Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[cycloneye]

All model runs,global and the BAMs are posted here.

[Mecklenburg]

i do believe gfs doesn't develop this wave... but the one on 35W is projected to hit the carolinas...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Meso]

Yeah the models don't do much with this, yet.But the CMC does move it as a feature.I will be interested to see what the SHIPS intensity estimates are for this.

[Mecklenburg]

i do believe gfs doesn't develop this wave... but the one on 35W is projected to hit the carolinas...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

but remembering how the models do poorly on felix last year... this may be on to something.

[cycloneye]

SHIP has a Hurricane in Caribbean.

WHXX01 KWBC 101254
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC SUN AUG 10 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080810 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080810 1200 080811 0000 080811 1200 080812 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 43.0W 11.5N 44.3W 12.3N 45.8W 12.9N 47.3W
BAMD 10.5N 43.0W 11.1N 45.0W 11.6N 47.0W 12.0N 48.9W
BAMM 10.5N 43.0W 11.1N 44.9W 11.8N 46.6W 12.4N 48.0W
LBAR 10.5N 43.0W 10.9N 45.6W 11.6N 48.2W 12.3N 50.9W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080812 1200 080813 1200 080814 1200 080815 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 49.6W 16.0N 55.0W 18.8N 61.6W 21.2N 68.2W
BAMD 12.5N 50.9W 14.5N 55.6W 16.2N 61.0W 17.2N 66.8W
BAMM 13.0N 49.9W 14.9N 54.8W 16.7N 60.4W 17.8N 66.5W
LBAR 13.1N 53.6W 15.1N 58.6W 17.1N 63.8W 19.3N 68.7W
SHIP 55KTS 71KTS 81KTS 84KTS
DSHP 55KTS 71KTS 81KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 43.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 39.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 36.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Mecklenburg]

SHIP has a Hurricane in Caribbean.

WHXX01 KWBC 101254
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC SUN AUG 10 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080810 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080810 1200 080811 0000 080811 1200 080812 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 43.0W 11.5N 44.3W 12.3N 45.8W 12.9N 47.3W
BAMD 10.5N 43.0W 11.1N 45.0W 11.6N 47.0W 12.0N 48.9W
BAMM 10.5N 43.0W 11.1N 44.9W 11.8N 46.6W 12.4N 48.0W
LBAR 10.5N 43.0W 10.9N 45.6W 11.6N 48.2W 12.3N 50.9W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080812 1200 080813 1200 080814 1200 080815 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 49.6W 16.0N 55.0W 18.8N 61.6W 21.2N 68.2W
BAMD 12.5N 50.9W 14.5N 55.6W 16.2N 61.0W 17.2N 66.8W
BAMM 13.0N 49.9W 14.9N 54.8W 16.7N 60.4W 17.8N 66.5W
LBAR 13.1N 53.6W 15.1N 58.6W 17.1N 63.8W 19.3N 68.7W
SHIP 55KTS 71KTS 81KTS 84KTS
DSHP 55KTS 71KTS 81KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 43.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 39.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 36.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

so the ships model develops 92L unlike CMC and GFS... does it also say something for the wave on 35W?

[cycloneye]

Oh my goodness,to my backyard.Gustywind,HUC over you there.

[wzrgirl1]

are any spaghetti plots out yet



edit: sorry you beat me to the post thanks

[perk]

Oh my goodness,to my backyard.Gustywind,HUC over you there.

cycloneye if these early models hold true your neck of the woods is in for a rough ride.

[cycloneye]

No Spaghetti yet.

[wzrgirl1]

it looks as if those last two posts of model plots contradict each other...what am i missing?

[Gustywind]

Oh my goodness,to my backyard.Gustywind,HUC over you there.

Waouw, yeah , don't like this first run, too close for comfort but seems directly close to Guadeloupe and Antigua and by extension near you PR Cycloneye as cat 2 status wait and see the other runs with the others models will give us a better handle on that...

[RL3AO]

it looks as if those last two posts of model plots contradict each other...what am i missing?

The first one has the LBAR and the second doesn't and the second has the BAM shallow and the first doesn't.

[wzrgirl1]

but more then that it seems that the second one is way more north then the first one

edit: oh ok it just changed on me...ignore my post

[cycloneye]

First SHIP forecast shows shear almost none and ssts rise as it tracks west.

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL922008  08/10/08  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    30    33    36    45    55    62    71    77    81    84    84
V (KT) LAND       25    27    30    33    36    45    55    62    71    77    81    84    84
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    29    31    37    44    53    63    73    82    92    98

SHEAR (KTS)        6     8    10     5     4     5     8    10     3     7     3     7     9
SHEAR DIR         94    82    72   104    80   100    80   135    47   173   281   234   307
SST (C)         27.7  27.7  27.8  27.9  27.9  28.0  28.1  28.0  28.0  28.2  28.5  28.7  28.7
POT. INT. (KT)   134   133   134   135   134   136   138   138   138   141   146   149   149
ADJ. POT. INT.   136   131   132   132   131   133   137   136   137   139   144   147   146
200 MB T (C)   -54.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8
TH_E DEV (C)       9    10    10    10    10    10    10    10     9    10    10    11    10
700-500 MB RH     64    62    59    64    61    58    59    57    52    53    50    52    54
GFS VTEX (KT)      9     9     7     8     7     7     7     7     7     7     6     5     5
850 MB ENV VOR    88    73    68    60    52    41    34    30    28    22    12     9    10
200 MB DIV        21     7     6    -3    -3    21    38    42    19    39    -3     0     0
LAND (KM)       1154  1099  1053  1026  1000   961   925   932   811   681   589   263    18
LAT (DEG N)     10.5  10.8  11.1  11.5  11.8  12.4  13.0  13.9  14.9  15.9  16.7  17.4  17.8
LONG(DEG W)     43.0  44.0  44.9  45.8  46.6  48.0  49.9  52.2  54.8  57.5  60.4  63.4  66.5
STM SPEED (KT)    13    10     9     9     8     9    11    12    14    14    14    15    14
HEAT CONTENT      23    25    33    33    36    43    48    51    54    45    67    69    72

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16      CX,CY: -15/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  390  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  31.4 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  49.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   5.  10.  16.  21.  26.  30.  33.  35.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   3.   5.   7.   9.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   5.   5.   6.   7.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.   5.   5.   4.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       2.   5.   8.  11.  20.  30.  38.  47.  53.  57.  60.  61.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      2.   5.   8.  11.  20.  30.  37.  46.  52.  56.  59.  59.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008     INVEST 08/10/08  12 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   6.9 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.4
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   5.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 107.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  73.0 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  26.2 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  30.0 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    20% is   1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     3% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008     INVEST 08/10/08  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

[RL3AO]

but more then that it seems that the first one is way more north then the second one

Its exactly the same for the BAMM and BAMD which are the two models those two images have in common.

[cycloneye]

wzrgirl1,here is a spaghetti:



http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

[Mecklenburg]

wzrgirl1,here is a spaghetti:



http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

not quite a good news for the lesser antilles

[Gustywind]

wzrgirl1,here is a spaghetti:

First models runs seems clustered awfully near Guadeloupe and i don't like it

[wzrgirl1]

thanks but for some reason it is coming up as tropical storm edouard....is anyone else seeing this...i tried refreshing my cache not sure what's up