WPAC : TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W)

[Macrocane]

A very beautiful typhoon, it is and will be a very exciting system to track.

[CrazyC83]

14/2030 UTC 16.7N 146.9E T6.5/6.5 CHOI-WAN -- West Pacific

[StormingB81]

I am in Okinawa. All these storms turn and I think even if it where to turn back this way it would hit us. but yet they have minds of there own so who knows.

[CrazyC83]

I am in Okinawa. All these storms turn and I think even if it where to turn back this way it would hit us. but yet they have minds of there own so who knows.

Yeah, hopefully it would be a lot weaker than the strong Category 4 it is now!

[StormingB81]

Ive been here bfore to where the do a 90 degree turn and nail you so I shouldn't say that just yet huh

[dowdavek]

In Guam we've seen a few showers with a little wind but not much. In fact, yesterday it was completly sunny untill about 6 in the afternoon. Looks like we dodged the bullet this time.

[Cookie]

I am in Okinawa. All these storms turn and I think even if it where to turn back this way it would hit us. but yet they have minds of there own so who knows.

you where begging for this no more then a few weeks ago, really wanting a big typhoon to head you're way, be careful what you wish for mate.

[JTE50]

Too bad the Typhoon Chasers are no longer stationed at Anderson AFB. We could get a pressure reading as this baby is likely a supertyphoon now.

[CrazyC83]

It's not perfectly symmetrical though, so I'd put it at 125 kt, a bit below super typhoon status.

[StormingB81]

I said I wanted one..lol But maybe not a cat 5 Super typhoon with 160 mph winds. that may be a bit much. See though like you said watch what you wish for it may just come true

[cycloneye]

NRL is at 125 kts.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

[HURAKAN]

POWER, BABY, POWER

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 17.1N 146.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 146.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 18.2N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.3N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.4N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.9N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 24.9N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 27.8N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 31.8N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 146.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (CHOI-WAN),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 16W (KOPPU)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

It looks like it will be the first system in 2009 on that basin that may reach super-typhoon status.

[StormingB81]

It seems like they are contadicting themselves. Saying it will turn north then north east but the saying it may not turn at all and go west.

[RattleMan]

Strongest and most intense WPAC storm this year:

WTPQ20 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 17.1N 146.6E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 280NM EAST 220NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 18.6N 144.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 170000UTC 20.2N 141.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 180000UTC 22.1N 138.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

If it can meet JMA's 24h forecast it will tie Hamish AUS for most intense storm worldwide.

EDIT: Clarified

[cycloneye]

To be a Super-Typhoon,what intensity it has to be?

[CrazyC83]

Super typhoon = 130 kt by JTWC (it is an unofficial classification though).

15/0230 UTC 17.4N 146.2E T6.5/6.5 CHOI-WAN -- West Pacific

[StormingB81]

Watch this storm turn west and go under that cold front and not turn northwest to north at all and go on a different track. wouldn't that start making hearts beat a little faster.

[P.K.]

To be a Super-Typhoon,what intensity it has to be?

Or 51m/s from the CMA, again this is unofficial. They've got it up to 55m/s now.