ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[KWT]

Center has formed north just like the models have progged, so thats a good call from them.

Reminds me very much of pre-Fay indeed as it did the exact same sort of thing in this location. I suspect this one will get to about 21-22N then bend back west, thats what the trend has been rceently. Whilst I'm not sure how long the W/WNW track will last I think it'll get close enough to cause a sweat.

Of course the shear is hefty to its northwest so ts not impossible this gets sheared to death as well...

[bob rulz]

I'll admit, I would be surprised if this isn't upgraded at 5. I know they probably want to see if the convection will hold, and also wait for visibles, but that is probably the best non-TD I've ever seen if they don't upgrade it. Its structure is nearly perfect.

Also, as for all of the people saying there is no chance for an EC threat, just get off it already. There is no certainty in this one like there was with Bill...it could still easily miss the trough and turn west towards the CONUS. It's simply too early to make this prediction. Yes, at the moment, it doesn't look likely, but there's no reason to lull anybody along the EC or even the GoM into a false sense of security.

There may not be any threat to the CONUS this season the way things are going.
We are about to hit Sept. and the peak. We all know the fronts just get stronger
and stronger as we get closer to Fall. It almost feels like some are just grasping at air and
hoping for something to threaten U.S. The Cape Verde season will be closing it's doors
before you know it.

Yea Im not sure this will be the biggest threat to the CONUS this season... seems to me this is already lifting up N a little quicker then before.

Doesn't matter.. ridge will build in next week and send this west

Yes, the troughs get stronger and stronger as the season goes on.

The storms also form further and further west. Late September/October Cape Verde storms are not generally a threat to the CONUS, but Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean storms are a huge threat.

There is no way to say with any amount of certainty that this will be the biggest CONUS threat this season and I wish people wouldn't make such predictions. It's not even September yet guys!

[jconsor]

The consistency of the UKMET and ECMWF on a continued WNW motion for the next 6 days, and on building a strong upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic late this week into the weekend, should give pause to anyone who is confident on a northward recurve and a track near Bermuda. Yes, neither model shows much development, but the ECMWF has trended toward a somewhat more organized system - it now has a closed low at the surface just NE of the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday evening.

If 94L can emerge in the Bahamas or eastern Gulf of Mexico on the other side of the TUTT low, chances for development increase substantially.

[KWT]

What I will say is some models are building in the high more then others. Whats interesting is the GFS/CMC both have overdone upper troughing this summer so far on the means, so its quite possible that the ECM idea could be a right one, though I'm willing to bet this is more of a Carilina threat then a Florida threat but its very hard to say.

Right now recurving is still more likely but we shall see.

jconsor, even the HWRF which has been far right of all the other models has this moving WNW for a while.

[Cyclenall]

This system reminds me of Tropical Depression 10 from 2005. When I looked at the "Major storms that have humble beginnings" thread, I looked at TD10 again and it's current set-up, conditions, and predicted future look similar. I'm not expecting too much out of this but just throwing an ob out there.

[KWT]

I'm not expecting much for a little while but this is one well worth watching further down the line. May not do a lot in the near future due to the shear but anything that is getting close to the US needs watching.

[jconsor]

I have little doubt this will be declared a TD by this afternoon *if* the strong convection persists. Given the history of 94L to produce strong nighttime convection bursts and then have convection die during the day, that is certainly not assured.

[KWT]

Yep, it'll be interesting to see if the convection can hold for a while or not. I think if it does hold for another 6-12hrs then I agree this likely will be a depression but we shall see.

[I-wall]

This thing is looking good tonight. Sure looks like a TD to me.

[bob rulz]

Well, it wasn't upgraded at 5, I'm sure they're waiting for visibles. I wouldn't be surprised to see a special advisory update it to a TD by 8 if the convection holds that long.

[KWT]

Possibly though if they do upgrade it'll probably be at 11am I'd have thought as others have mentioned.
Reminds me a lot of pre-Fay however, which looked like a TD only to weaken again roughly at this location.

[bob rulz]

Possibly though if they do upgrade it'll probably be at 11am I'd have thought as others have mentioned.
Reminds me a lot of pre-Fay however, which looked like a TD only to weaken again roughly at this location.

More than likely they will wait until 11, I was just mentioning that I wouldn't be surprised if a special advisory is declared. It's got a very solid, circular mass of convection over the center and, to put it simply, a stunningly beautiful structure. It could weaken within the next few hours of course, but disturbances that look this nice just before official declaration usually don't fall apart that quickly.

[Nimbus]

Convection was strongest same time yesterday morning. This morning looks as though the LLC was on the south side of the convection burst but that may help with the NW motion. A track that leaves all the islands on the weak side of the storm is obviously a good thing short term. The ULL to the north is providing good outflow for now and the trough further west is not close enough to cause any shear problems. The convection should be more persistent today so the NHC will likely upgrade.

The long range steering forecast gets more accurate as time goes on. Once Erica gets north of Hispaniola, I'm not sure whether there will be a strong blocking ridge in place north of her or an approaching trough over the southeast CONUS?

[stormchazer]

I looked at the NHC loop and then read above and thought you were nuts. I did not see any convection. Then I went to some alternate sites which were updated and now I get the correct picture.

The NHC maybe waiting to see if it persist as mentioned above. 94L has increased in converction only to wind down and I think they want to make sure this is a more permanent improvement.

[carolina_73]

Convection still looking good.

[HURAKAN]

Looking like a TD this morning.

[carolina_73]

sure does.

[Gustywind]

Latest from Meteo-France 6 am:
Looking good this morning...

[Gustywind]

Interresting discussion from San Juan Pr
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310830
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST MON AUG 31 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST
AND SETTLE OVR HISPANIOLA BY TONIGHT. UPPER LVL RIDGE OVR THE TROP
ATLC WILL BUILD WWD INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH WED AND
MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENT PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG 50W THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE
WNW OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THU NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW TUTT LOW DRIFTING TO WEST SOUTHWEST WITH
SUBSIDENCE INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY. HAVE TRENDED
POPS DOWNWARD FOR TODAY BUT STILL ANTICIPATING ISOLD/SCT STRONG
CONVECTION OVR WRN PR THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE/DRYING INCREASES
ON TUE AND HOLDS THROUGH WED AS MID-UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS FROM
THE EAST FURTHER LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES. SFC WINDS TURN MORE TO
THE NORTHEAST SO HAVE LIMIT POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF PR.

FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH FRI IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
TRACK/EVOLUTION ON BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG 50W THIS MORNING.
HAVE FOLLOWED THE 00Z ECMWF CLOSELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT/RELIABLE MODEL THIS YEAR AND ALSO WITH
THIS SYSTEM TAKING IT ACROSS THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF PR/USVI OVER
THE PAST FOUR DAYS AS A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE. NOGAPS AND CANADIAN
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM WHILE GFS/UKMET DO NOT. PER NHC
TWO PRODUCT...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...THE FIRST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER
THE ECLIPSE SHOW THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
CENTER. GIVEN THAT WE ARE ALMOST AT THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE
SEASON AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY FVRBL CONDITIONS I WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST A NAMED STORM AND NHC IS GIVING IT A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE REFER TO NHC PRODUCTS
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.

THERE IS A GREAT DEAL UNCERTAINTY HERE ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND INTENSITY ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS YESTERDAY. THE
EARLY TRACK NHC MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM ONLY TO ABOUT 61W BY FRI
EVENING WHILE THE 00Z ECWMF SHOWS THE SYSTEM ALMOST TO 70W BY THIS
TIME. THE ECMWF LOOKS MORE REASONABLE WHEN COMPARED TO
CLIMATOLOGY AS A SYSTEM THAT IS ALREADY AT 50W WOULD ONLY TAKE ON
AVERAGE A MAXIMUM OF FOUR DAYS TO GET TO THE LONGITUDE OF PR
MOVING AT THE CLIMO RATE OF SPEED OF 10 KNOTS BUT EVEN THE ECMWF
SHOWS THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN TOO WHEN IT REACHES 55W. HAVE
ADJUSTED GRIDS THU-FRI TO ADD MORE WX/POPS AND INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST TAF SITES XCPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH TSRA AT JMZ. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE PR/USVI THU-FRI.

&&

.MARINE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH WED. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AND THU NIGHT ESPECIALLY ATLC WATERS
AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. HAVE INCREASED SEAS TO 8 FT FOR NOW ACROSS
ATLC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 78 / 40 30 20 10
STT 86 80 86 80 / 40 30 20 10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$
64/64

[hurricanetrack]

Wow- I go to bed with a drying up mess out there and awake to this sweet treat.

Now it appears we have something to talk about this week. Here we go!