EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)

[clfenwi]

Given the way this one is developing I do wonder whether its going to feel a bigger tug to the north then some of the models are expecting bar the hurricane models?

That has been the dilemma from the start. GFDL does seem to be showing some right bias early on:

12Z forecast position from 00Z run: 14.2 N 102.3 E
12Z Forecast position from 06Z run: 14.4 N 102.7 E
12z best track position: 14.1N 102.8E

[KWT]

Though to be fair it seems to have been wobbling alot further north recently, probably due to the explosive strengthening that is likely occuring, probably now 14.6/102.3, pretty much already near the same latitude as the NHC forecast point but it will probably now take a westward jog I'd imagine.

[cyclonic chronic]

the presentation of this is how i imagine the 1935 fl. keys hurricane that blew away previous barometric press. readings. small, strong and quickly intensifying.

[clfenwi]

12z GFS track is very similar to the previous run and slightly west after 120h. No real change in its weak intensity depiction.

12Z NOGAPS does have the change in depiction and has a very different track forecast from 00Z as a result. Keeps the storm well away from land.

[cycloneye]

Remember,this was 93L in the Caribbean,just didnt have time to develop there due to land.

[Macrocane]

It seems that he EPAC was jelous for the lot of attention that the ATL had with Danny and Bill and it bring to life Jimena.

[fasterdisaster]

80 mph is the underestimation of the century.

[Cookie]

It seems that he EPAC was jelous for the lot of attention that the ATL had with Danny and Bill and it bring to life Jimena.

been plenty to track in the EPAC, 5 hurricanes this season.

always going to be more attention Atlantic side

[CrazyC83]

80 mph is the underestimation of the century.

My guess right now is about 105-110 mph with a pressure around 952mb.

[Macrocane]

It seems that he EPAC was jelous for the lot of attention that the ATL had with Danny and Bill and it bring to life Jimena.

been plenty to track in the EPAC, 5 hurricanes this season.

always going to be more attention Atlantic side

I know But it seems that Jimena will be the hurricane that will caught more attention so far this season if it becomes the monster that some of us have been saying.

[clfenwi]

Will be interesting to watch the ADT data to see how long the T number remains constrained. Wilma had three streches ~ 12 hours long where it was constrained. Jimena looks like it's numbers are going to be similarly capped for a longer stretch.

[bombarderoazul]

The eye is becoming more visible, I wouldn't be surprised to see a major hurricane later today.

[CrazyC83]

The eye is becoming more visible, I wouldn't be surprised to see a major hurricane later today.

If it isn't already. I wouldn't be surprised to see a special advisory issued in the next hour.

The eye has to be no more than 5 or 6 miles wide...

[clfenwi]

[KWT]

In this case the NHC are clearly going to have to over ride the Dvorak estimates since they are clearly to low, very likely this is a category-2 already.

[CrazyC83]

This is classic El Nino conditions. Almost all of the EPAC monsters were in strong El Nino years, could Jimena join them?

[clfenwi]

(edited to add link to complete loop)

12Z HWRF's inner core depiction at 48h:



Complete loop

[KWT]

The HWRF still is rapidly deepening this one as we can see this occuring and also still has it hitting Mexico. I'm guessing this is the model as per normal having an eastern bias but still the GFDL also is very keen on doing it.

By the way the pinhole eye is already north of where it was forecasted to be by 00 UTC, just keep that in mind given what the HWRF and GFDL both do with this system...

[HurricaneRobert]

How big is that eye? It looks smaller than the 2 nm record.

[clfenwi]

29/1745 UTC 14.8N 103.8W T5.0/5.0 JIMENA -- East Pacific