ATL: INVEST (97L)

[poof121]

Not a pleasant trip for 97L in terms of the shear.

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            *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      INVEST  AL972009  07/18/09  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    23    25    28    34    40    46    49    50    52    55    56
V (KT) LAND       20    21    23    25    28    34    40    46    49    50    52    55    56
V (KT) LGE mod    20    20    21    22    23    26    29    33    35    36    36    35    35

SHEAR (KT)        11    11    13    16    16     9    19    18    25    27    30    26    30
SHEAR DIR          1     6   354   353     2   336   330   312   328   333   335   333   343
SST (C)         26.6  26.6  26.8  27.1  27.4  27.5  27.6  27.9  28.2  28.7  28.9  28.6  28.4
 

At this site you can find all the runs of SHIP.

This one (12 UTC) is the last one at the bottom.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

Seems to deepen despite the shear... Only thing seeming to go for it is increasing SST.

[wxman57]

It's even weaker today, losing it's mid-level spin. Can't see how this qualifies as an invest today (not that it did yesterday). Perhaps the NHC was getting a little bored, or they wanted to make sure that everything was still working since it's been a while after the last invest. So long, in fact, that they forgot what number they were on.

Oh, by the way, I didn't mention it here, but they were running model guidance on that disturbance ahead of 97L when it was closer to Africa. They hid the guidance in the test storm area. They might have done that for another disturbance, too, and that could have led someone to think this was 97L vs 95L.

Just went and made a surface plot of 97L. Wow! Look at the pressure near the wave! 1017mb! That's very high for the ITCZ.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It's even weaker today, losing it's mid-level spin. Can't see how this qualifies as an invest today (not that it did yesterday). Perhaps the NHC was getting a little bored, or they wanted to make sure that everything was still working since it's been a while after the last invest. So long, in fact, that they forgot what number they were on.

Oh, by the way, I didn't mention it here, but they were running model guidance on that disturbance ahead of 97L when it was closer to Africa. They hid the guidance in the test storm area. They might have done that for another disturbance, too, and that could have led someone to think this was 97L vs 95L.

I thought I had slept through a couple of invests, that, or they were so boring I couldn't remember them.

[Sanibel]

Have to wait it out to see if it's a d-min, but I think it's wiped out.

[Ed Mahmoud]

There is still some cyclonic turning near 12ºN, 44ºW. The low cloud elements South of that are barely moving West at all, as compared to the low clouds North of there, giving an impression of rotation.

Of course, if the low cloud elements were actually moving from West to East beneath the apparent low level center, it would be more than just an impression of rotation.

Some storms close to that, if I were King of Invests, I'd give it another 12 hours or so.

[wxman57]

Have to wait it out to see if it's a d-min, but I think it's wiped out.

I think it was wiped out yesterday, but it's worse today. No harm in keeping it an invest as far as NHC is concerned, though. The general public don't even know what an invest is. All they see is the TDO (if that), and the TDO says it's just a wave with little chance of developing whether it's an invest or not. Keeping it an invest does give them the opportunity to make sure all is working with the programs.

[poof121]

Wonder why GFDL and HWRF aren't running...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Wonder why GFDL and HWRF aren't running...

IMHO, a passive-aggressive way of saying 97L isn't invest worthy anymore, if it ever was.

But look what the Canadian does with this in a week! Big storm, just missing the Maritime Provinces on Day 9! (I posted it on the model thread).

[wxman57]

Wonder why GFDL and HWRF aren't running...

Possibly because development chances were closer to 1% than 30%? It does take a little work to run them, but it's not like they're swamped these days. It's the same at our office. They're starting to wonder if we need a hurricane team this year.

[Pedro Fernández]

Really, many systems formed in oriental waters of the Atlantic Ocean have had better aspect that this tropical wave, and they haven't labeled as invests

[poof121]

Wonder why GFDL and HWRF aren't running...

Possibly because development chances were closer to 1% than 30%? It does take a little work to run them, but it's not like they're swamped these days. It's the same at our office. They're starting to wonder if we need a hurricane team this year.

Maybe they're taking the weekend off...

[wxman57]

Really, many systems formed in open waters of the Atlantic Ocean have had better aspect that this tropical wave, and they haven't labeled as invests

True, but this one was heading for the Caribbean. The wave in front of it is far more significant, though. Why choose the weaker of the two? The mysteries of the NHC...

[jinftl]

Not in a hurry to recurve....perhaps a weaker system will be able to get further west...will it develop down the line, that is the question.

[KWT]

Probably because this has a slight chance in the 2-3 days following it being tagged whilst the wave in front was about to have a date with 40kts of shear?

I suspect in time the wave in front will get tagged an invest.

[Sanibel]

Maybe wave #1 will come out the other side of the shear and form.

[DESTRUCTION5]

**Yawn** Wake me up when its west of 60 and has convection..

[Steve H.]

Seems like 97L has a Siamese twin. A more well-defined circulation is showing up at about 39.5W/12N. Multiple vortices are present, unless I am just looking at the convection. This 97L/wave may have a chance down the road.

[x-y-no]

Remarkably close correlation of all three BAM models for the first three days. After that, it looks like it runs into the subtropical jet, with the shallow bam running ahead of the deeper models.

But if it tracks more westerly into the Caribbean, it might be that it mises the jet to the south, in which case the prospect for development gets much better.

[KWT]

Maybe wave #1 will come out the other side of the shear and form.

That is probably not a bad call actually, esp if the shear does ease off a little eventually and the wave axis hasn't stormed miles ahead of the convection.

[cycloneye]

There is a thread at weather attic forum,where the members who live in the Eastern Caribbean are posting their observations about what is going on as the wave at 60W moves thru.There is also a web cam located in ST Marteen on a beach.Anyone who dont live in the islands can chim in there to make comments about the wave.

Link to Eastern Caribbean Thread.

Eastern Caribbean Thread