW dive. And why would it necessarily weaken while doing so? Betsy didn't.

[AJC3]

Well geez, if you look at that current forecast, we are basically out of the mix. Somehow I just can't buy it making such a prolonged SW dive. And why would it necessarily weaken while doing so? Betsy didn't.

Look at the 250MB windspeed progs.

Edit. Better yet, here's a 4 panel prog for 96 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml

The center position, which lines up reasonably well with the NHC forecast, is about to get blasted by a N-NW 200MB jetstreak of 40+ knots. This should induce weakening, assuming it verifies close to reality. All the globals pretty much show the same thing.

[fci]

JB on FOX.. Hanna will hit Southern Florida as a Cat 3/4

We'll see....

Well it sounds like JB is sticking his neck out there again...I tend to respect his knowledge but I wonder sometimes how much keeping people watching FNC has to do with the hype that he places out there. I mean Miami has to be a very large market for FNC...and by the way, I actually like FNC and the "no spin zone".

SFT

JB also had south florida in the Gustav cone a few short days ago.

[cpdaman]

i feel alot better about this storm this afternoon than this morning

short term looks like horrible conditions

medium term looks like best shot for anything

long term looks like horrible condtions

[KWT]

Well the thing is the models forecasting of shear isn't exactly great, is it Gustav's outflow that is cuasing the shear by the way post 96hrs?