SIO: FANELE - Extratropical

[HURAKAN]

Very close to landfall, if not already.

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 JAN 2009 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 20:37:52 S Lon : 43:37:14 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 942.1mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.5 6.1 6.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -30.2C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[CrazyC83]

Seems to be strengthening as it comes ashore.

[Crostorm]

Landfall

[Crostorm]

Seems to be strengthening as it comes ashore.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 JAN 2009 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 20:40:35 S Lon : 43:41:47 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 936.5mb/107.2kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.6 5.2 5.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.1mb

Center Temp : -59.6C Cloud Region Temp : -71.5C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[HURAKAN]

Near Morondava, Madagascar:





Poor people.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

[somethingfunny]

Has the sun risen yet in Madagascar?

I wonder if our French-speaking members (Gustywind, possibly a few others) could track down some news reports from out there. I hope the government was able to get enough warning to the people in the landfall zone.

[HURAKAN]

Has the sun risen yet in Madagascar?

[Crostorm]

Madagascar: Tropical cyclone Fanele makes landfall in the Southwest Region

Blogger Pierre Maury is thinking of the Southwest region of Madagascar as Tropical Cyclone Fanele has made land fall at 4:17 am on January 21st 2009 (fr). The city of Belo-sur-Mer is threatended by gust of wind as fast as 281 km/h.

http://globalvoicesonline.org/2009/01/2 ... st-region/

blog

http://cultmada.blogspot.com/

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

451
WTIO30 FMEE 210620

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/7/20082009
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (EX-FANELE)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/21 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3S / 44.3E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 220 SE: 200 SO: 300 NO: 220
50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 22.7S/46.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2009/01/22 06 UTC: 23.6S/48.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2009/01/22 18 UTC: 24.4S/50.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2009/01/23 06 UTC: 25.8S/51.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2009/01/23 18 UTC: 27.6S/52.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/24 06 UTC: 28.9S/53.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
FANELE HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER THE WESTERN MALAGASY COAST AROUND
02:15Z.
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS OCCURED YESTERDAY EVENING AND HAS
CAUSED
SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER IT HAS GIVEN A
GREATER
EXTENSION TO THE MAX WINDS ...

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CROSS MADAGASCAR AND TO BE BACK AT
SEA
WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. IT SEEMS THAT FANELE HAS A SMALL
WINDOW
FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT MAKES ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.

MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST
TRACK, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SPEED.

FORECAST TRACK IS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW
DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILT SOUTHWARDS. SO,
IT
SEEMS THAT FANELE SHOULD NOT TAKE THE SAME TROUGH THAT ERIC ..=

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Weakening quickly.

WTIO30 FMEE 211227

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/7/20082009
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (EX-FANELE)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/21 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5S / 45.3E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE :
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 130 SE: 090 SO: 160 NO: 270

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 23.2S/47.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2009/01/22 12 UTC: 24.2S/49.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2009/01/23 00 UTC: 25.4S/51.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2009/01/23 12 UTC: 26.9S/52.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2009/01/24 00 UTC: 28.1S/52.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2009/01/24 12 UTC: 29.2S/53.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER LAND AND THE RESIDUAL EYE FEAURES THAT WAS SEEN UNTIL
06:30 TU HAS COLLAPSED GIVEN A NOT EASY TO FIND LLCC.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE BACK AT SEA TOMORROW MORNING. IT SEEMS THAT
FANELE HAS A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WITH A BETTER
TRADEWIND INFLOW AS SOME RIDGE IS TEMPORARELY REBUILT SOUTWARDS AND ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MOREOVER A NORTHWESTERN
SUBTROPICAL JET LOCATED AH
EAD OF SHORT MID-LAT TROUGH THAT SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY
COULD PRODUCE SOME GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

IT IS NOT UNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM REGAIN MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STATUS
.. LIMITANT FACTOR ARE COOLER SST (NO HEAT CONTAIN SOUTH OF 27S), SOME
WESTERLY MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR THAT COULD BE GENERATE BY THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONNED MID-LAT TROUGH, AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOME MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR FORECASTED
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK.

FORECAST TRACK IS GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD
SLOW DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILT
SOUTHWARDS. SO, FANELE SHOULD NOT TAKE THE SAME TROUGH THAT ERIC AND THE
CURRENT FORCAST IS EVEN SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHOULD NOT
OCCURED YET.

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

Still doesn't look all that bad - probably still a strong tropical storm. My guess for the landfall intensity was 105 kt.

[Crostorm]

Translated from google

Telephone communications were cut off since yesterday 17h/18h, except the central Morondava center that disjoncte late evening.

Mobile communications could be relayed to local 5:00 this morning, the relay Morondava was hit at first because we had a general clean break.

TSF's communications network of the operation Commission test2009 allowed to relay 200 calls last night to 00h00z to notify people, including some for lack of radio and lack of traffic suspected something but did not know name system (some thought it was Eric).

A 00h00z we imposed a blackout until the electric waves in the system are less harmful to the material.

The network transmits again piecemeal only for calls of distress.

Messages received in the meantime I can assure you that the night and especially the end of the night was apocalyptic for this area, winds had strengthened curiously at the Landfall, and the damage is well above what it was arguable .

The storm surge caused tidal waves in the region of Belo and Ankober.
The sea is still very strong in Tulear Andramasay (hollow and 12m +).

A Manometimay would Maharivo River overflowed its bed on the deck of the road to Ankevo.

Contrary to what the authorities announced, and I say very reliable source, the Landfall was preceded by a sustained rainfall during 3 hours non-stop in an area ranging from Belo-Tsiribihina to Andranopasy south of Ankober.

Dice 21:00 local yesterday it was reported that the floods were being caused by the rising waters of Tsiribihina at Berevo and Tsimafana.

At 07:00 local, two Partners for the operation which went to Morondava since Miandrivazo are stopped between Malaimbandy and Ankilizato on the RN34 by the flooded river (Sakamaly).

http://world-meteo.site.voila.fr/