ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

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cycloneye
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ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 19, 2008 1:38 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1833 UTC SUN OCT 19 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912008) 20081019 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081019 1800 081020 0600 081020 1800 081021 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 86.9W 17.6N 88.3W 17.6N 89.8W 17.4N 91.4W
BAMD 17.6N 86.9W 18.1N 87.3W 18.8N 88.0W 19.5N 88.9W
BAMM 17.6N 86.9W 17.8N 87.8W 18.0N 89.1W 18.3N 90.5W
LBAR 17.6N 86.9W 18.1N 87.1W 19.2N 87.7W 20.6N 88.4W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081021 1800 081022 1800 081023 1800 081024 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 93.0W 17.1N 95.5W 16.8N 97.9W 16.9N 100.9W
BAMD 20.3N 89.8W 23.1N 89.6W 27.1N 83.0W 26.2N 71.8W
BAMM 18.7N 91.9W 19.6N 93.7W 20.7N 94.8W 21.7N 95.4W
LBAR 22.2N 88.7W 25.1N 86.4W 26.6N 81.6W 25.1N 77.2W
SHIP 41KTS 37KTS 29KTS 22KTS
DSHP 30KTS 26KTS 18KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 86.9W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 17.4N LONM12 = 86.7W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 17.2N LONM24 = 86.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Image
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jinftl
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L : Models

#2 Postby jinftl » Sun Oct 19, 2008 1:45 pm

A Gulf...even a western or nothern Gulf....system perhaps?


cycloneye wrote:TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1833 UTC SUN OCT 19 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912008) 20081019 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081019 1800 081020 0600 081020 1800 081021 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 86.9W 17.6N 88.3W 17.6N 89.8W 17.4N 91.4W
BAMD 17.6N 86.9W 18.1N 87.3W 18.8N 88.0W 19.5N 88.9W
BAMM 17.6N 86.9W 17.8N 87.8W 18.0N 89.1W 18.3N 90.5W
LBAR 17.6N 86.9W 18.1N 87.1W 19.2N 87.7W 20.6N 88.4W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081021 1800 081022 1800 081023 1800 081024 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 93.0W 17.1N 95.5W 16.8N 97.9W 16.9N 100.9W
BAMD 20.3N 89.8W 23.1N 89.6W 27.1N 83.0W 26.2N 71.8W
BAMM 18.7N 91.9W 19.6N 93.7W 20.7N 94.8W 21.7N 95.4W
LBAR 22.2N 88.7W 25.1N 86.4W 26.6N 81.6W 25.1N 77.2W
SHIP 41KTS 37KTS 29KTS 22KTS
DSHP 30KTS 26KTS 18KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 86.9W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 17.4N LONM12 = 86.7W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 17.2N LONM24 = 86.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Image
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Sanibel
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L : Models

#3 Postby Sanibel » Sun Oct 19, 2008 1:46 pm

2 out of 3 of the early models keep it in the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#4 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 19, 2008 1:47 pm

Canadian
Image

GFS
Image

nogaps

Image
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jinftl
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L : Models

#5 Postby jinftl » Sun Oct 19, 2008 1:50 pm

Roll up your sleeves...i am guessing those are going to be 'season over fightin' words'


Sanibel wrote:2 out of 3 of the early models keep it in the Gulf.
Last edited by jinftl on Sun Oct 19, 2008 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#6 Postby AJC3 » Sun Oct 19, 2008 1:51 pm

Huge spread in the BAM suite late in the period suggests some pretty significant shear eventually developing, especially the farther north it heads.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#7 Postby captain east » Sun Oct 19, 2008 2:19 pm

Image

not too shabby

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#8 Postby jinftl » Sun Oct 19, 2008 2:23 pm

That model run graphic is the one we have been hoping not to see...but are somewhat resigned to expecting given the strong climatology... here in florida if a system gets going in that location in late october.

captain east wrote:Image

not too shabby

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#9 Postby kpost » Sun Oct 19, 2008 5:03 pm

when do the next models come out?

Spaghetti models also?
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#10 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Oct 19, 2008 5:06 pm

If the GFS is close to correct, this won't do much in the Gulf. Shear in excess of 28 m/s (ballpark 60 knots) entire Gulf North of latitude of about Key West continuously beyond 96 hours.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFSTROPATL_12z/gfsloop.html


Only vaguely related (low pressure in Caribbean big Canadian high pushing into Northeast), nice pressure gradient/onshore flow, maybe elevated tides for EC Florida Wednesday into the weekend.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 19, 2008 7:41 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0033 UTC MON OCT 20 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912008) 20081020 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081020 0000 081020 1200 081021 0000 081021 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 87.0W 17.2N 88.6W 16.7N 90.3W 16.2N 92.0W
BAMD 17.5N 87.0W 18.0N 87.6W 18.6N 88.4W 19.2N 89.4W
BAMM 17.5N 87.0W 17.5N 88.2W 17.6N 89.6W 17.8N 91.0W
LBAR 17.5N 87.0W 17.9N 87.5W 19.1N 88.2W 20.6N 89.0W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081022 0000 081023 0000 081024 0000 081025 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 93.5W 14.8N 96.2W 14.0N 99.2W 14.3N 103.0W
BAMD 20.2N 90.2W 22.9N 90.1W 28.3N 84.8W 32.4N 68.8W
BAMM 18.1N 92.3W 18.7N 93.9W 19.1N 94.9W 19.2N 95.7W
LBAR 22.5N 89.1W 25.6N 87.1W 27.8N 81.5W 28.5N 74.8W
SHIP 42KTS 40KTS 35KTS 26KTS
DSHP 27KTS 29KTS 24KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 87.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 17.5N LONM12 = 86.8W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 86.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Sanibel
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#12 Postby Sanibel » Sun Oct 19, 2008 7:50 pm

GFDL is towards west Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#13 Postby DeanDaDream » Sun Oct 19, 2008 7:59 pm

Sanibel wrote:GFDL is towards west Florida.


http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/9 ... maps.shtml
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#14 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 19, 2008 8:08 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#15 Postby Blown Away » Sun Oct 19, 2008 8:21 pm

DeanDaDream wrote:
Sanibel wrote:GFDL is towards west Florida.


http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/9 ... maps.shtml


Great link, thanks. :uarrow:

It almost appears the broad low may consolidate a little farther E where the deeper convection is.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#16 Postby Blown Away » Sun Oct 19, 2008 8:30 pm

Image

GFDL has almost a major cane (107 mph) crossing Florida N of Tampa and exiting near Daytona in less than 5 days. WOW :eek:
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#17 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Oct 19, 2008 8:40 pm

Of course, it's the GFDL...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#18 Postby DeanDaDream » Sun Oct 19, 2008 8:41 pm

Blown_away wrote:Image

GFDL has almost a major cane (107 mph) crossing Florida N of Tampa and exiting near Daytona in less than 5 days. WOW :eek:


I hope not, price of gas is 2.75 gal here.
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Re:

#19 Postby Blown Away » Sun Oct 19, 2008 8:52 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:Of course, it's the GFDL...


:uarrow: The GFDL is a decent model and if it shows a potential major cane moving towards Florida we should all keep an eye on this area.

Image
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caneman

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#20 Postby caneman » Sun Oct 19, 2008 10:13 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:Of course, it's the GFDL...


Not sure what you mean by that..... NHC seems to think pretty highly of this model.
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