Latest JMA forecast will be out shortly but for comparison here is the latest CMA advisory just released.
WTPQ20 BABJ 011800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY MELOR 0918 (0918) INITIAL TIME 011800 UTC
00HR 14.1N 151.4E 950HPA 45M/S
30KTS 280KM
50KTS 120KM
P12HR WNW 15KM/H
P+24HR 16.0N 148.3E 940HPA 50M/S
P+48HR 17.2N 143.2E 925HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 18.6N 138.4E 925HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 21.4N 133.7E 910HPA 60M/S=
WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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P.K.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
HURAKAN wrote:
Your friend needs to pay close attention to Melor
Thank you so much for replying (still panicking like mad here eeeps)- I shall definitely warn her then, I’m not even sure she knows about it yet. Do you think there is any chance of it decreasing in intensity before it reaches Japan?
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HURAKAN
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
nimrodel wrote:Thank you so much for replying (still panicking like mad here eeeps)- I shall definitely warn her then, I’m not even sure she knows about it yet. Do you think there is any chance of it decreasing in intensity before it reaches Japan?
All forecasts are imperfect and as we move farther into the future, they tend to have more errors. Yes, it's possible or likely that the storm will weaken before reaching Japan and it's also possible that it could turn northeast before reaching Japan. Still, the most important information that your friend needs to know is that this typhoon presents a significant danger to Japan and they need to keep a close eye on it. Lets hope it turns east before reaching Japan.
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P.K.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
WTPQ22 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 14.0N 151.4E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 15.2N 148.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 031800UTC 16.7N 145.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 041800UTC 18.6N 139.9E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 14.0N 151.4E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 15.2N 148.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 031800UTC 16.7N 145.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 041800UTC 18.6N 139.9E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
000
WTPQ34 PGUM 011906
TCPPQ4
BULLETIN
TYPHOON MELOR (20W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
5 AM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009
...TYPHOON MELOR CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT NEARS THE MARIANAS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR GUAM.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
RESIDENTS OF GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE.
AT 400 AM CHST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.4 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 385 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
390 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
415 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
450 MILES EAST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON MELOR HAS WOBBLED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
MELOR IS EXPECTED TO RESUME MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 180 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 400 AM CHST POSITION...14.1 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
AND 151.4 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...WOBBLING SOUTHWEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM CHST FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 11 AM.
$$
STANKO
WTPQ34 PGUM 011906
TCPPQ4
BULLETIN
TYPHOON MELOR (20W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
5 AM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009
...TYPHOON MELOR CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT NEARS THE MARIANAS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR GUAM.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
RESIDENTS OF GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE.
AT 400 AM CHST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.4 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 385 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
390 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
415 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
450 MILES EAST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON MELOR HAS WOBBLED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
MELOR IS EXPECTED TO RESUME MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 180 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 400 AM CHST POSITION...14.1 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
AND 151.4 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...WOBBLING SOUTHWEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM CHST FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 11 AM.
$$
STANKO
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
i have no idea what any of this weather talk means, but my main concern after reading the NWS update at 5am that the storm has "wobbled" southwest, what is the likelyhood of this to continue and what may be expected in guam... is there a possibility that it can still turn towards guam and rumble past as a super typhoon? Im supposed to be leaving island in a matter of days now.. and i dont want anything to get in the way of that... let me know your thoughts on my question. thanks!
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HURAKAN
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WTPN34 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 151.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 151.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 14.7N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 15.2N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.9N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.7N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.1N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.1N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 26.0N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 151.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST OF
SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 20W HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AND
MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHILE CONVECTIVE
FEEDER BANDS HAVE EXPANDED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TYPHOON MELOR IS JUST TO THE WEST OF
A DIVERGENT POINT SOURCE IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
MORE POLEWARD ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS
AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW TY 20W
TO BEGIN RECURVING TOWARDS THE NORTH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z,
021500Z AND 022100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 151.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 151.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 14.7N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 15.2N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.9N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.7N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.1N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.1N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 26.0N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 151.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST OF
SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 20W HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AND
MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHILE CONVECTIVE
FEEDER BANDS HAVE EXPANDED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TYPHOON MELOR IS JUST TO THE WEST OF
A DIVERGENT POINT SOURCE IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
MORE POLEWARD ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS
AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW TY 20W
TO BEGIN RECURVING TOWARDS THE NORTH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z,
021500Z AND 022100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139763
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re:
JTE50 wrote:I'm on Saipan now. This is as close as one can get without using a boat to jump to an Island north and that would be a long and bumpy ride for sure. Will get some pressure and wind data during the storm. CPA about 3pm Saturday local time.
The latest forecast track at 2100z warning has the eye passing closer than the 1500z warning just north of Saipan by 47 miles.It has jogged westward in the past few hours.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
Thanks Cyclone eye, appreciated the updates. Internet is so so here on Saipan. It comes and goes and really helps to go right to this forum for quick info on the track. I'll try and post some pics shortly of the island.
Last edited by JTE50 on Thu Oct 01, 2009 5:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek Ortt
JTWC's forecast is not even close to reality. They have a historic high bias on tracks toward japan. This almost certainly will not be 145KT 1min as it nears Japan. 85KT is more reasonable. For their forecast to verify, we have to assume that the trough that will turn the storm to the north will not impart any shear
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
HURAKAN wrote:All forecasts are imperfect and as we move farther into the future, they tend to have more errors. Yes, it's possible or likely that the storm will weaken before reaching Japan and it's also possible that it could turn northeast before reaching Japan. Still, the most important information that your friend needs to know is that this typhoon presents a significant danger to Japan and they need to keep a close eye on it. Lets hope it turns east before reaching Japan.
Thank you again soo much for replying. I hope that it tracks east but its not looking likely is it? Eeep! I just hope it weakens and doesn't make landfall.
jones7954 wrote:i have no idea what any of this weather talk means, but my main concern after reading the NWS update at 5am that the storm has "wobbled" southwest, what is the likelyhood of this to continue and what may be expected in guam... is there a possibility that it can still turn towards guam and rumble past as a super typhoon? Im supposed to be leaving island in a matter of days now.. and i dont want anything to get in the way of that... let me know your thoughts on my question. thanks!
I'm the same as you with the weather talk, but I think I'm slowly grasping wee bits. I don't know whether this'll be any help to you or how accurate it'll be but I just recieved a Storm Alert from TSR:
Storm Alert issued at 1 Oct, 2009 18:00 GMT
Typhoon MELOR is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Northern Mariana Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Guam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Hagatna (13.5 N, 144.8 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours
Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 120 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139763
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
WTPQ34 PGUM 012209
TCPPQ4
[b]Typhoon Warning for Saipan and Tinian,Tropical Storm Warning for Guam
BULLETIN
TYPHOON MELOR (20W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
8 AM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009
...TYPHOON MELOR INTENSIFYING EAST OF THE MARIANAS...
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ROTA.
A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS GREATER
THAN 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THAT
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
RESIDENTS OF GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.1 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 365 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
370 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
395 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
430 MILES EAST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING WEST AT 6 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 700 AM CHST POSITION...14.2 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
AND 151.1 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING SLOWLY WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 AM THIS MORNING CHST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 2 PM.
$$
WILLIAMS/MUNDELL
TCPPQ4
[b]Typhoon Warning for Saipan and Tinian,Tropical Storm Warning for Guam
BULLETIN
TYPHOON MELOR (20W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
8 AM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009
...TYPHOON MELOR INTENSIFYING EAST OF THE MARIANAS...
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ROTA.
A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS GREATER
THAN 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THAT
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
RESIDENTS OF GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.1 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 365 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
370 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
395 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
430 MILES EAST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING WEST AT 6 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 700 AM CHST POSITION...14.2 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
AND 151.1 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING SLOWLY WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 AM THIS MORNING CHST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 2 PM.
$$
WILLIAMS/MUNDELL
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
Inching closer to Mariana islands.
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
NWS of GUAM Local Statement
WTPQ84 PGUM 012338
HLSPQ4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON MELOR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
938 AM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009
...TYPHOON MELOR INTENSIFYING EAST OF THE MARIANAS...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ROTA AND AGRIHAN.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.4 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 365 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN...370 MILES EAST OF TINIAN...
395 MILES EAST OF ROTA...430 MILES EAST OF GUAM AND 480 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN.
TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING WEST AT 6 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
MELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
MARIANAS. MELOR IS A LARGE AND DANGEROUS SYSTEM. THE RADIUS OF
DAMAGING WINDS ALREADY EXTENDS FAR FROM THE CENTER. THE ONSET OF
DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING ON GUAM.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR PROTECTION OF LIFE
AND PROPERTY. MARINE INTERESTS NEED TO COMPLETE PREPARATIONS
ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR
CRAFT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED. CLOSELY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL
STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 3 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-021200-
/X.UPG.PGUM.TR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/X.NEW.PGUM.TY.W.0001.091001T2338Z-000000T0000Z/
/X.UPG.PGUM.TY.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
938 AM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009
...TYPHOON WARNING IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A TYPHOON WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS
TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF MORE THAN 73 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TINIAN AND SAIPAN REMAIN IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED
TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TONIGHT. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR
OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A TIN-ROOF HOME...
PLAN TO LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD
SECURE THEIR CRAFT.
&&
...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON MELOR MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE
WINDWARD COASTS. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 16 TO 20 FEET ON ALL EXPOSURES
IS POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN VILLAGES AS
OVERFLOW FROM LAKE SUSUPE COMBINES WITH THE STORM SURGE. FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED.
$$
GUZ002-PMZ152-021200-
/X.CON.PGUM.TR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/X.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
938 AM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A TYPHOON WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THAT
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
ROTA REMAINS IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS LATE TONIGHT. SECURE LOOSE
OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A TIN-
ROOF HOME...PLAN TO LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. BOAT
OWNERS SHOULD SECURE THEIR CRAFT.
&&
...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON MELOR MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS WILL INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE
ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST EXPOSURES. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 13 TO 17 FEET
IS POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
$$
GUZ001-PMZ151-021200-
/X.UPG.PGUM.TR.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/X.EXA.PGUM.TR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-
938 AM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARE NOW FOR THE ONSET OF DAMAGING WINDS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR
OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A TIN-ROOF
HOME...YOU MAY NEED TO LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. BOAT
OWNERS SHOULD SECURE THEIR CRAFT. STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON MELOR MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
WILL INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE AND HAZARDOUS SURF OF
10 TO 13 FEET IS POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.
$$
MUNDELL
WTPQ84 PGUM 012338
HLSPQ4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON MELOR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
938 AM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009
...TYPHOON MELOR INTENSIFYING EAST OF THE MARIANAS...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ROTA AND AGRIHAN.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.4 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 365 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN...370 MILES EAST OF TINIAN...
395 MILES EAST OF ROTA...430 MILES EAST OF GUAM AND 480 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN.
TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING WEST AT 6 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
MELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
MARIANAS. MELOR IS A LARGE AND DANGEROUS SYSTEM. THE RADIUS OF
DAMAGING WINDS ALREADY EXTENDS FAR FROM THE CENTER. THE ONSET OF
DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING ON GUAM.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR PROTECTION OF LIFE
AND PROPERTY. MARINE INTERESTS NEED TO COMPLETE PREPARATIONS
ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR
CRAFT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED. CLOSELY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL
STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 3 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-021200-
/X.UPG.PGUM.TR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/X.NEW.PGUM.TY.W.0001.091001T2338Z-000000T0000Z/
/X.UPG.PGUM.TY.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
938 AM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009
...TYPHOON WARNING IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A TYPHOON WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS
TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF MORE THAN 73 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TINIAN AND SAIPAN REMAIN IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED
TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TONIGHT. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR
OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A TIN-ROOF HOME...
PLAN TO LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD
SECURE THEIR CRAFT.
&&
...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON MELOR MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE
WINDWARD COASTS. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 16 TO 20 FEET ON ALL EXPOSURES
IS POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN VILLAGES AS
OVERFLOW FROM LAKE SUSUPE COMBINES WITH THE STORM SURGE. FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED.
$$
GUZ002-PMZ152-021200-
/X.CON.PGUM.TR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/X.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
938 AM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A TYPHOON WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THAT
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
ROTA REMAINS IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS LATE TONIGHT. SECURE LOOSE
OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A TIN-
ROOF HOME...PLAN TO LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. BOAT
OWNERS SHOULD SECURE THEIR CRAFT.
&&
...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON MELOR MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS WILL INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE
ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST EXPOSURES. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 13 TO 17 FEET
IS POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
$$
GUZ001-PMZ151-021200-
/X.UPG.PGUM.TR.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/X.EXA.PGUM.TR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-
938 AM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARE NOW FOR THE ONSET OF DAMAGING WINDS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR
OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A TIN-ROOF
HOME...YOU MAY NEED TO LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. BOAT
OWNERS SHOULD SECURE THEIR CRAFT. STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON MELOR MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
WILL INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE AND HAZARDOUS SURF OF
10 TO 13 FEET IS POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.
$$
MUNDELL
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StormingB81
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HURAKAN
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ZCZC 936
WTPQ22 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 14.1N 151.3E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 022100UTC 15.0N 148.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 031800UTC 16.7N 145.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 041800UTC 18.6N 139.9E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =
NNNN
WTPQ22 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 14.1N 151.3E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 022100UTC 15.0N 148.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 031800UTC 16.7N 145.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 041800UTC 18.6N 139.9E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =
NNNN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139763
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
BULLETIN
TYPHOON MELOR (20W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
11 AM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009
...TYPHOON MELOR MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MARIANAS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA AND
AGRIHAN.
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND AGRIHAN.
A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS GREATER
THAN 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THAT
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
RESIDENTS OF GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE.
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.0 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 360 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
365 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
390 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
420 MILES EAST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING WEST AT 6 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 135 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CHST POSITION...14.2 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
AND 151.0 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING SLOWLY WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 135 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM.
$$
WILLIAMS/EDSON
TYPHOON MELOR (20W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
11 AM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009
...TYPHOON MELOR MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MARIANAS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA AND
AGRIHAN.
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND AGRIHAN.
A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS GREATER
THAN 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THAT
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
RESIDENTS OF GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE.
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.0 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 360 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
365 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
390 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
420 MILES EAST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING WEST AT 6 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 135 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CHST POSITION...14.2 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
AND 151.0 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING SLOWLY WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 135 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM.
$$
WILLIAMS/EDSON
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