Bay of Bengal : DEEP DEPRESSION (03B)

[HURAKAN]

WTIO21 PGTW 050030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
050 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.2N 87.8E TO 22.1N 87.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 050000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.4N 87.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.5N
87.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 87.8E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER OF A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING ALOFT. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS FROM REPORTING STATIONS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN INDIAN
COAST, NEAR THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE, INDICATE SURFACE PRESSURES
RANGING FROM 994 TO 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 995 MB. BASED ON THE GOOD LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE, LOW
ESTIMATED CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE, AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060030Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Looking really good

[HURAKAN]

04/2030 UTC 20.1N 87.5E T2.5/2.5 97B -- Bay of Bengal

TS intensity says Dvorak

[CrazyC83]

At least it is about to make landfall, but the rain could be a big problem.

[CrazyC83]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... _id_0.html

ASCAT has 30 kt barbs in the SE quad. Presumably there would be stronger winds in the NE quad, probably around 40 kt. Surface data also suggests a pressure around 990mb right now.

[ugaap]

Depression center seems to have reached the West Bengal coast.

[P.K.]

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 05-09-2009

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 05 SEPTEMBER, 2009 BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 05 SEPTEMBER, 2009.


LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERIES AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 05 SEPTEMBER 2009 NEAR LAT. 20.50 N AND LONG. 88.00 E, ABOUT 170 KM SOUTHEAST OF BALASORE (42895), 230 KM SOUTHT OF KOLKATA (42807)

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GRADUAL ORGANISATION OF CONVECTION DURING PAST TWELVE HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIES OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN NORTH OF LAT.17.00 N WEST OF LONG. 89.00 E ORISSA AND NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH.

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 990 HPA.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS LOW TO MODERATE (AROUND 10-20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPRATURE IS ABOUT 28.00 C. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REGION IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LEVEL. AS OBSERVED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 24 HOURS PRESSURE FALL IS HIGHER IN THE NORTHNORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND IS MAXIMUM (-6.6 hPa) OVER DIGHA.

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS NORTH ORISSA–WEST BENGAL COAST BETWEEN BALASORE (42895) AND DIAMOND HARBOUR (42811) BY EVENING/NIGHT OF TODAY THE 5TH SEPTEMBER 2009.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050021Z SEP 09//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 21.8N 88.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 88.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 23.4N 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 88.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (THREE) LOCATED 40 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA,
INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. A 050730Z MET-7 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A BROKEN
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LLCC. RECENT
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES INDICATE THE SYSTEM
HAS INTENSIFIED TO 35 KNOTS AT THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS LAND INTERACTION
CAUSES THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE INLAND. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 050021Z SEP 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 050030). THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 13 FEET.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[Chacor]

Deep depression.

WTIN20 DEMS 050945
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
--------------------------------
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 05-09-2009

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 05
SEPTEMBER,2009 BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 05 SEPTEMBER 2009 (.)

THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED IN A NORTH-
WESTERLY DIRECTION AND CONCENTRATED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION(.) IT LAY
CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY,THE 05 SEPTEMBER 2009 NEAR LAT.21.0 DEG
N AND LONG.87.0 DEG.E,ABOUT 70 KM SOUTHEAST OF BALASORE(42895),AND
150 KM SOUTH OF KOLKATA (42807).

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GRADUAL ORGANISATION OF CONVECTION
DURING PAST TWELVE HOURS.THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 2.0 ASSOCI-
ATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIES OVER BAY OF
BENGAL BETWEEN NORTH OF LAT.15.5 DEG N WEST OF LONG.90.0 DEG.E COASTAL
ORISSA AND SOUTH GANGTIC WEST BENGAL.

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT
30 KNOTS.THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE.THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 990 HPA.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS
LOW TO MODERATE (AROUND 10-20 KNOTS).SEA SURFACE TEMPRATURE IS
ABOUT 28.0 DEG.C.THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE.STRONG EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LEVEL.AS OBSERVED AT 0300 UTC OF
TODAY, THE 24 HOURS PRESSURE FALL IS HIGHER IN THE NORTHNORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION AND IS MAXIMUM(-6.6 HPA)OVER DIGHA.

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE,THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A
NORTHNORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS WEST BENGAL COAST NEAR DIGHA
(42901) BETWEEN 1000 TO 1400 UTC BY TODAY, THE 5TH SEPTEMBER 2009.

MSG OVER?????/=

[Chacor]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1800 UTC OF 05
SEPTEMBER,2009 BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 05 SEPTEMBER 2009 (.)

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NEARLY
NORTHERLY DIRECTION CROSSED WEST BENGAL COAST NEAR DIGHA(42901)
BETWEEN 0700 AND 0800 UTC OF TODAY THE 5TH SEPTEMBER 2009
IT FURTHER MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENERED AT
1200 UTC TODAY THE 5TH SEPTEMBER 2009 NEAR MIDNAPUR (42803) OVER
GANGETIC WEST BENGAL

THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY


THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THE SYSTEM=

[HURAKAN]

Impressive system. It has been inland for some time and still looks great.

[HURAKAN]

BOB 04/2009/06 Dated: 06. 09. 2009

Time of issue: 0100 hours IST

Sub: Deep Depression Gangetic West Bengal

The deep depression over Gangetic West Bengal near Midnapur moved slightly north-northwestwards and lay centred at 2330 hrs IST of today, the 5th September 2009 near Bankura over Gangetic West Bengal. The system is likely to move in a north-northwesterly direction.

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls( ³ 25 cms) at isolated places is likely over north Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal during next 36 hrs. Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places is also likely over Jharkhand, Bihar, north Chhatisgarh and east Madhya Pradesh during next 2-3 days.

Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph are likely along and off West Bengal and north Orissa coasts during next 06 hrs. Sea condition will be very rough to high along and off these coasts.

Damage expected: Minor damage to loose and unsecured structures.

Action suggested : Fishermen are advised not to venture into open sea.

Next bulletin will be issued at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 6th September 2009.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like it made landfall with winds around 45 kt and pressure around 988mb.