Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[MiamiensisWx]

That was a huge surprise.

[RL3AO]

Wow.

[Evil Jeremy]

You just beat me to it! I got off of Storm2K, went on to NRL, then rushed back here to post it, but you beat me by a few seconds lol! Anyways, Yay! First Invest!

[cycloneye]

This will be for model runs only.Waiting for the first plots.

[RL3AO]

Next discussion is out in two hours.

[RL3AO]

90LINVEST.25kts-1006mb-170N-874W

[HURAKAN]

Getting better from my cold. Today I have had a few times with fever but nothing as compared with yesterday when the fever went up to 39.5°F or ~104°F. Went to the doctor and it's just a common cold going around. My sister had it but for her it was really minor. I hope to be back to normal by Sunday or Monday.

Back to the tropics. I think it will be really interesting to see what will happen as the remnants of Alma drifts into the BOC and continues to interact with the tropical wave. It may not be a similar scenario but we could see a Barry-like system as the cold front approaches Florida in a few days.

[NDG]

I was just off by a few miles with the location of that weak LLC.

[KWT]

I suppose in light of the sat imagery that someone posted where the evidence showed it had a surface circulation its not all that surprising it was tagged an invest area, now the key is will this invest stay offshore or will it head inland and probably doom itself?!

Thats come right out the blue though its nice to get our first invest of the hurricane season!

[MiamiensisWx]

This system is so weak and shallow that the low level steering currents and wind vectors will likely bring it westward into the southern Bay of Campeche and mainland Mexico. The upper ridge is strong.

[Brent]

WOW, really surprised about this.

[KWT]

Probably MiamiensisWx but it'll be interesting to see what all the models do with this now, the statistical models should give a good indication to the state of the set-up around it right now.

[RL3AO]

Why declare this an invest if it will move inland before having a chance to develop significantly...from reading wxman57 comments, looks like invest90L is a non-threat to the U.S. Simply an early season teaser.

The NHC must think different. Lets see what they say at the 805 TWD.

[PTrackerLA]

Not surprised at all, we have a broad LLC and developing convection. Looks to be drifiting towards the Yucatan so not sure if this has a shot of making a TD unless a center were to reform further east.

[wxman57]

Why declare this an invest if it will move inland before having a chance to develop significantly...from reading wxman57 comments, looks like invest90L is a non-threat to the U.S. Simply an early season teaser.

It IS a potential threat to the BoC and southern Mexico (gusty wind, heavy rain, rough seas). NHC isn't just concerned about the U.S. However, it should be moving inland over the next 24 hours.

[MiamiensisWx]

Why declare this an invest if it will move inland before having a chance to develop significantly...from reading wxman57 comments, looks like invest90L is a non-threat to the U.S. Simply an early season teaser.

It IS a potential threat to the BoC and southern Mexico (gusty wind, heavy rain, rough seas). NHC isn't just concerned about the U.S. However, it should be moving inland over the next 24 hours.

Exactly...

Additionally, it could gain TD classification briefly before moving inland over the Yucatan.

[HouTXmetro]

Wow..... It looks weaker and less impressive than earlier.

[Recurve]

Wxman nails the analysis IMO. There's some distant low-influenced turning, the NHC might as well keep an eye on it, but there is nothing like an exciting LLC or conditions to say this is going to become anything, IMO, again.

This is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

It'll be interesting to see whether this can get to the BOC, I personally can't see it doing anything till before it reaches the Yucatan unless it really does take its time in a very big way but if it can get 24hrs over the BoC no reason why it can't become something.