ATL: IKE Discussion

[Wx_Warrior]

Storm surge in Lake Charles (LA)? Keep getting people from LC asking me about this. LC is about 35 miles east of Orange.

[HarlequinBoy]

Me neither. It will be a rough ride, but if you are prepared, have the essentials, and pick up things out of your yard, just ride it out.

Yeah, I just told her to buy what she'd need for possibly a few days without power.

[funster]

What you are talking about is solid body rotation. A hurricane vortex *approximates* (key word here is approximate) what is known as a Rankine combined vortex. In this kind of vortex, outside the radius of maximum winds, the winds increase rapidly as you move inward. Once you reach the RMW, the winds drop off toward the center of the storm, in such a fashion that the fluid inside the RMW rotates like a solid body (like a carousel, as you mentioned). Looking at Ike now, the area near the center of the storm where the clouds appear to be rotating more slowly than those around it is that solid-body rotation region inside the RMW.

Closer look at the 'eye'. Look quick before it gets dark. Quite impressive, unfortunately.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ible_float

I see some new convective bursts as well. Not a good time for this to intensify.

[Solaris]

Thats the latest water vapor pic, no eye for me, instead it looks like dry air still coming in

[txwatcher91]

M. E03/16/10

Does this mean 3 eyewalls?

[feederband]

Me neither. It will be a rough ride, but if you are prepared, have the essentials, and pick up things out of your yard, just ride it out.

Yeah, I just told her to buy what she'd need for possibly a few days without power.

As large as this is...More than a few days..

[fasterdisaster]

Don't use water vapor for looking for any type of intensification. It's probably the last place an eye shows up.

[fasterdisaster]

M. E03/16/10

Does this mean 3 eyewalls?

No, it means it's elliptical.

[jinftl]

The link below is a list of pet friendly shelters.....so there is no excuse to stay in surge zone. If not for themselves, protect their pets and bring them to safe place.

http://www.petfriendlytravel.com/?page=pet_shelters#TX

This is made more complicated if they have pets who would not do well if separated from their owners. Unfortunately, if they stay in high risk areas they may find themselves separated only to come together on "rainbow bridge".

Both fear and ignorance are great paralyzers and I suppose many are suffering from one or both. IMHO, very strong language from the highest authorities need to try to get through to those who are risking all by not leaving.

Lynn, this nearly happened in my family - wouldn't leave for a storm because of the pets. I would think the best thing to do - won't do much good now, but for future ref - at the beginning of hurricane season, find a vet, kennel or something and make arrangements for them to take the pets on short notice - someplace inland and out of harm's way.

Doesn't help though that fear does paralyze, and as someone pointed out earlier in the thread, people in these areas, TX and LA have hurricane fatigue. OMG it has to wear you down when the storms keep coming.

[RL3AO]

M. E03/16/10

Does this mean 3 eyewalls?

To it means an elipitical eyewall with the axis being 30 to 210 degrees with the major axis being 16 nm and the minor axis being 10nm.

[txwatcher91]

M. E03/16/10

Does this mean 3 eyewalls?

No, it means it's elliptical.

I know it is elliptical, but the numbers, 3, 16, and 10, aren't those 3 eyewalls, or is the 10 part of the old eye?

[Annie Oakley]

Holy Cow!!!!!! (sorry ya'll)

[HurryKane]

I'm thinking the same thing David. We can't board our windows: 3 bays, and they're all recessed in brick. No wood frames to screw into for clips to grip. I figure our front rooms are hosed.

This may be a little late (just got home from school and am playing catch-up with reading), but... have you tried the Plylox clips? My sister and her husband have used those. Their windows are recessed in brick and they work well. I'm not sure if Lowe's or Home Depot would still have them, but it's an idea. Also, as someone metioned on the board, I've seen many people do that with a crossbar-type 2X4-- just cut the ends at opposite diagonals and slide it over the board until it fits tight. I've also seen people use 2X4s as braces against the window boards, with the braces running upward from the ground. Does that make sense? It's hard to describe without drawing a picture. Also, diapers are great for soaking up water that may be driven in through windowseals or under doors. I've heard that a good place to protect pictures is in plastic containers or garbage bags (double or triple bagged) in a bathtub as the pipes provide extra support for the walls. That's where I've stored the pictures we couldn't take with us. Fortunately, we've never had to test that theory and I hope y'all won't either. Hang in there--we are all praying for y'all out there!

I'm thinking for a bay window recessed in brick, you could cut the plywood to fit the brick edges minus 1/4" allowance (or whatever it is for Plylox clips) for the edges which will be next to brick, and then use hinges to hook together the boards where the bay window sections come together--like a really big tri-fold brochure.

[fasterdisaster]

MAX FL WIND 101 KT NE QUAD 18:54:30 Z
SFC WIND SEEN VISUALLY

I could be wrong, but I think this means they're going to raise winds to 105 mph since I think that's confirmation that winds are going to the surface.

[RL3AO]

MAX FL WIND 101 KT NE QUAD 18:54:30 Z
SFC WIND SEEN VISUALLY

I could be wrong, but I think this means they're going to raise winds to 105 mph since I think that's confirmation that winds are going to the surface.

The surface wind observed visually was: D. 50 kt

[PTPatrick]

is it just me or has outflow improved?

My cousin lives in Kemah with a view of the Bay. They obviously evacuated but what kinda surge would Kemah be looking at if the middle or Galveston Island Landall comes true.

[Rod Hagen]

probably coming under a bit more influence from the anomaly shown at 90ºW on http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8254go.jpg

[fasterdisaster]

MAX FL WIND 101 KT NE QUAD 18:54:30 Z
SFC WIND SEEN VISUALLY

I could be wrong, but I think this means they're going to raise winds to 105 mph since I think that's confirmation that winds are going to the surface.

The surface wind observed visually was: D. 50 kt

Oh lol, oops, sorry guys.

[Smurfwicked]

Okay, I am watching KHOU's live coverage and they are reporting that the city of Galveston has moved its emergency operations center to the San Luis hotel. This hotel sits right along the beach according to live shots. I realize there is a seawall and that the hotel is 20 feet high, but to me that seems silly. Thoughts?

Sounds stupid to me. I guess I'm confused with how their seawall works anyways because my understanding is that is just a wall (not to be confused with a levee) that protects half the island and its not enclosed (or so I thought) which would allow the water to pour in at the end of it wouldn't it?

Local met Greg Bostwick said everybody south of I-10 in Jefferson & Orange counties should not choose to "ride this one out" as he put it.

[shah8]

The interesting part of that recon is that the surface data, when it was present, is showing a more traditional relationship of flight to surface winds.