ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[cycloneye]

The next benchmark for the northern Leewards (Antigua,Barbuda,ST Marteen,ST Kitts,Nevis,ST Barts) is 16.0N-55.0W.If it passes south of that position,trouble,if it goes north of there safe bet of no direct hit.

[jlauderdal]

Looking like a TD this morning.

does it have a close llC? We saw a massive ULL low last week that looked like a runway model on IR but it didn't meet the criteria for classification.

[mpic]

I'll admit, I would be surprised if this isn't upgraded at 5. I know they probably want to see if the convection will hold, and also wait for visibles, but that is probably the best non-TD I've ever seen if they don't upgrade it. Its structure is nearly perfect.

Also, as for all of the people saying there is no chance for an EC threat, just get off it already. There is no certainty in this one like there was with Bill...it could still easily miss the trough and turn west towards the CONUS. It's simply too early to make this prediction. Yes, at the moment, it doesn't look likely, but there's no reason to lull anybody along the EC or even the GoM into a false sense of security.

Thank you! After last night's water spouts tore up Galveston Island last night, I don't think anybody here is going to get lulled into anything.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Gustywind]

Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 31, 2009 5:43 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

ATLANTIC

Shower and thunderstorm activity near an area of low pressure about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles decreased Sunday evening, and continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning. Upper level conditions are favorable for development of this system and it is possible that a tropical depression could form in the next day or two. It is moving to the west-northwest near 15 miles per hour. Interests in the Windward Islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.

Elsewhere it is quiet across the Atlantic Basin.

[ronjon]

Will 94L turn into another Frances?

[jinftl]

Tracks not as spread out....

[ronjon]

ECM has strong ridging forecast for the 8-10 period over the eastern US and western atlantic.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[O Town]

Looks like future Erika got her act together over night. This is about to get interesting.

[Aric Dunn]

IT seems we have two vorts in there. one at about 13.5N and 54W
the other around 15N and 52.5W

and it all seems to be pretty much west to wnw this morning after a light jog over night to the WNW ..

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

035
WHXX04 KWBC 311113
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 31

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.4 50.9 290./13.0

STORM DISSIPATED AT 0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[cycloneye]

035
WHXX04 KWBC 311113
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 31

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.4 50.9 290./13.0

STORM DISSIPATED AT 0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[HURAKAN]

I was thinking the same thing!!! GFDL appears to be in lalaland

[storms NC]

It looks like it could do a Floyd track only it should curve out to sea and not go inland. But ALL the Islands need to keep a eye open on this one.




RadarSatelliteCurrentsSevereForecastsClimateTropicalRivers
Active StormsArchiveDiscussionsMonthly SummaryTropical Maps

Hurricane Floyd (1999) Tropical:DepressionStormHurricane:Cat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5

Storm Summary
Hurricane Floyd (Category 5)
Year: 1999 Basin: Atlantic Max.Winds: 155 mph (135 kts) Min Pressure: 27.2 in (921 mb) Lifespan: Sep 08 - Sep 17

Floyd Track History
Advisory Date Name Position Moving Speed Pressure Winds
(UTC) Lat Lon mph (kts) in (mb) mph (kts)
39 0900 FRI SEP 17 Tropical Storm Floyd 43.5N 70.8W NE 26 (23) 29.06 (984) 58 (50)
38 0300 FRI SEP 17 Tropical Storm Floyd 41.7N 72.2W NE 35 (30) 28.94 (980) 58 (50)
36 1500 THU SEP 16 Hurricane Floyd 36.8N 76W N NE 24 (21) 28.56 (967) 81 (70)
35 0900 THU SEP 16 Hurricane Floyd 34.5N 77.6W N NE 23 (20) 28.23 (956) 104 (90)
33 2100 WED SEP 15 Hurricane Floyd 31.3N 79W N 17 (15) 28.02 (949) 115 (100)
32 1500 WED SEP 15 Hurricane Floyd 29.9N 79W N NW 14 (12) 27.85 (943) 127 (110)
31 0900 WED SEP 15 Hurricane Floyd 28.8N 78.8W N NW 14 (12) 27.7 (938) 138 (120)
30 0300 WED SEP 15 Hurricane Floyd 27.7N 77.9W NW 13 (11) 27.55 (933) 138 (120)
29 2100 TUE SEP 14 Hurricane Floyd 26.5N 77.4W NW 12 (10) 27.43 (929) 138 (120)
28 1500 TUE SEP 14 Hurricane Floyd 25.7N 76.8W W NW 14 (12) 27.52 (932) 144 (125)
27 0900 TUE SEP 14 Hurricane Floyd 25.1N 75.9W W NW 14 (12) 27.37 (927) 155 (135)
26 0300 TUE SEP 14 Hurricane Floyd 24.5N 74.7W W 14 (12) 27.29 (924) 155 (135)
25 2100 MON SEP 13 Hurricane Floyd 24.2N 73.7W W 16 (14) 27.26 (923) 155 (135)
24 1500 MON SEP 13 Hurricane Floyd 24.1N 72.1W W 14 (12) 27.2 (921) 155 (135)
23 0900 MON SEP 13 Hurricane Floyd 23.7N 70.6W W 14 (12) 27.23 (922) 155 (135)
22 0300 MON SEP 13 Hurricane Floyd 23.6N 69.3W W 14 (12) 27.49 (931) 144 (125)
21 2100 SUN SEP 12 Hurricane Floyd 23.4N 68.2W W 14 (12) 27.76 (940) 127 (110)
20 1500 SUN SEP 12 Hurricane Floyd 23N 66.6W W 12 (10) 28.2 (955) 121 (105)
19 0900 SUN SEP 12 Hurricane Floyd 22.8N 65.9W W 13 (11) 28.35 (960) 109 (95)
18 0300 SUN SEP 12 Hurricane Floyd 22.7N 64.5W W NW 12 (10) 28.56 (967) 109 (95)
17 2100 SAT SEP 11 Hurricane Floyd 22.7N 63.5W W NW 12 (10) 28.53 (966) 109 (95)
16 1500 SAT SEP 11 Hurricane Floyd 22.2N 62.4W NW 10 (9) 28.41 (962) 109 (95)
15 0900 SAT SEP 11 Hurricane Floyd 21.7N 61.6W NW 10 (9) 28.44 (963) 104 (90)
14 0300 SAT SEP 11 Hurricane Floyd 21.1N 60.8W NW 12 (10) 28.67 (971) 92 (80)
13 2100 FRI SEP 10 Hurricane Floyd 20.5N 60W NW 12 (10) 28.79 (975) 81 (70)
12 1500 FRI SEP 10 Hurricane Floyd 19.3N 59.2W W NW 10 (9) 29.21 (989) 81 (70)
11 0900 FRI SEP 10 Tropical Storm Floyd 18.9N 58.7W W NW 12 (10) 29.09 (985) 69 (60)
10 0300 FRI SEP 10 Tropical Storm Floyd 18.3N 57.7W W NW 10 (9) 29.38 (995) 69 (60)
9 2100 THU SEP 09 Tropical Storm Floyd 18.2N 56.9W W NW 15 (13) 29.41 (996) 69 (60)
8 1500 THU SEP 09 Tropical Storm Floyd 17.2N 55.5W W 14 (12) 29.62 (1003) 58 (50)
7 0900 THU SEP 09 Tropical Storm Floyd 17.3N 54.6W WNW 15 (13) 29.62 (1003) 58 (50)
6 0300 THU SEP 09 Tropical Storm Floyd 16.7N 53.6W W NW 16 (14) 29.53 (1000) 58 (50)
5 2100 WED SEP 08 Tropical Storm Floyd 16.6N 51.7W W NW 16 (14) 29.53 (1000) 52 (45)
4 1500 WED SEP 08 Tropical Storm Floyd 15.8N 50W W NW 15 (13) 29.62 (1003) 46 (40)
3 0900 WED SEP 08 Tropical Storm Floyd 15.6N 49.1W WNW 16 (14) 29.68 (1005) 40 (35)
2 0300 WED SEP 08 Tropical Depression Eight 15.2N 47.5W W NW 16 (14) 29.74 (1007) 35 (30)
< previous atlantic storm next atlantic storm

[HURAKAN]

TPC's thinking

[Blown Away]

IMO, looks like a TD or Erika. The TPC has shifted S w/ their track.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

What the heck makes every one so confident that this thing will in fact curve out to sea? Just because the last 2 systems curved out doesn't mean this one will. Every system has a different setup to work with and this far out the forecast is not a done deal!

[gatorcane]

Well the ECMWF has even more ridging across the Western Atlantic as some have mentioned. The trend can't be denied. It keeps building the Bermuda High even strong with each run.

That means this thing could move in the general direction of the SE Bahamas over the next week. Certainly this scenario will need to be watched closely by those in the Bahamas and FL. Future Erika has got my attention even more now.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9083100!!/

BTW -- interesting little feature approaching the Bahamas now........

[jlauderdal]

What the heck makes every one so confident that this thing will in fact curve out to sea? Just because the last 2 systems curved out doesn't mean this one will. Every system has a different setup to work with and this far out the forecast is not a done deal!

nobody with any degree of knowledge is confident of that