CPAC: Tropical Depression Kika

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RL3AO
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CPAC: Tropical Depression Kika

#1 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 05, 2008 3:38 am

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1. Persistent thunderstorms associated with a well defined surface trough about 1200 miles east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii remain disorganized this evening. However, this system may become better organized as it moves westward at about 10 mph during the next couple of days. Therefore, this area will be closely monitored for any signs of development.
Last edited by RL3AO on Thu Aug 07, 2008 4:41 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 05, 2008 6:28 am

CP, 92, 2008080506, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1400W, 20, 1009, DB,
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#3 Postby Chacor » Tue Aug 05, 2008 9:04 am

ACPN50 PHFO 051350
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE AUG 5 2008

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH ABOUT 1200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII REMAINS
DISORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

$$

HOUSTON
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#4 Postby Chacor » Tue Aug 05, 2008 9:35 am

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Not too shabby.
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 05, 2008 11:31 am

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Looks quite good.
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#6 Postby WmE » Tue Aug 05, 2008 1:09 pm

The next name for a CPac storm would be Kika, right?
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Re:

#7 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 05, 2008 1:10 pm

WmE wrote:The next name for a CPac storm would be Kika, right?


Correct.


It needs to almost stay due west. A few degrees north and the water gets too cold.

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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 05, 2008 1:38 pm

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Looking like a depression already.
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#9 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 05, 2008 1:42 pm

Yep this does look pretty interesting given the way its wrapping up I'd guess its a tropical depression right now.

Needs to stay below 12N though as others have said if its going to go on to anything more impressive however.
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 05, 2008 2:10 pm

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At least a MLC is present. LLC is possible.
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Re: CPac: Invest 92C

#11 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 05, 2008 3:11 pm

WHXX01 KMIA 051928
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1928 UTC TUE AUG 5 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP922008) 20080805 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080805 1800 080806 0600 080806 1800 080807 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.9N 141.8W 10.1N 144.1W 10.3N 146.5W 10.3N 148.6W
BAMD 9.9N 141.8W 10.1N 144.2W 10.3N 146.8W 10.6N 149.3W
BAMM 9.9N 141.8W 10.1N 144.1W 10.4N 146.5W 10.7N 148.7W
LBAR 9.9N 141.8W 10.0N 144.4W 10.5N 147.4W 11.1N 150.4W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 34KTS 41KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 34KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080807 1800 080808 1800 080809 1800 080810 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.1N 150.8W 9.9N 155.5W 9.5N 160.6W 9.5N 166.2W
BAMD 10.7N 151.9W 10.8N 157.6W 10.5N 163.4W 10.7N 169.1W
BAMM 10.7N 151.1W 10.7N 156.1W 10.2N 161.3W 9.9N 166.5W
LBAR 11.7N 153.4W 13.4N 159.1W 13.6N 163.3W 13.0N 164.3W
SHIP 47KTS 54KTS 60KTS 66KTS
DSHP 47KTS 54KTS 60KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.9N LONCUR = 141.8W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 139.5W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 136.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 05, 2008 4:07 pm

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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 05, 2008 5:12 pm

05/1800 UTC 9.9N 141.7W T1.5/1.5 92C -- Central Pacific Ocean
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 05, 2008 5:16 pm

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/loop-vis.html

When convection increases by tomorrow's DMAX, we could see a depression or storm. Looks very well organized.
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Re: CPac: Invest 92C

#15 Postby masaji79 » Tue Aug 05, 2008 5:23 pm

Looks like this will probably get named Kika within the next several days. This would be the first named Central Pacific storm in 2 years, since Ioke in 2006.
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 05, 2008 6:07 pm

1000 AM HST TUE AUG 5 2008

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. Showers and thunderstorms are associated with a surface trough around 1000 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. The area has become somewhat more organized over the past six hours, and will be closely monitored for further signs of development.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday morning.

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Re: CPac: Invest 92C

#17 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 05, 2008 6:35 pm

Getting better organized rather quickly.

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#18 Postby Chacor » Tue Aug 05, 2008 8:31 pm

The next TWO should be out within the next half hour.
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#19 Postby Chacor » Tue Aug 05, 2008 8:47 pm

ACPN50 PHFO 060145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE AUG 5 2008

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH...IS
AROUND 1000 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. THE
FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE WITHIN 200 MILES
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH IS NEARING 10N 143W. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR FURTHER SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

KINEL
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#20 Postby Chacor » Wed Aug 06, 2008 4:20 am

643
ACPN50 PHFO 060744
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST TUE AUG 5 2008

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR
10N 144W...OR ABOUT 1060 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO. THIS FEATURE MOVED
TOWARD THE WEST AT NEAR 10 MPH. SPORADIC...CYCLING THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

$$

RYSHKO
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