ATL : INVEST 93L

[cheezyWXguy]

:uarrow: Here is the link to the 93L models thread.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=105674&start=0

thanks cycloneye.

btw, has anyone noticed the eddy on the north side of the system? looks to take up a good portion of the north side of the system
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Sanibel]

Disclaimer: Internet weenie opinion and not official:


Good point about weaker disturbances surviving Yucatan better that stronger ones.

Seeing the better mid-level convergence I'd gamble with development at this point from past behavior of similar disturbances. The only question will be if it is one of those broad GOM June TS's or something tighter. Still, the wise forecaster waits and sees.

[Ed Mahmoud]

NOGAPS and Euro not impressed.

[Ed Mahmoud]

:uarrow: Here is the link to the 93L models thread.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=105674&start=0

NoGaps and Euro not impressed...


If I had an official scale, which I don't, I'd go from yellow to pastel blue, under 15%.

Of course, I am an amateur and don't have an official color scale.

[HouTXmetro]

I thought the Yucatan helps weak systems tighten up.

[srainhoutx]

I will say congrats NAM for sniffing this out for the past 48 hours. The new NAM may have scored a coup.

[cheezyWXguy]

Disclaimer: Internet weenie opinion and not official:


Good point about weaker disturbances surviving Yucatan better that stronger ones.

Seeing the better mid-level convergence I'd gamble with development at this point from past behavior of similar disturbances. The only question will be if it is one of those broad GOM June TS's or something tighter. Still, the wise forecaster waits and sees.

If/Once it develops, there's not a whole lot seen at this point that could really slow it down from becoming a hurricane, unless it continues to drift west, bringing it to slightly cooler water temps, and less time over water. Other than that, especially if it goes NE, then I think its possible-assuming it develops at all-to ramp up in strength and possibly become a hurricane. Much too early at this point tho

[Sjones]

interesting model run from wunderground...


http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp

[HouTXmetro]

interesting model run from wunderground...


http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp

Looks like it will tangle with a front which slows it and eventually turns it Northeast once reaching the Central GOM. I'm haveing trouble believing such a front will make it into the Given the opressive Death Ridge in these parts.

[HURAKAN]

[Stormcenter]

A hurricane....hmmmmm I don't know about that.

Disclaimer: Internet weenie opinion and not official:


Good point about weaker disturbances surviving Yucatan better that stronger ones.

Seeing the better mid-level convergence I'd gamble with development at this point from past behavior of similar disturbances. The only question will be if it is one of those broad GOM June TS's or something tighter. Still, the wise forecaster waits and sees.

If/Once it develops, there's not a whole lot seen at this point that could really slow it down from becoming a hurricane, unless it continues to drift west, bringing it to slightly cooler water temps, and less time over water. Other than that, especially if it goes NE, then I think its possible-assuming it develops at all-to ramp up in strength and possibly become a hurricane. Much too early at this point tho

[ROCK]

nada at the surface. the Euro doesnt sniff it nor the CMC or NOGAPS. Got that feeling of poofness....

[HouTXmetro]

nada at the surface. the Euro doesnt sniff it nor the CMC or NOGAPS. Got a that feeling of poofness....

Yeah, but I thought it would poof last night but it didn't. NHC has given it a code orange so that should say something.

[ROCK]

I will say congrats NAM for sniffing this out for the past 48 hours. The new NAM may have scored a coup.

Steve, its the NAM and always will be the NAM....every blind squirrel finds a acorn once in a while.....

[Evil Jeremy]

My computer died a few days ago. Of course, it has to do so once something starts popping up in the Caribbean and the models point it my way lol. Anyways, I like how the NHC is thinking about when this system moves into the GOM instead of about its chances for formation at the given moment.

[srainhoutx]

I will say congrats NAM for sniffing this out for the past 48 hours. The new NAM may have scored a coup.

Steve, its the NAM and always will be the NAM....every blind squirrel finds a acorn once in a while.....

Point taken Paul, but facts are facts...

[cycloneye]

There is a nice eddy well north of the main action (Near the Isle of Youth)That may be what caused the convection to be strong last night.



Loop below.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

[Stormcenter]

I have hard time seeing this move anywhere but NE if and when it enters the GOM. JMHO

interesting model run from wunderground...


http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp

Looks like it will tangle with a front which slows it and eventually turns it Northeast once reaching the Central GOM. I'm haveing trouble believing such a front will make it into the Given the opressive Death Ridge in these parts.

[MGC]

I don't see anything coming of this in the next few days. A wave interacting with a ULL over BOC is causing all the convection in the NW Carb. Does look like a UL ridge is building over the NW Carb. I might have a chance of development once over the GOM. At this point I'll take a weak TS as long as I get some heavy rains....MGC

[ROCK]

I will say congrats NAM for sniffing this out for the past 48 hours. The new NAM may have scored a coup.

Steve, its the NAM and always will be the NAM....every blind squirrel finds a acorn once in a while.....

Point taken Paul, but facts are facts...

it did sniff Alberto a few years back before the upgrades.....hmmm