WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[cebuboy]

Good evening guys!

Good evening We're up for another busy week of storm tracking...

Good morning!!!

Good morning too. Although it is 2:11am here in Philippines.Thanks for the update.

[cycloneye]

Looks very good now after looking crappy earlier today.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTPN21 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 153.3E TO 14.7N 145.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 251730Z INDICATES A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N
152.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3N
155.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST
OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND A 251931Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE
LOW LEVEL BANDS CONVERGING NEAR THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MINIMAL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING JUST WEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS ACCESS TO POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO A WEAK TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 DEGREES TO THE EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
262100Z.//
NNNN

[breeze]

Wow, Luis, you're good! That TCFA wasn't posted, so I went over to the Navy site and read it,
and came right back here and - there it was!

You and HURAKAN always do a great job of keeping on top of everything!

[cycloneye]

NWS GUAM Discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
636 AM CHST MON OCT 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF CHUUK. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OVER THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTH OF CHUUK. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AND AFFECT THE MARIANAS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

QUILSCAT PLACED THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR 9N154E
SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
HINTS AT A POSITION A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. MODELS PLACE THE
CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE CLOSE TO 10N150E BY 00Z THIS MORNING.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF GUAM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THE FORECAST ARE THE WINDS. FOR
THIS USED A COMBINATION OF GFS AND ECMWF WINDS. GFS WAS USED UNTIL
26/18Z AND ECMWF THROUGH 27/18Z. GFS CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT WINDS
AND THE HIGHLY ELONGATED SHAPE OF THE CIRCULATION DEPICTED IN THE
GFS APPEAR UNREALISTIC. QUICKSCAT AND ASCAT INDICATED A WIND MAX
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER SUNDAY NIGHT.
PROGRESSING THESE WINDS ACROSS THE MARIANAS WOULD BRING THIS
MAXIMA OVER THE SOUTH FOUR ISLANDS. RELUCTANT TO GO TOO HIGH ON
THE WINDS AT THIS TIME SO CAPPED THEM AT 16 KNOTS. USING 35
PERCENT IN THE WIND GUST TOOL YIELDS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE.

LEFT SHOWER FORECAST AS IS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LEFT ISOLATED FOR THAT PERIOD FOR NOW. WITH SYSTEM STILL
ILL DEFINED THINK IT IS PRUDENT TO WAIT AND SEE HOW LARGE THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL GET BEFORE EXPANDING THE TEMPORAL PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LEFT THIS FORECAST AS IS. STILL CAPPED SEAS AT 6 TO 7 FEET. MAY
HAVE TO REVISE THIS UPWARD. ALTIMETRY INDICATED SEAS ALREADY
BETWEEN 8 TO 10 FEET WITH SOME PLACES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 12 FEET
JUST NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. IT THE SYSTEM BECOMES A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OR MINIMAL STORM THESE SEAS WILL NEED A REFRESH.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
JTWC ADVISED THAT A TCFA WILL BE ISSUED THIS MORNING. A POSSIBLE
UPGRADE TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY BEFORE THE END OF THE
DAY. LOOKING AT SATELLITE THIS MORNING INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
ATTEMPTING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WILL BE REFRESHED THIS MORNING.


NWS GUAM Special Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
732 AM CHST MON OCT 26 2009

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-260700-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
732 AM CHST MON OCT 26 2009

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF
GUAM NEAR 13N152E CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.

THE SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...BASED ON SATELLITE
DATA...ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 MPH.

THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS TOWARD THE MARIANAS...WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR GUAM ON TUESDAY.

SINCE OCTOBER IS ONE OF THE PEAK MONTHS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES IN
MICRONESIA...RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
DISTURBANCE. WEAK DISTURBANCES CAN QUICKLY INTENSIFY THIS TIME OF
YEAR IN THIS PART OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC...AND WATCHES OR WARNINGS
MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED ON SHORT NOTICE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL UPDATE THIS INFORMATION AS NEEDED
BASED ON FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.

$$
ZIOBRO

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

[ozonepete]

Wow, Luis, you're good! That TCFA wasn't posted, so I went over to the Navy site and read it,
and came right back here and - there it was!

You and HURAKAN always do a great job of keeping on top of everything!

I second that! These guys are the best.

[cycloneye]

JMA 18 UTC Update

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 11N 152E WEST 15 KT

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/g3/

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[dowdavek]

Forecasts starting to guess possible effects here on Guam.....

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Northeast wind around 14 mph.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. North northeast wind between 11 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. East northeast wind between 13 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Southeast wind between 10 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. South southeast wind between 10 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[oaba09]

So...It's now TD...This just became more interesting

[metenthusiast]

Looking good

Yes, and it looks more organized now...

[metenthusiast]

So...It's now TD...This just became more interesting

Very interesting. This is from JTWC: "THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD."

[ozonepete]

I'm wondering if this may recurve after it passes the islands. Right now there is a big trough between those islands and the Philippines. If the STR doesn't build westward over the next few days, this will recurve to the north.

[JTE50]

Can anyone post the JTWC TCFA graphic. The link doesn't work for me. Thanks.

[oaba09]

Can anyone post the JTWC TCFA graphic. The link doesn't work for me. Thanks.

Sorry Jim...The website seems to have a problem...

[cycloneye]

Can anyone post the JTWC TCFA graphic. The link doesn't work for me. Thanks.

[ozonepete]

cycloneye has special powers.

[oaba09]

:uarrow: cycloneye has special powers.

I still can't get through the site....How'd he do that

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: cycloneye has special powers.

I still can't get through the site....How'd he do that

ATCF link.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/index1.html

[oaba09]

:uarrow: cycloneye has special powers.

I still can't get through the site....How'd he do that

ATCF link.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/index1.html

Thanks!