SE Indian Ocean: Invest 93S

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HURAKAN
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SE Indian Ocean: Invest 93S

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Feb 19, 2008 10:23 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK


TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:30 pm CST Tuesday 19 February 2008

A developing TROPICAL LOW 1003 hPa is situated near Cobourg Peninsula.
At 11am it was near latitude 11.5S, longitude 132.0E, about 150 km
northeast of Darwin, and slow moving. The LOW is expected to remain slow moving
over the Top End during the next few days but may drift into the TIMOR SEA by
Friday.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next
few days is estimated to be:
Wednesday: low,
Thursday: low,
Friday: moderate.

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

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#2 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:58 am

I think that should be an invest right now. It's looks pretty strong convection wise.
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Feb 19, 2008 12:02 pm

I agree. When it becomes an Invest this thread will be moved towards "Active Storms"
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Re: Darwin Disturbance

#4 Postby Sanibel » Tue Feb 19, 2008 1:19 pm

Looks like cyclogenesis, but where is the center? Over land?
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#5 Postby Cyclone1 » Tue Feb 19, 2008 3:22 pm

Looks like a TC already to me, but then again, I don't know much about the southern hemisphere.
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Timor Sea: Invest 93S

#6 Postby G.B. » Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:47 pm

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Re: Timor Sea: Invest 93S

#7 Postby Crostorm » Wed Feb 20, 2008 2:32 am

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Re: Timor Sea: Invest 93S

#8 Postby G.B. » Wed Feb 20, 2008 6:23 am

Wow there's a lot of convection.

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#9 Postby Chacor » Wed Feb 20, 2008 6:36 am

Indeed, that's very deep convection...
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Re: Timor Sea: Invest 93S

#10 Postby Crostorm » Wed Feb 20, 2008 4:20 pm

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Re: Timor Sea: Invest 93S

#11 Postby Crostorm » Wed Feb 20, 2008 4:53 pm

here is radar from Broome some hour ago :eek:

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Re: Timor Sea: Invest 93S

#12 Postby Tampa_God » Wed Feb 20, 2008 5:44 pm

I knew something would occur with this, I said it in another thread

:D
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Re: Timor Sea: Invest 93S

#13 Postby Sanibel » Thu Feb 21, 2008 12:06 am

Broome is hot and deserty. They are getting some gusher rain. Looks like it is moving offshore?
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#14 Postby Craiga74 » Thu Feb 21, 2008 9:26 am

Wind shear may become a factor with this one I think. Be interesting to see if it gathers momentum over the weekend
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#15 Postby Craiga74 » Thu Feb 21, 2008 9:29 am

Wind shear may become a factor with this one I think. Be interesting to see if it gathers momentum over the weekend
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 21, 2008 10:25 am

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Thursday the 21st of February 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

At midday, a low was located over the north Kimberley. This low is expected to
move west over the next few days and move off the west Kimberley coast late
Friday or on Saturday and possibly intensify.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the region in the next three
days is:
Friday : Low
Saturday : Moderate
Sunday : Moderate

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **
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Re: Timor Sea: Invest 93S

#17 Postby Craiga74 » Fri Feb 22, 2008 1:33 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Friday the 22nd of February 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

At midday Friday, a low was located near the west Kimberley coast. The low is
currently very weak and model guidance indicates the system will have limited
potential for development as it moves steadily west under unfavourable upper
winds.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the region in the next three
days is:
Saturday : Low
Sunday : Low
Monday : Moderate

Not as promising anymore
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 22, 2008 8:41 am

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Re: Timor Sea: Invest 93S

#19 Postby Sanibel » Fri Feb 22, 2008 1:55 pm

Looks like it could be off the coast now.
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Re: Timor Sea: Invest 93S

#20 Postby Tampa_God » Sat Feb 23, 2008 6:58 pm

Hmmm... I don't know what to say about this. It looks completely dead, but I think the heart is still beating.
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