Tropical Storm Edouard recon discussion

[MiamiensisWx]

Discuss the mission(s) here.

[KWT]

I expect recon will find rotation but whether it'll be totally closed off is hard to say, I'd guess they may well it in the process of closing off.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I doubt they'll confirm the existance of a closed LLC, since I don't think it's present at this time. As I mentioned, the first signs of a formative LLC may be documented under the convection and MLC further south. Recent satellite imagery suggests that new convection may eventually develop in the vicinity between 25.9-28.9 N and 86.8-89.1 W as well. It will be interesting to observe future buoy/ASOS coastal observations later today and tonight.

[RL3AO]

Long flight...

[KWT]

Haha compared to the flight to Bertha this is nothing

[vbhoutex]

Personally, I doubt they'll confirm the existance of a closed LLC, since I don't think it's present at this time. As I mentioned, the first signs of a formative LLC may be documented under the convection and MLC further south. Recent satellite imagery suggests that new convection may eventually develop in the vicinity between 25.9-28.9 N and 86.8-89.1 W as well. It will be interesting to observe future buoy/ASOS coastal observations later today and tonight.

I've been checking them this morning on a regular basis. I found obs lately that suggest a secondary circulation over the extreme SE tip of LA. I'm sure this is an anamoly of some sort, but it also suggests to me that there may be other " mini-vorts" circulating around the larger broad circulation. Needs to be a lot more consolidation in the lower levels for this system to start any kind of strengthening, much less become a tropical depression, imo. I definitely would like the rain something like this would bring to SE TX if track progs are correct, but I'm starting to wonder if it is going to develop. Don't get me wrong, I am not writing this off but I think development, whatever form it takes is going to be much slower than many think.

[cycloneye]

Plane already decending.

[RL3AO]

Operational altitude: 200 m.

[KWT]

200M...thats really low isn't it though I suppose its a weak system.

Edit---flight winds of 33kts and estimate surface winds of 34...if LLC is found we may see this go straight to TS status!

[RL3AO]

200M...thats really low isn't it though I suppose its a weak system.

Usually its around 300m.

[MiamiensisWx]

They may classify this one as a TD if a broad, ill defined closed circulation is found. Proximity to land may play a role as well, especially when compared to other systems far out in the Atlantic.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I expect that the RECON will find a TD and then after that I think watches/warning could go out.. With a system this close to land that I am sure is safe to say but I want to ait and sea what the recon find first and I am not trying to jump ahead of RECON'S ability to do the flight job!!!!!!!!!


RECON ROCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[KWT]

MiamiensisWx this would go straight to TS status given the winds found already would support 35kts.

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure so far has been 1010.1 mbs.

[SouthFloridawx]

Sorry I'll post my questions here....

[SouthFloridawx]

Found this cool decoding site...

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

Are these winds correct?

Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

44.9 knots (~ 51.7 mph)
Tropical Storm

[xironman]

49 knot SFMR? Seems high

[MiamiensisWx]

It should be noted that the SFMR reading isn't flagged as "suspect". It could have been accurate, but it isn't representative of the system's maximum 1-min winds. It may have been related to one of the more intense, localized thunderstorms.

[RL3AO]

It should be noted that the SFMR reading isn't flagged as "suspect". It could have been accurate, but it isn't representative of the system's maximum 1-min winds. It may have been related to one of the more intense, localized thunderstorms.

It never tagged the 100kt SFMR readings during Cristobal either.

[KWT]

Yeah there was some heavy rainfall when those higher readings came in but there has been some 30-35kts readings that have come during light to no rainfall.