ATL: IKE Discussion

[tolakram]

I'm not sure what to make of the overall pattern. One thing to note is the heavy convection is spreading out.

AVN from a few hours ago:


Current:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

I don't believe this storm will ever get its act together...NO CAT3.

Now 85 knots
6 85 knots
12 90 knots
24 95 knots
36 95 knots
48 70 knots inland

This storm will be very big, but this will not go through a RIC based on its size, disorganizion, and some other factors.

[JPmia]

for most people out of the surge zone and in a sturdy house with ideally some window protection, the real experience of ike will begin when the winds die down....and there is no power for possibly weeks.

http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/

If anyone who lives in the impact zone or evac zone is interested, this is a link to a bunch of Google Earth Maps showing wind, surge, rainfall amounts, model tracks, and forecast tracks and much more. I know this was posted before, but it really helped me during Wilma because I was able to locate my neighborhood on the aerial and then click on the wind and surge layers to see how my neighborhood would be impacted by the storm. This information is updated with each NHC update.

Current track would put most of the Houston metro area under minimal Cat 1 to Cat 2 winds and the Galveston area would get the worst with Cat 3 winds and much higher surge.

Indeed, the storm itself is actually an awe inspiring experience mostly because there is nothing you can do but ride it out (or get out)...but the aftermath is the ABSOLUTE WORST. Just be safe over there y'all!

[WxGuy1]

I thought derek said dry air had little impact on convection WITHOUT the presence of shear

That is what he said. However, I just can't believe that dry air can NEVER have an effect w/o shear. Sure, shear may help the dry air entrain into the core, but it was very obvious yesterday that dry air was entraining into the storm even in the presence of weak winds. I should have made a little graphic on the visible satellite image, but you could plainly see a wedge of dry air (on vis sat) spiral inward towards the center. So, I guess I'd say that shear HELPS the dry air impede storm intensification (or helps weaken it), but I wouldn't say you that NEED shear for the dry air to be an impediment.

We have seen cases in which a storm that tracked over land was never able to reorganize enough for significant intensification. Gustav was that way, as was Ernesto of 05, and may others. Yes, the environments may have been difficult, but the common theme is that the storms did not intensify when it appeared that they otherwise should have. There are other storms, however, that redeveloped rapidly after crossing land (e.g. Dennis), so who knows. Ike survived the first pass over Cuba just fine, but the second pass (over the western end of Cuba) seems to have disrupted the structure/organization significantly. Since that time, Ike just hasn't been able to get it together in the form of a single eywall and intensification. Granted, this is NOT to say that Ike is not a very impressive storm (the surge will be very large!), nor is it to say that I don't think Ike won't strengthen. Indeed, I do expect Ike will be Cat 3 near landfall, but the clock is ticking.

[Bolebuns]

I thought derek said dry air had little impact on convection WITHOUT the presence of shear

Then someone please explain to this novice what is holding this thing back.

Warm water + no shear + great outflow = a storm having trouble getting its act together? (relatively speaking, that is)

[Lowpressure]

Looks more symetrical with better outflow in the nw and west quads.

[RL3AO]

I thought derek said dry air had little impact on convection WITHOUT the presence of shear

Then someone please explain to this novice what is holding this thing back.

Warm water + no shear + great outflow = a storm having trouble getting its act together? (relatively speaking, that is)

That would be large size + two eyewalls

[jinftl]

exactly, the weathernut in me find the storm itself fascinating...but the mind-numbing quiet and boredom of day after day with no power...you suddenly become very aware of when the sun goes down!

for most people out of the surge zone and in a sturdy house with ideally some window protection, the real experience of ike will begin when the winds die down....and there is no power for possibly weeks.

http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/

If anyone who lives in the impact zone or evac zone is interested, this is a link to a bunch of Google Earth Maps showing wind, surge, rainfall amounts, model tracks, and forecast tracks and much more. I know this was posted before, but it really helped me during Wilma because I was able to locate my neighborhood on the aerial and then click on the wind and surge layers to see how my neighborhood would be impacted by the storm. This information is updated with each NHC update.

Current track would put most of the Houston metro area under minimal Cat 1 to Cat 2 winds and the Galveston area would get the worst with Cat 3 winds and much higher surge.

Indeed, the storm itself is actually an awe inspiring experience mostly because there is nothing you can do but ride it out (or get out)...but the aftermath is the ABSOLUTE WORST. Just be safe over there y'all!

[tolakram]

I thought derek said dry air had little impact on convection WITHOUT the presence of shear

Then someone please explain to this novice what is holding this thing back.

Warm water + no shear + great outflow = a storm having trouble getting its act together? (relatively speaking, that is)

I don't think anyone is 100% certain and that means no one can be certain of how strong Ike will get because we don't know what's holding him back.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I thought derek said dry air had little impact on convection WITHOUT the presence of shear

Then someone please explain to this novice what is holding this thing back.

Warm water + no shear + great outflow = a storm having trouble getting its act together? (relatively speaking, that is)

That would be large size + two eyewalls

Wow it still has two eye walls. That thing won't die!

[artist]

a met on Fox26 said Ike is still dealing with the high pressure over TX at the upper levels.

[abajan]

There's no reason for people not to evacuate without their pets. The hurricane warning for those areas around Houston and Galveston say explicitly to evacuate WITH your pets. It sounds like Texas has its act together on that issue.

Kristi

Wow! That's an awful lot of negatives in one sentence. You meant to say that there's no reason for people not to evacuate with their pets, right?

[debbiet]

[quote]Then someone please explain to this novice what is holding this thing back.[quote]

I would have to say God...thank goodness!

[Annie Oakley]

Galveston County EOC and the NWS HGX are in a concrete bunker supposedly designed for a Cat 5. If I were the mayor of Galveston, I'd cross the causeway to the mainland side of the county and ride out the storm there.

And what does that have to do with the price of tea in China?
Don't really understand your post? What does it matter where they are etc-we are here to monitor the storm from the fine folks at Storm2k.....

[abajan]

There's no reason for people not to evacuate without their pets. The hurricane warning for those areas around Houston and Galveston say explicitly to evacuate WITH your pets. It sounds like Texas has its act together on that issue.

Kristi

Wow! That's an awful lot of negatives in one sentence. You meant to say that there's no reason for people not to evacuate with their pets, right?

[Bolebuns]

I thought derek said dry air had little impact on convection WITHOUT the presence of shear

Then someone please explain to this novice what is holding this thing back.

Warm water + no shear + great outflow = a storm having trouble getting its act together? (relatively speaking, that is)

I don't think anyone is 100% certain and that means no one can be certain of how strong Ike will get because we don't know what's holding him back.

Ok. So here is another novice question...

Let's say that Ike gains more strength than forecast. Could/would that have any effect on his path (i.e a tad more west or east) and if so, in which direction. That is, I hear some folks say that a stronger storm would "feed a high" and move more west, and others suggest that a stronger storm might move more northward. I am confused on this one.

BTW, I have been visiting this site for several years now, and I love it. Thanks Guys!

[Weatherfreak14]

ok ill take back getting more organized, it looks like the eyewall is falling apart...

[jinftl]

As long as the experts at the NHC have a handle on....and it sounds like they very much do.

FACTORS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE THE LARGE BROAD WIND FIELD...STRONG WINDS OVER
AREAS OF LIMITED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PATH OF
IKE...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS THAT IS FORCING DESCENT
AND CREATING DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. INDEED...
CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF IKE HAS BEEN RATHER THIN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.

I thought derek said dry air had little impact on convection WITHOUT the presence of shear

Then someone please explain to this novice what is holding this thing back.

Warm water + no shear + great outflow = a storm having trouble getting its act together? (relatively speaking, that is)

I don't think anyone is 100% certain and that means no one can be certain of how strong Ike will get because we don't know what's holding him back.

[Annie Oakley]

Galveston County EOC and the NWS HGX are in a concrete bunker supposedly designed for a Cat 5. If I were the mayor of Galveston, I'd cross the causeway to the mainland side of the county and ride out the storm there.

And what does that have to do with the price of tea in China?
We are here to monitor the storm from the incredible hosts! They,like the emergency management people,put in hours and hours of time to help us. Let us all appreciate them.

[RBDnhm]

I am not sure whether the Astros game is an indication of whether Houston is taking this seriously or not, but the crowd has to be the thinnest I have ever seen. Watching it on TV, in a row of perhaps 20 people, it looks like 3 are there. Does that mean 85% of Houston fans have evacuated?