Tropical Storm Fay RECON Discussions

[HURAKAN]

Lets discuss.

I think RECON will find a developing system but not a depression. I'm not going for a depression just yet. We have been fooled too many times before.

[deltadog03]

I agree no TD yet, but certainly looking better. Inflow has certainly improved.

[CrazyC83]

Going over the Leewards now. Probably not TD6 at this point IMO but close.

[HURAKAN]

Interesting to see buoy 41040 reporting SW and WSW winds.

This bouy is located at: 14.48 N 53.03 W (14°28'49" N 53°2'19" W)

[bvigal]

Interesting to see buoy 41040 reporting SW and WSW winds.

This bouy is located at: 14.48 N 53.03 W (14°28'49" N 53°2'19" W)

from that buoy:

[Aric Dunn]

they will probably find TD winds on the north side within that blob maybe pushing TS winds .. but probably wont close off a low unless it organizes more while they are out there flying around..

[hiflyer]

Just looked and commercial air traffic from Europe to the islands is skirting this on the NW side..."for those of you on the left side there is a good view of 92L"...grin. Very surprised at the double launch...both NOAA and USAF...when it was tough to get one just a couple weeks ago...TDY at St Croix that popular??? or does someone got a hunch at the NHC??? Methinks the latter....

[KWT]

I suspect recon will find a low level circulation but maybe not quite defined enough to warrent an upgrade but we shall see.

[Aric Dunn]

I suspect recon will find a low level circulation but maybe not quite defined enough to warrent an upgrade but we shall see.

yeah, clearly there is a circualtion and a closed wind field but broad amd lacking any banding as of yet .. although you never know if the winds are there and sufficent west winds and a fairly good reasononing for continued orginization they may upgrade.

[deltadog03]

I think there actually might be a LLC...but, convection will have to improve b4 they declare it a TD..( I would think anyways)

[Aquawind]

Dang it's a pretty long flight.. I can see why it's on the edge of RECON. They look like they are heading for the weaking sw convection first and then a turn NE into the persistant blob?

[cycloneye]

Crazy,they have to go more south to try to find west winds.

[HURAKAN]

Where they are right now they can't find WEST winds.

[cycloneye]

And now they are going south.

[Aric Dunn]

and we have no west or even near west winds .... and they are flying south of where the could be ( accoring sat ) ..

[HURAKAN]

If west winds are present, they should have already been found.

[KWT]

As others have said there probably isn't a LLC, just a MLC at the moment it seems.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't think they quite got far enough South to find possible West winds. Looks pretty poorly organized, might not have one at all, but eyeballing loop, it is about 14.8ºN, 52.5ºW, maybe.

I think.

[KWT]

Ed they did go down to about that latitude, no LLC but there was slightly lower pressure there.

[HURAKAN]