SE Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Durga [ TC 29S ]

[HURAKAN]

WTXS22 PGTW 212330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2S 86.9E TO 10.5S 95.2E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
212230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.4S
87.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6S
86.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 87.5E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING DISTURBANCE WITH FORMATIVE CON-
VECTIVE BANDING. A 211923Z AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHTENING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
SOUTH WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC AND
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY BROAD MIDLATITUDE
TROUGHING SOUTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 222330Z.//

[Chacor]

Nothing from Met France.

[HURAKAN]

TPXS11 PGTW 220020

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96S (E OF DIEGO GARCIA)

B. 21/2330Z

C. 8.7S

D. 89.0E

E. SIX/MET7

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (21/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR

38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS AN UNREP
1.5. DBO DT.

UEHARA

[HURAKAN]

22/0830 UTC 8.0S 91.2E T2.0/2.0 96S -- South Indian Ocean

[wyq614]

Enormous wind shear is right ahead of the system. I'm aftaid that the TCFA may be cancelled.

[P.K.]

Thread title needs updating.

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

EXTREME WEATHER WARNING

Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 21:05 WIB 22/04/2008

EXTREME WEATHER WARNING NUMBER 1

A CYCLONE WARNING for a Tropical Depression has been declared continues for areas Lebak, Pandeglang, Serang, Bengkulu Selatan, Bengkulu Utara, Rejang Lebong, Bandung, Ciamis, Cianjur, Garut, Kodya Bandung, Kodya Bogor, Kodya Sukabumi, Sukabumi, Tasikmalaya, Cilacap, Kodya Bandar Lampung, Lampung Barat, Lampung Selatan, Kodya Padang, Kodya Solok, Padang Pariaman, Pesisir Selatan, Sawahlunto-Sijunjung, Solok, Tanah Datar, Lahat and Musi Rawas.


At 19:00 WIB Tropical Depression was estimated to be 1260 kilometres west southwest of Bengkulu and 1660 kilometres west of Jakarta and moving east at 26 kilometres per hour.

The depression is expected to develop into a TROPICAL CYCLONE within the next twelve to twenty four hours.

Extreme weather is expected to develop caused by this tropical depression.

Probability of medium into high intensity rain and strong wind in West Sumatera, South part of Sumatera, West and South part of Java

Details of Tropical Depression at 19:00 WIB:
. Centre located near...... 8.2 degrees south 91.8 degrees east
. Location accuracy........ within 130 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the east at 26 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals
. Maximum wind speed....... 50 kilometres per hour

The next advice will be issued by 02:00 WIB Wednesday 23 April.

This advice is available on telephone 021-6546318, 4246321 ext 377

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA

[HURAKAN]

29S is here!

[HURAKAN]

I have a problem with the warnings issued by Jakarta. I know they're knew and anxious to issue statements, but if the system is not forecasted to move towards Indonesia like their maps show, why issue a warning and not a watch?

[Chacor]

Indonesia issues warnings for rain as well.

[Chacor]

[HURAKAN]

22/2030 UTC 8.6S 94.5E T2.5/2.5 29S -- South Indian Ocean



WTXS32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/212321Z APR 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 8.6S 93.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6S 93.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 9.3S 96.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 9.8S 98.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 10.6S 99.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 11.3S 100.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 8.8S 94.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 705 NM WEST OF
CHRISTMAS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221851Z
AMSU IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. A 221210Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE INDICATED 30-
35 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU IMAGE AS WELL AS SATELLITE
POSITION ESTIMATES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30-35 KNOTS AND QUIKSCAT DATA.
TC 29S IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGH TAU 36 THEN WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AND SLOW, SIMILAR TO TC 28S, DUE TO SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 29S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS BUT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24 WITH THE APPROACH AND DEEPENING OF A MID-
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 212321Z APR 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 212330). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
221800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ROSIE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

First Jakarta named storm. Durga.

[Chacor]

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WARNING

HIGH SEAS WARNING FOR AREA 0 - 10 S, 90 - 125 E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 02:31 UTC 23 April 2008

SITUATION
At 00:00 UTC Tropical Cyclone DURGA 995 hPa was within 70 nautical miles of 9.2 S 95.1 E moving south east at 3 knots.

This tropical depression may develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 6-12 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 20 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 10 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 15 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 35 knots expected to increase to 40 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

12:00 UTC 23 April: Within 130 nautical miles of 9.8 S 98.4 E
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 40 knots near centre.
00:00 UTC 24 April: Within 125 nautical miles of 9.8 S 99.8 E
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 07:00 UTC 23 April 2008.

No further warnings will be issued unless the situation changes.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA

They're still learning, though: even though they've named it, they forgot to remove the second line saying it's a TD. Also, they say next warning issued by 0700, but left in a statement saying 'no further warnings' will be issued.

[Chacor]

[HURAKAN]

I still think Perth should have responsibility over this area. It doesn't make any sense to divide the basin into so many resposibility areas. You have Meteo France, Jakarta, Perth, Darwin, Brisbane, Papua New Guinea, Fiji, and New Zealand. In the Northern Hemisphere we have more cyclones and we only need four areas (Atlantic, EPAC, CPAC, and WPAC.)

[Chacor]

Uhm. It might not make sense to you but it obviously works for the WMO, so who are you to question it? Indonesia were always set to get a TCWC and up to last season Perth's job in this area was only temporary. Due to the nature of the land mass it's not always a great thing to have a bulletin for a storm SW of Sumatra to be issued by Brisbane. Bear in mind the WPAC actually has more NMHS warning centres than for the Southern Hemisphere.

[HURAKAN]

Wow, I was just trying to make a point. If I can't, then sorry for inquiring.

[Chacor]

I don't see why you had to make it like that. The SHem is very different from the NHem and you cannot draw such comparisons. The WMO obviously has this system in place for a reason.

And your point about warning centres:

The NWPac has 14 NMHSes (including one RSMC) in the tropical cyclone programme (TCP). Officially there are only 8 TCWCs and RSMCs in the SHem, with two sub-TCWCs.

[HURAKAN]

The point is that the amount of tropical cyclone activity in the SE Indian Ocean doesn't warrant two areas of responsibilities compared to basins like the WPAC that has annually a large number of tropical cyclones and only has one area of resposibility. That's my point. It may work for the WMO but I don't see the point. Sorry.