ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[RL3AO]

BEGIN
NHC
invest_al912008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200808021823
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2008, DB, O, 2008080218, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912008
AL, 91, 2008080200, , BEST, 0, 311N, 873W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2008080206, , BEST, 0, 309N, 873W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2008080212, , BEST, 0, 303N, 871W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2008080218, , BEST, 0, 295N, 870W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Previous thread: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102128

[HURAKAN]

[rockyman]

Navy's up:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Gustywind]

Invests are firing up two in the day...waouw

[HURAKAN]

[Bailey1777]

Will this area sink further south or just skirt the coast line?

[RL3AO]

I think we need a poll for which one of the three develops first.

[tailgater]

Just 1 more model that shows some surface reflection.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... 008080212-

[HURAKAN]

AL, 91, 2008080218, , BEST, 0, 295N, 870W, 20, 1009,

[HouTXmetro]

Howdy.... Welcome to 91L!!!!

I don't see how this get's further south. Satelitte presentation looks good.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE
MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY OR SUNDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. IF NECESSARY...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT ABOUT 1150
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS CENTERED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME
BUT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
***********************************************

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 28W FROM 7N TO 15N IS MOVING W 15 TO
20 KT. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ATTACHED TO THE WAVE AT 11N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 42W FROM 12N TO 23N IS MOVING W
ABOUT 15 KT. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ATTACHED TO THE WAVE AT
18N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED MOSTLY
AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W AND
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A 0850Z QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES SEVERAL 20 TO 25 KT WIND BARBS EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W
AND IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE WAS ADDED BASED ON AN
ANALYSIS OF GOES INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND OVER/NEAR PUERTO RICO. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
LOCATED FROM NEAR 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W/79W IS MOVING
W 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITH
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE AREA ALONG AND OFF THE PANAMA COAST
AND N OF JAMAICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N20W 9N35W 7N50W 8N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 7N19W TO 7N23W LINE AND ALSO ALONG THE
COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 10W AND 13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER MEXICO
NEAR 21N99W AND IS MOVING W 15 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED OVER
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO S OF 24N W OF 93W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN WESTERN LOUISIANA
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED JUST
W OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION LOCATED N OF 27.5N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. A
WELL-DEFINED ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED OVER W
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE
CIRCULATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W.
SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATE THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER THE
SW QUADRANT.

REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 45W...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO BEYOND 32N74W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
LOCATED WITHIN 5 TO 6 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA. FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...6 TO 7 DEGREES IN
DIAMETER...IS CENTERED NEAR 27N53W AND IS MOVING WNW ABOUT 10
KT. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION INTO THE FAR NE
CARIBBEAN. WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE
SURFACE A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 31N38W TO 28N50W TO 26N65W INTO S FLORIDA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 45W...
OVER THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 32N30W...MOVING NE 10 TO
15 KT. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION TO NEAR
26N35W. OVER THE DEEP TROPICS WINDS ARE EASTERLY ALOFT AND
MEASURE UP TO 40 KT AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS.

$$
CAB
***********************************************

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 02 AUGUST 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUGUST 2008
         TCPOD NUMBER.....08-063

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO
       FLIGHT ONE  TEAL 70        FLIGHT TWO  --TEAL 71
       A. 03/1800Z                A. 04/0600Z-1200Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST      B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
       C. 03/1600Z                C. 04/0400Z
       D. 28.5N 86.5W             D. 28.2N 88.0W
       E. 03/1700 TO 04/0000Z     E. 04/0500 TO 1200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000FT         F. SFC TO 10,000FT
    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
       DEVELOPS.

11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
                     WVW

[Ed Mahmoud]

Disclaimer: Amateur and unofficial, and not endorsed by Storm2K web site: Just what the doctor ordered. A weak surface trough, probably a tropical depression, worst case a moderate tropical storm, bringing needed rain. My main worry is system will track too far either North or South, and heaviest rain misses HOU metro. An Alicia, or even an Humberto seems very unlikely at this time, but keep tuned to local NWS and National Hurricane Center updates for latest official forecasts.


Reasoning laid out in now locked thread.

Bastardi, who usually errs on the side of too extreme, says 1000 mb Abby is likely top limit. WRF and Canadian, two models usually most extreme, similar. GFS, possibly due land interaction, doesn't quite close off a surface low. NoGaPs is a very weak system near CRP. UK Met looks similar to GFS. All 12Z runs. 12Z NAM is a bit weaker than 0Z and 6Z NAM runs.


Has suggestion of a loose circulation on radar, and I have been informed on locked thread radar scan is near 700 mb level, with deep convection (colder than -70ºC) displaced somewhat Southwest of the center.



Now that this is an official invest, I imagine the pro-mets will be here, and they usually seem to have the best forecasts, for some odd reason.

[Derek Ortt]

yeah... this one must be watched closely

[RL3AO]

yeah... this one must be watched closely

If the models are right and this has 72-96 hours over the GOM...

[KWT]

This is starting to look real interesting now I have to admit the way the deep convection has developed and clearly its got a very good set-up with it as well.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Will this area sink further south or just skirt the coast line?

Magic question, GFS and UK Met, the skirters, are also the weakest.

Although even the strongest models are no more than a moderate tropical storm.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Will this area sink further south or just skirt the coast line?

Magic question, GFS and UK Met, the skirters, are also the weakest.

Although even the strongest models are no more than a moderate tropical storm.

Not sure how well the BAMS will do for a currently non-tropical system in the mid-latitudes. I'd take them with a grain of salt when they come out. I actually expect globals to do best of all, and once recon goes in, assuming no poof-ation, models initialized post recon tomorrow should be pretty close.

[KWT]

Much also depends on exactly where any circulation center forms, further north less time further south obviously more.

[Bailey1777]

Really seems to be popping considering it's close proximity to the coast.

[BreinLa]

yeah... this one must be watched closely

Okay I am watching now thanks Derek