Madagascar: OVERLAND DEPRESSION ex. IVAN (TC 18S)

[HURAKAN]

A lot of convection.

[HurricaneRobert]

The one in the far eastern Indian Ocean looks best. Is that one still at 'poor'?

[wyq614]

Now has upgraded to Fair

[HURAKAN]

06/0830 UTC 11.5S 56.8E T1.0/1.0 94S -- South Indian Ocean

[Chacor]

WTXS22 PGTW 070130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3S 59.4E TO 13.3S 64.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 070000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 59.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.5S 58.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 600 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. RECENT INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLI-
DATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
EQUATORWARD AND DEVELOPING BANDS POLEWARD OF THE CENTER. A 062121Z
AMSR-E 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH THE
AFORMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BANDING. PREVIOUS QUIKSCAT IMAGES DEPICTED
25 TO 30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS
BEEN IMPINGING ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES
TO MOVE WESTWARD, WHICH WILL CREATE AN EVEN MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRON-
MENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE AND IMPROVING
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 080130Z.//

[Coredesat]

Hmmmm...

[HURAKAN]

Excellent!!!

[HURAKAN]

[petet]

18S is fact

[HurricaneBill]

Next name on the list: "Ivan"

[Coredesat]

Tropical Depression 11R is here.

WTIO30 FMEE 070629

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/11/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11

2.A POSITION 2008/02/07 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 61.0E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 180 SO: 100 NO: 150

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/07 18 UTC: 13.9S/63.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2008/02/08 06 UTC: 14.6S/64.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2008/02/08 18 UTC: 15.3S/66.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/02/09 06 UTC: 16.2S/66.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/02/09 18 UTC: 16.7S/66.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/02/10 06 UTC: 17.2S/66.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5

THIS SYSTEM, FORMED SINCE A FEW DAYS IN THE VINCINITY OF AGALEGA, HAS
STRENGHEN LAST NIGHT. A QUICKSCAT PASS AT 01:54Z SHOWS UNFLAGED WINDS AT
30 KT AND DVORAK ESTIMATION GIVE CI AT 2.5. SO IT IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STATUS.

UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS HAS IMPROVED AS A CUT-OFF LOW IS PASSING SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM AND ENHENCED POLEWARDS DIVERGENCE.

MOTION IS STEERED BY THE THICK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS FLOW GENERATED BY THE
MID TROPOSPHERIC EQUATORIAL RIDGE. SO THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK IN THE SAME
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
STRENGHEN NEAR 70E, STEERING FLOW SHOULD BEEN WEAKER RESULTING ON GRADUAL
DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTXS33 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070121Z FEB 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 12.9S 60.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 60.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 13.4S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 13.6S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.5S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 13.2S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 61.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 770 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
070136Z TRMM IMAGE DEPICT A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTI-
MATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGE DEPICTING 25 TO
30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AS IT
TRACKS EASTWARD DUE TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF
THE DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 070121Z FEB 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 070130). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 070600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW), AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.

[HURAKAN]

Nice image!!!

[Chacor]

Named.

WTIO30 FMEE 071204

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/11/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/07 AT 1200 UTC :
13.9S / 61.3E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 180 SO: 100 NO: 150

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/08 00 UTC: 14.6S/63.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/02/08 12 UTC: 15.7S/64.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/02/09 00 UTC: 16.6S/64.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/02/09 12 UTC: 17.2S/64.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/02/10 00 UTC: 17.7S/64.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/02/10 12 UTC: 18.0S/63.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS HAS IMPROVED AS A CUT-OFF LOW SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM AND THEREFORE ENHANCES POLEWARDS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

SYSTEM IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE THICK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
FLOW GENERATED BY THE MID-LEVEL EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
THEREFORE KEEP ON TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEN, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS NEAR 70E AND A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE WEAKER
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE OF THE SPEED AND IN A SOUTHWARDS TRACK.

AVAILABLE NWP ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. US AND ARPEGE MODELS DO NOT DEEP
THE SYSTEM AND TRACK GLOBALLY EASTWARDS. THE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO ECMWF
MODEL SCENARIO, AS THIS MODEL PROPERLY ANALYZES THE SYSTEM IN LOCATION
AND INTENSITY.

[Chacor]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Now why does that name sound familiar?

[CrazyC83]

Now why does that name sound familiar?

At least the forecast isn't for another Ivan the Terrible...yet...

(I haven't been paying much attention to the tropics this week due to the outbreak)

[HurricaneRobert]

I thought retired names weren't allowed to show up on lists for at least ten years.

[CrazyC83]

I thought retired names weren't allowed to show up on lists for at least ten years.

Only in the basin affected.