ATL : INVEST 94L

[wxman57]

No models run on 94 since 12Z. Doesn't really appear to qualify for an invest at this time. It's days away from any real chance of development, and the vorticity center appears to be inland over coastal Nicaragua tonight. I'm starting to feel a bit better about this system, meaning a decreasing chance of development.

Just taking a look at the models, it seems the genesis of this system will take place just west of Jamaica, not Central America. I would have the opposite feeling, now that the GFS has latched onto development. Still plenty of time to see though.

That's the wacky 18Z GFS. Wait for the 00Z. Don't trust the 06Z or 18Z GFS runs. And look at the date on that 324hr run - Nov. 3. Almost 2 weeks sitting in the NW Caribbean?

[cycloneye]

The NW Caribbean sea continues to be like a bathtube.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

Still Quasi-Stationary.

AL, 94, 2009102100, , BEST, 0, 125N, 823W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[lonelymike]

To be fair, this far out. Whatever the models are showing now (including tonight's run) are going to change. Storms have hit the Panhandle, even in November. Depends on the set-up. However, I would stick with climo right now, given that we are still looking at the long range and models are flip flopping. Either way, the 2009 season may not go gently into that goodnight

Hey there's still hope you can still chain yourself to the bar at the Floribama and realize your dream! The Dream still lives!!

[gatorcane]

When I look at the 18Z GFS, I can't see how it can move 94L into the GOM. It agrees with the ECMWF on a slow N to NNE movement of 94L then a bend to the NW in the NW Caribbean sea somewhere just south of Western Cuba....then you can see the large trough that is swinging trough the CONUS around the time the GFS has 94L near the Western tip of Cuba. That certainly would shunt 94L off to the NE you would think....and not to the WNW into the GOM:

[cycloneye]

Is the possible scenario the european model is showing the scenario that could threaten West Central Florida?

Its very early to know as this will be a slow proccess.It may be until next weekend that a more clear picture may emerge on a track but the system has to develop first.Keep comming to this forum as you will be informed about the latest about what is going on with this system.

[Dean4Storms]

When I look at the 18Z GFS, I can't see how it can move 94L into the GOM. It agrees with the ECMWF on a slow N to NNE movement of 94L then a bend to the NW in the NW Caribbean sea somewhere just south of Western Cuba....then you can see the large trough that is swinging trough the CONUS around the time the GFS has 94L near the Western tip of Cuba. That certainly would shunt 94L off to the NE you would think....and not to the WNW into the GOM:

Only thing there that would give it credence would be that it is just south enough to not feel the trough with that blocking high out in the Atlantic. But like you, I think this looks VERY suspect, so much could change and like everyone is saying we need to see what the 00z run does.

[gatorcane]

When I look at the short-wave IR loop tonight, I can clearly see the broad area of cyclonic turning in the SW Caribbean:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html

Looking at CIMSS shear data, there is an anti-cyclone positioned very near the "center" of the broad area of low pressure. You can also see the high clouds "fanning" out around the broad area of low pressure looking at the IR loop, suggestive of the nice upper-level support it does have at the moment. The main problem for it right now is proximity to land. Also, there is no real consolidated surface center yet.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[cycloneye]

If this turns into a Tropical Cyclone,will it take a track like Irene did in 1999? Dont get me wrong as I am not suggesting it will be a hurricane like Irene,only talking about the track.

[wyq614]

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... s/presion/

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that MM5-Cuba moves it NNE in 3 days and deepen it a little.

PS: to cycloneye: I'm not in Cuba now I have returned to China in the month of June. But I have 4 classmate who will arrive in Cuba to study Spanish on October 22nd

[attallaman]

Is this the system Carl Parker on TWC was talking about yesterday? Something might develop near central America and could move towards Florida? Or is this something else?

[wyq614]

00z ECWMF eliminated the system?!

[weatherwindow]

If this turns into a Tropical Cyclone,will it take a track like Irene did in 1999? Dont get me wrong as I am not suggesting it will be a hurricane like Irene,only talking about the track.

luis...tend to agree....particularly if the euro original northward drift type track verifies...however, it would really have to thread the needle to avoid recurve south of the florida straits...just an aside, IMHO, its chances of reaching fla would depend on it reaching at least 19degN prior to the approach of a fairly sharp trough..which would tend to bring the cyclone north of cuba before recurvature instead of the michelle(2001) scenario.....rich

[xironman]

00z ECWMF eliminated the system?!

Nah, it is southwest of Tampa on Tuesday

[wxman57]

00z ECWMF eliminated the system?!

Nah, it is southwest of Tampa on Tuesday
http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/1650/w ... lpnorj.gif

That ECMWF image you posted is from Monday evening. Last night's ECMWF shows no development, neither does the Canadian. GFS develops a low then dissipates it. Models definitely trending away from development. Still something to watch, but I think that development chances may be dropping.

[xironman]

00z ECWMF eliminated the system?!

Nah, it is southwest of Tampa on Tuesday
http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/1650/w ... lpnorj.gif

That ECMWF image you posted is from Monday evening. Last night's ECMWF shows no development, neither does the Canadian. GFS develops a low then dissipates it. Models definitely trending away from development. Still something to watch, but I think that development chances may be dropping.

Oops your right, I had a computer failure and my new bookmark was stuck on Monday, my bad.

[wxman57]

Convection still disorganized this morning, and models are backing away from development. Euro and Canadian show nothing. GFS develops a low but kills it off in the NW Caribbean as another front moves into the area. Vorticity center is right on the coast of Nicaragua now. No NHC model runs since 12Z yesterday. Development chances diminishing. Still should keep an eye on the region, but we may just escape any development.

[CourierPR]

Has 94L been deactivated? it no longer shows on the map.

[cycloneye]

Has 94L been deactivated? it no longer shows on the map.

No,is still at the Navy site.This automated graphic sometimes doesnt work properly.

[Blown Away]

The TPC has 94L's low very close to shore for the next 24 hours then moves the low NNE or ENE into the South Central Caribbean in 72 hours. Convection building this morning, still disorganized.