ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[carolina_73]

Sure seems like it's wobbling more to the E in last few frames. I believe the 18z GFDL showed this.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track mantains as TD.

AL, 11, 2009110700, , BEST, 0, 159N, 839W, 30, 1006, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[Aric Dunn]

1006mb hr ago... the surface obs are out of sync with sat image by a little bit.. but extrapolating to the center from the surface ob on the coast there.. some where around 1004 mb

[cycloneye]

Just shy of Tropical Storm numbers.

06/2345 UTC 16.3N 84.2W T2.0/2.0 IDA -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Dean4Storms]

This looks more like a timing issue for the upper Gulf Coast, with Ida moving faster north it would make sense that it gains higher latitude before the trough turned it. Let's hope she slows down or the front speeds up or both. Regardless once she passes into the Gulf I would think the shear degrades her greatly and at worst we are dealing with a TS or Sub TS!

[Aric Dunn]

There she goes.. pretty big explosion firing right over the center..

[Dean4Storms]

From what I understand it is a Upper Level Trough moving across TX and into the western Gulf on Sunday that develops the height falls and eventually the low pressure develops over the western Gulf on Sunday. This feature is what most of the models join together with Ida over the central Gulf.

[ozonepete]

The satellite images show virtually no shear effects on the main cluster of thunderstorms. If this continues, it will easily make cat 2, and if the shear keeps retreating, as the GFS suggests, it could easily go higher. There is VERY high OHC ahead of it.

[expat2carib]

I'm still seeing a kaboom pretty soon in shape and behavior. Storm has gone from strength in outer bands to inner CDO in little time.

I'm seeing a "kaboom" right now.

[MGC]

Looks like convection is starting to pop....so, it appears Ida is starting to wrap back up. Could be a TS again sometime tonight. I see little shear over Ida and shear does not appear to be a factor until Ida reaches the southern GOM. Chances are improving that Ida could regain hurricane intensity as it nears the Yucatan Channel.......MGC

[CourierPR]

Looks like convection is starting to pop....so, it appears Ida is starting to wrap back up. Could be a TS again sometime tonight. I see little shear over Ida and shear does not appear to be a factor until Ida reaches the southern GOM. Chances are improving that Ida could regain hurricane intensity as it nears the Yucatan Channel.......MGC

... or as it nears western Cuba.

[ericinmia]

Ida is looking pretty good, and it appears that Invest 96E in the EPAC is being pulled north by the Low in the BOC and also Ida...

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

[jinftl]

As has been the case all season...the tropical cyclone heat potential (tchp) is extremely high....still...in this most volatile region for rapid development

[jlauderdal]

Looks like convection is starting to pop....so, it appears Ida is starting to wrap back up. Could be a TS again sometime tonight. I see little shear over Ida and shear does not appear to be a factor until Ida reaches the southern GOM. Chances are improving that Ida could regain hurricane intensity as it nears the Yucatan Channel.......MGC

time for a code red on hurricane chances for this thing, its done everything and more to make a run at its pre-landfall intensity, there is going to be boatload of energy in the gulf and surrounding region next week with ida and a healthy trough coming together

[Dean4Storms]

I would bet within that convection winds have already reached sustained TS speeds. Winds always are higher over water and if it was TD strength winds (35mph) over land it should easily be 40mph over water by now. Bet it gets upgraded again soon!

[AJC3]

I respectfully disagree with the posts which state "no shear" over Ida. it's pretty clear to see in both IR and Watervaopr imagery that there is indeed a modest to moderate amount of southerly shear pushing across the top of the system. Derived watervapor winds show southerly flow of about 15 knots over Honduras/Nicaragua punching into the system, and the shear increases steadily with latitude to where SW winds of 25-35 knots are over the Yucatan Channel, and these increase to 35-45 knots over western Cuba. You can see that outflow to the south of the system is nil.

That having been said, the shear appears to be strongly divergent, which will vent the convection pretty nicely, and, coupled with the fact that the magnitude of shear is not prohibitive, this should allow Ida to intensify over the northwest Caribbean. But given the fact that shear is only going to get steadliy less conducive and eventually hostile from here on out, the potential for Ida to become much more than a strong TS to borderline Cat 1 hurricane is quite low. JMHO...

[ronjon]

Ida's developing a fairly large and now getting symmetrical CDO. I think we're starting to see the start of a deepening phase aided by the extremely high TCHP plus divergence aloft.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Aric Dunn]

I respectfully disagree with the posts which state "no shear" over Ida. it's pretty clear to see in both IR and Watervaopr imagery that there is indeed a modest to moderate amount of southerly shear pushing across the top of the system. Derived watervapor winds show southerly flow of about 15 knots over Honduras/Nicaragua punching into the system, and the shear increases steadily with latitude to where SW winds of 25-35 knots are over the Yucatan Channel, and these increase to 35-45 knots over western Cuba. You can see that outflow to the south of the system is nil.

That having been said, the shear appears to be strongly divergent, which will vent the convection pretty nicely, and, coupled with the fact that the magnitude of shear is not prohibitive, this should allow Ida to intensify over the northwest Caribbean. But given the fact that shear is only going to get steadliy less conducive and eventually hostile from here on out, the potential for Ida to become much more than a strong TS to borderline Cat 1 hurricane is quite low. JMHO...

I agree with you as i have mentioned the highly divergent flow. however after 60 to 72 hours most models develop a improving upper environment not great but still highly divergent... I would not go as far to say that for sure it will become less conducive as most guidance does not say that.. either way i still dont see much more than minimal hurricane at best.. at least right now anyway.. something similar to Irene in 1999

[jinftl]

A comparison not to be underestimated in impact....Irene did about $1 billion (in 2009 adjusted $) in damage in florida and killed 15 (direct + indirect fatalities).

I respectfully disagree with the posts which state "no shear" over Ida. it's pretty clear to see in both IR and Watervaopr imagery that there is indeed a modest to moderate amount of southerly shear pushing across the top of the system. Derived watervapor winds show southerly flow of about 15 knots over Honduras/Nicaragua punching into the system, and the shear increases steadily with latitude to where SW winds of 25-35 knots are over the Yucatan Channel, and these increase to 35-45 knots over western Cuba. You can see that outflow to the south of the system is nil.

That having been said, the shear appears to be strongly divergent, which will vent the convection pretty nicely, and, coupled with the fact that the magnitude of shear is not prohibitive, this should allow Ida to intensify over the northwest Caribbean. But given the fact that shear is only going to get steadliy less conducive and eventually hostile from here on out, the potential for Ida to become much more than a strong TS to borderline Cat 1 hurricane is quite low. JMHO...

I agree with you as i have mentioned the highly divergent flow. however after 60 to 72 hours most models develop a improving upper environment not great but still highly divergent... I would not go as far to say that for sure it will become less conducive as most guidance does not say that.. either way i still dont see much more than minimal hurricane at best.. at least right now anyway.. something similar to Irene in 1999