SIO: GAEL - Severe Tropical Storm - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

Almost fully closed. It has definitely struggled to fully close the eyewall. I'd say that it has been steady as a Cat 1 for the last 24 hours or so. My guess right now is about 75 kt.

[CrazyC83]

06/0230 UTC 18.6S 53.8E T4.5/4.5 GAEL -- Southwest Indian

[Crostorm]

347
WTIO30 FMEE 060638

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/8/20082009
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL)

2.A POSITION 2009/02/06 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4S / 53.1E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 250
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/06 18 UTC: 18.8S/51.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2009/02/07 06 UTC: 19.9S/50.9E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2009/02/07 18 UTC: 20.8S/50.8E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2009/02/08 06 UTC: 22.2S/51.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2009/02/08 18 UTC: 24.0S/51.9E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2009/02/09 06 UTC: 26.1S/53.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0-

GAEL SHOWS AN EYE PATTERN WITH STILL A RAGGED EYE OVER THE LAST EIR
IMAGERY.

CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ANALYSIS IN EIR
IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.

MOTION AND SPEED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS IS ESTIMATED AT : 270/8KT

ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME FAVOURABLE AS THE WINDSHEAR HAS DECREASED AND DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF AN EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS LIMITED.

GAEL TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT
IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP ON TRACKING
WESTSOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND, A WEAKNESS IN THE MID TO
HIGH LEVEL RIDGE (DUE TO A MID LAT TROUGH) SHOULD RECURVE THE TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARDS,
AND THEN SOUTHWARDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ON IMPROVING: BETTER TRADES INFLOW,
HIGH SST, PRESENCE OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE TROUGH.

CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP
MODELS EXCEPT NOGAPS AND GFDN THAT APPEAR TOO MUCH EASTWARDS SINCE A LONG
TIME.

AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, COOLER SST SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING
TREND.

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

Still 955 hPa but up to 80 kt at 09z from MF.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

657
WTIO30 FMEE 061246

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/8/20082009
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL)

2.A POSITION 2009/02/06 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6S / 52.5E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 280
50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 090 NO: 070

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/07 00 UTC: 19.5S/51.4E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2009/02/07 12 UTC: 20.4S/51.1E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
36H: 2009/02/08 00 UTC: 21.5S/51.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
48H: 2009/02/08 12 UTC: 23.3S/51.9E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
60H: 2009/02/09 00 UTC: 25.4S/52.7E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2009/02/09 12 UTC: 27.2S/53.6E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5-

GAEL KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING. DVORAK ANALYSIS IN EIR GIVE AN AVERAGE
T-NUMBER OF 5.5- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS

MOTION AND SPEED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS IS ESTIMATED AT : 250/6KT

ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY BECOMING VERY FAVOURABLE WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
INFLOW AND PARTICULARLY WITH A VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITHIN THE
NEXT
24 HOURS WITH AN INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET
LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMAL INTENSITY SHOULD BE REACH WITHIN
THE
NEXT 36 HOURS
BEFORE COOLER SST AND A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT.

GAEL TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT
IN
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE THE TRACK SHOULD RECURVE
PROGRESSIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTH TOMORROW, THEN SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY.

CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP
MODELS EXCEPT NOGAPS AND GFDN THAT APPEAR TOO MUCH EASTWARDS SINCE A
LONG
TIME.=

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 061246

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/8/20082009
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL)

2.A POSITION 2009/02/06 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6S / 52.5E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 280
50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 090 NO: 070

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/07 00 UTC: 19.5S/51.4E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2009/02/07 12 UTC: 20.4S/51.1E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2009/02/08 00 UTC: 21.5S/51.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2009/02/08 12 UTC: 23.3S/51.9E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2009/02/09 00 UTC: 25.4S/52.7E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2009/02/09 12 UTC: 27.2S/53.6E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5-

GAEL KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING. DVORAK ANALYSIS IN EIR GIVE AN AVERAGE
T-NUMBER OF 5.5- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS

MOTION AND SPEED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS IS ESTIMATED AT : 250/6KT

ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY BECOMING VERY FAVOURABLE WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
INFLOW AND PARTICULARLY WITH A VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH AN INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET
LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMAL INTENSITY SHOULD BE REACH WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS
BEFORE COOLER SST AND A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT.

GAEL TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT IN
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE THE TRACK SHOULD RECURVE
PROGRESSIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTH TOMORROW, THEN SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY.

CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP
MODELS EXCEPT NOGAPS AND GFDN THAT APPEAR TOO MUCH EASTWARDS SINCE A LONG
TIME.

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 100 knots

[Fadil]

do you think its going to turn south east like ngp predicted?

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 18.6S 52.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 52.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.2S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.0S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.0S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.2S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 52.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. TC 13S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED TO 100 KNOTS SINCE THE
PREVIOUS WARNING DUE TO IMPROVED SURFACE CONSOLIDATION AND ENHANCED
OUTFLOW ALOFT. THIS IMPROVEMENT IS EVIDENCED BY ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH DEPICTS GOOD ORGANIZATION WITH
FURTHER DEFINTION OF A WELL ESTABLISHED 15 NM EYE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND 06-HOUR MOTION WHICH ARE
CONFIRMED BY A 060930Z TRMM IMAGE DEPICTING A SYMMETRIC, TIGHTLY-
WRAPPED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
102 KNOTS AND AN AMSU SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 99 KNOTS.
TC 13S CURRENTLY SLOWING AND BEGINNING TO MIGRATE POLEWARD, AND IS
FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH,
CURRENTLY OVER MADGASCAR. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND
PROVIDE AN ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY STEERING
INFLUENCE AS WELL AS AN IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON THE CONSENSUS OF THOSE AIDS WHICH INDICATE A FURTHER DECREASE IN
TRACK SPEED BY TAU 12, AND INTENSIFICATION TO 125 KTS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS
23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW 061500) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.

[Crostorm]

287
WTIO30 FMEE 061812

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/8/20082009
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL)

2.A POSITION 2009/02/06 AT 1800 UTC :
19.2S / 52.3E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 941 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 350 NO: 280
50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 090 NO: 070

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/07 06 UTC: 19.4S/52.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2009/02/07 18 UTC: 21.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2009/02/08 06 UTC: 22.7S/52.5E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2009/02/08 18 UTC: 24.7S/53.5E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2009/02/09 06 UTC: 27.1S/54.7E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2009/02/09 18 UTC: 29.0S/56.2E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5

ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING VERY FAVOURABLE WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND
PARTICULARLY WITH A VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS WITH AN INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET LOCATED
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMAL INTENSITY SHOULD BE REACH WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS BEFO
RE COOLER SST AND A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT.

GAEL TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT IN
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TRACKING SOUTHWARDS DURING FEW HOURS,
THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO TRACK NOW SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO
RECURVE ONCE MORE PROGRESSIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTH TOMORROW, THEN
SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARD
S SUNDAY.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

105 knots

[HURAKAN]

Solid storm.

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 FEB 2009 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 19:12:33 S Lon : 52:01:10 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 945.1mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.4 5.9 6.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +4.9C Cloud Region Temp : -76.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************