ATL : INVEST 94L

[Ivanhater]

After looking at the run. the reason for this track, the second front is not as strong and misses it, then she moves around the edge of the high as it moves east

[Brent]

18Z GFS goes crazy with this thing now, major cane in the GOM (albeit way out at 324 hours).

Ivanhater, check it out:

Major hurricane in the Gulf on November 4th... I think I'll go play the lottery now. Better chance of winning than that happening.

[Derek Ortt]

it weakens significantly before landfall

it COULD happen... Kate was a cat 3 in the GOM. It also behaved like nearly every other strong GOM hurricane and rapidly weakened just prior to landfall

[cycloneye]

I would not get excited with a run especially with a 18z run because those dont have all the data that the 12z and 00z runs have.Now,if the 00z run later tonight shows similar scenario,then more attention has to be payed.

[AtlanticWind]

it weakens significantly before landfall

it COULD happen... Kate was a cat 3 in the GOM. It also behaved like nearly every other strong GOM hurricane and rapidly weakened just prior to landfall

It could happen but the GFS at 2 weeks out , I would stick with climo at this point.

[Ivanhater]

An idea for intensity

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ronjon]

18Z GFS looks very Opalish - of course about four weeks later.

[StarmanHDB]

Interesting how on Sunday, a close friend who posts on this board called to tell me to "keep my eye on the Western Caribbean". Out of respect to him, I'm not going to mention his name, but in regards to tropical weather, this guy never posts or makes any comments to anyone unless he's completely sure. Pretty amazing!

How do you guys do this?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS
IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[ronjon]

That 18Z GFS run is strange - pretty strong trough and cold front blowing through the northern gulf on October 28th yet the low pressure doesn't get picked up - hard to believe.

[gatorcane]

it weakens significantly before landfall

it COULD happen... Kate was a cat 3 in the GOM. It also behaved like nearly every other strong GOM hurricane and rapidly weakened just prior to landfall

Yeah not to mention SSTs across much of the GOM have cooled since that powerful front.
They couldn't support a major cane at this point in my opinion.

GFS is on crack. The 12Z ECMWF is more realistic -- a weak system pulling NE ahead of a trough.....

[cycloneye]

That 18Z GFS run is strange - pretty strong trough and cold front blowing through the northern gulf on October 28th yet the low pressure doesn't get picked up - hard to believe.

I would wait for the 00z suite to see if it shows the same.Remember that the 00z and 12z runs have more data than the 06z and 18z runs.

[gatorcane]

I highly doubt the 00Z will show what the 18Z does. Just no way that is going to pan out. I think the 00Z backs down quite a bit on this GOM can thing.

[Ivanhater]

To be fair, this far out. Whatever the models are showing now (including tonight's run) are going to change. Storms have hit the Panhandle, even in November. Depends on the set-up. However, I would stick with climo right now, given that we are still looking at the long range and models are flip flopping. Either way, the 2009 season may not go gently into that goodnight

[HURAKAN]

Not looking bad tonight

[wxman57]

No models run on 94 since 12Z. Doesn't really appear to qualify for an invest at this time. It's days away from any real chance of development, and the vorticity center appears to be inland over coastal Nicaragua tonight. I'm starting to feel a bit better about this system, meaning a decreasing chance of development.

[Ivanhater]

No models run on 94 since 12Z. Doesn't really appear to qualify for an invest at this time. It's days away from any real chance of development, and the vorticity center appears to be inland over coastal Nicaragua tonight. I'm starting to feel a bit better about this system, meaning a decreasing chance of development.

Just taking a look at the models, it seems the genesis of this system will take place just west of Jamaica, not Central America. I would have the opposite feeling, now that the GFS has latched onto development. Still plenty of time to see though.

[bucman1]

Is the possible scenario the european model is showing the scenario that could threaten West Central Florida?

[Dean4Storms]

Not out of the question as far as moving eventually into the central Gulf if it stays stalled down there way into next week, otherwise you would have to bet on it headed toward Cuba, FL Straits or South Florida. Gonna need watching for sure!