EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES (02E)

[srainhoutx]

Upgrade at RECON IMHO.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track,55 kts

EP, 02, 2009062300, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1028W, 55, 994, TS

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 230025
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0025 UTC TUE JUN 23 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES (EP022009) 20090623 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090623 0000 090623 1200 090624 0000 090624 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.5N 102.8W 18.0N 103.1W 19.5N 103.8W 20.3N 104.5W
BAMD 16.5N 102.8W 17.6N 104.2W 18.7N 105.7W 19.4N 107.2W
BAMM 16.5N 102.8W 18.0N 104.0W 19.4N 105.3W 20.3N 106.8W
LBAR 16.5N 102.8W 17.6N 103.8W 19.2N 105.1W 20.6N 106.5W
SHIP 55KTS 59KTS 60KTS 57KTS
DSHP 55KTS 59KTS 60KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090625 0000 090626 0000 090627 0000 090628 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.6N 105.5W 21.3N 107.8W 22.5N 110.1W 23.2N 113.2W
BAMD 20.1N 109.0W 21.3N 112.7W 23.0N 116.6W 25.3N 120.1W
BAMM 21.0N 108.5W 22.1N 112.5W 23.5N 116.4W 25.0N 120.4W
LBAR 21.9N 108.2W 23.8N 111.6W 26.4N 113.6W 28.9N 114.4W
SHIP 50KTS 33KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 50KTS 33KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 102.8W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 101.9W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 101.5W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1004MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222205
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 102.0W OR ABOUT
125 MILES S OF LAZARO CARDENAS AND ABOUT 230 MILES SSE OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 22/2100 UTC MOVING W 4 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50
KT GUSTS 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPEP/WTPZ32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2 WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAS SHOWN
THAT THE OVERALL CLOUD STRUCTURE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS. LATEST PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE WHAT MAY BE AN EYE FEATURE FORMING
WITHIN THE DENSE CIRRUS OVERCAST OVER THE CENTER. THIS IS
SUGGESTING FURTHER STRENGTHENING...AND THE CYCLONE MAY BECOME A
HURRICANE SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL NHC GUIDANCE FORECAST SHOWS.
A GROWING LARGE CLUSTER OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER
AND AROUND THE CENTER. THIS CONVECTION IS MARKED BY NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE
QUADRANT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE CENTER OVER THE S AND SW QUADRANTS AND WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 104W-107W...AND E
OF THE CYCLONE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 94W-98W.

[HURAKAN]

[MGC]

Yep, Andres looks on the way to become a hurricane.....MGC

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUN 2009 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 16:34:08 N Lon : 102:41:03 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 986.1mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.2 4.3 4.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.3mb

Center Temp : -78.6C Cloud Region Temp : -77.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Ed Mahmoud]

Why doesn't Andres show up on Active Storm Map.

For that matter, when does it roll over to 2009?

[RL3AO]

Why doesn't Andres show up on Active Storm Map.

For that matter, when does it roll over to 2009?

One of the admins needs to change the image link.

Code: Select all

http://www.storm2k.org/weather//images/tropical/plotsystemforecast_nt_pz_pa_2008_active_invests_fulltropics_merc_640x280_640_480.jpg

They need to change the year to 2009.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ22 KNHC 230240
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
0300 UTC TUE JUN 23 2009

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTO SAN
TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 103.1W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 80SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 103.1W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 102.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.8N 104.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.2N 105.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 107.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 22.0N 118.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 103.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
592
WTPZ32 KNHC 230241
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2009

...ANDRES GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTO SAN
TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...165 KM...SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 170
MILES...275 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... ANDRES
SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE AS ANDRES MOVES CLOSE TO THE WARNING AREA.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.8N 103.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA


WTPZ42 KNHC 230241
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2009

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ANDRES
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DEVELOP...WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED
WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. EARLIER TRMM AND AMSU-B PASSES
ALSO INDICATE WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND THE POSSIBLE
FORMATION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL. 0000 UTC T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND
SAB ARE BOTH 3.5 AND ARE USED TO SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 55
KT.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGES
AND CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS SHOW A LARGE AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO...WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFFSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
ANDRES' CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD HEADING...FORECAST REASONABLY WELL BY
SEVERAL TRACK MODELS...APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS ...WHICH SHOULD STEER ANDRES MORE TOWARD THE WEST...BUT NOT
BEFORE IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW NEARLY 20 KT OF NORTHEAST TO EAST
SHEAR OVER ANDRES AND MOST OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE IN ABOUT A DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT UPWARD
INTENSITY TREND AND THE WARM SSTS ALONG ITS TRACK...A CONTINUED BUT
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS IS ANTICIPATED.
ANDRES IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 12 HOURS BUT
SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN INGESTING STABLE AIR IN ABOUT
36 HOURS...RESULTING IN A MORE RAPID DECREASE IN STRENGTH. IT
SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT...IF ANDRES MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK...IT COULD INTERACT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH LAND AND
WEAKEN FASTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 16.8N 103.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 17.8N 104.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 19.2N 105.6W 65 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 20.5N 107.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 21.0N 108.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 27/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 28/0000Z 22.0N 118.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Why doesn't Andres show up on Active Storm Map.

For that matter, when does it roll over to 2009?

Its now working for 2009.

[HURAKAN]

[OpieStorm]

Looks like it's quickly getting to hurricane status.

[mcallum177]

This is a noob question but how come on the quick scat wind pages there is a large gap right where this storm is located?

[senorpepr]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230831
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009

...ANDRES NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTO SAN
TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK... ANDRES SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO...OR OVER...THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA.

...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.4N 103.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230831
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH ANDRES HAS ONLY BECOME SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THERE IS A PERSISTENT...VERY COLD-TOPPED...CDO BUT THE BANDING
FEATURES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 AND 3.5 RESPECTIVELY. SPLITTING THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELDS 60 KT AND THIS
IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ATTAIN HURRICANE STATUS LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT NOT OCCUR
IF ANDRES INTERACTS MORE WITH THE MEXICAN LANDMASS THAN EXPECTED.
BY 36 HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BEGIN CROSSING A
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT OF SST AND APPROACHING A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.
THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS A MORE GRADUAL WEAKENING
THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT IF THAT MODEL IS CORRECT THEN ANDRES
WILL NOT LAST AS LONG AS INDICATED BELOW.

BASED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE FIXES... THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE...320/7...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE LAST
ADVISORY. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS
ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT SINCE
ANDRES IS SO CLOSE TO THE COAST ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS COULD RESULT IN THE CENTER MOVING
ONSHORE. AS NOTED EARLIER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION OF ANDRES WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THIS WOULD ONLY SEEM
POSSIBLE IF THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER LAND. IN 3
TO 5 DAYS...AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY WINDS DOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...ANDRES OR ITS REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CARRIED
MAINLY WESTWARD BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 17.4N 103.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 18.6N 104.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 19.9N 105.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 20.9N 107.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 21.5N 109.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 22.0N 112.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 27/0600Z 22.0N 115.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 28/0600Z 22.0N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[theavocado]

This is a noob question but how come on the quick scat wind pages there is a large gap right where this storm is located?

Not a bad question, even though I know the answer, I often ask it out of frustration.

Quickscat is a satellite in a polar orbiting pattern, that it to say it travels from the north pole to the south pole and then back while the Earth rotates underneath it. The satellite looks down and images with its scatterometer on a fixed, unchangeable pattern. Unfourtunately, the width of the footprint of the imager is narrower than the spacing between the passes, so there is a gap in the data that gets widest near the equator. Currently, 02E is in that gap. Luckily, we also have ASCAT and WindSAT to help fill the gaps.

[theavocado]

Luckily, we also have ASCAT and WindSAT to help fill the gaps.

[KWT]

Looks very good, nice deep convection still present around the center of the CDO.

Will be interesting to see what recon shows.