Ex Invest 98L - Central Atlantic: ST1.5

[RL3AO]

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invest_al982008.invest
FSTDA
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U
040
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200808310609
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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AL, 98, 2008083106, , BEST, 0, 207N, 483W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

[SouthFLTropics]

THERE'S TOO MANY OF THEM!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Lets be truthful to many blobs of convection that are being sheared to death with less then a 20% chance of development, if so, then I agree.

This does look better then Mrs.Hanna shear alot, but it's still getting sheared to death with the ULL to the northwest. The system that was 97L is looking bad tonight. So where is the TOO MANY OF THEM? To many cells of convection?

[Thunder44]

Suprised this became an invest with a statement against development in the latest TWO:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 485 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
REMAINS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS FROM THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 311145
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES
NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN

[ericinmia]

The Euro brings this through the florida straigts...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8083100!!/

[capepoint]

Hasn't the euro brought EVERYTHING thru the florida straits this year???????

[HURAKAN]

That's not 98L that EURO is pointing out. It's 97L! If you see the loop, it takes a low pressure system near PR before reaching the Bahamas and the Florida Straits. 98L is already north of 20N.

[HURAKAN]

111
ABNT20 KNHC 311756
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES
NORTH OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVE CHANGED LITTLE TODAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 625
MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN

[CrazyC83]

Shouldn't do much in my opinion. 97L may just eat this alive.

[bob rulz]

How is this an invest? The thunderstorms approaching me from the west right now look better than this.

[cycloneye]

Invest Deactivated:

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invest_DEACTIVATE_al982008.ren
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R
U
040
010
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200808312119
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[HURAKAN]

01/1145 UTC 28.2N 52.5W ST1.5 IN1

Coming back. Already in the floater:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float3.html

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE
LOUISIANA...ON RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE STORM HANNA...LOCATED
VERY NEAR MAYAGUANA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND ON
RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE LOCATED HALFWAY BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. LITTLE MOTION
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[masaji79]

This actually looks like it could wrap up into a sub-tropical storm, much like Jerry last year

[KWT]

Its got a very strange shape to it but it does sort of lok subtropical right now?