SE Indian Ocean: Invest 93S

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK


TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:30 pm CST Tuesday 19 February 2008

A developing TROPICAL LOW 1003 hPa is situated near Cobourg Peninsula.
At 11am it was near latitude 11.5S, longitude 132.0E, about 150 km
northeast of Darwin, and slow moving. The LOW is expected to remain slow moving
over the Top End during the next few days but may drift into the TIMOR SEA by
Friday.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next
few days is estimated to be:
Wednesday: low,
Thursday: low,
Friday: moderate.

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

[Cyclenall]

I think that should be an invest right now. It's looks pretty strong convection wise.

[HURAKAN]

I agree. When it becomes an Invest this thread will be moved towards "Active Storms"

[Sanibel]

Looks like cyclogenesis, but where is the center? Over land?

[Cyclone1]

Looks like a TC already to me, but then again, I don't know much about the southern hemisphere.

[G.B.]

[Crostorm]

[G.B.]

Wow there's a lot of convection.

[Chacor]

Indeed, that's very deep convection...

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

here is radar from Broome some hour ago

[Tampa_God]

I knew something would occur with this, I said it in another thread

[Sanibel]

Broome is hot and deserty. They are getting some gusher rain. Looks like it is moving offshore?

[Craiga74]

Wind shear may become a factor with this one I think. Be interesting to see if it gathers momentum over the weekend

[Craiga74]

Wind shear may become a factor with this one I think. Be interesting to see if it gathers momentum over the weekend

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Thursday the 21st of February 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

At midday, a low was located over the north Kimberley. This low is expected to
move west over the next few days and move off the west Kimberley coast late
Friday or on Saturday and possibly intensify.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the region in the next three
days is:
Friday : Low
Saturday : Moderate
Sunday : Moderate

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[Craiga74]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Friday the 22nd of February 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

At midday Friday, a low was located near the west Kimberley coast. The low is
currently very weak and model guidance indicates the system will have limited
potential for development as it moves steadily west under unfavourable upper
winds.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the region in the next three
days is:
Saturday : Low
Sunday : Low
Monday : Moderate

Not as promising anymore

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Looks like it could be off the coast now.

[Tampa_God]

Hmmm... I don't know what to say about this. It looks completely dead, but I think the heart is still beating.