ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[NEXRAD]

Ivanhater - just to note for others reading the HPC QPF image you posted, the HPC's precipitation forecast only goes out to day 5. The QPF shown for the northern Gulf Coast is due to the incoming frontal boundary, potential non-tropical low, and moisture feed off of Ida or the storm's remnant. The rainfall totals shown are primarily indirect in terms of Ida.

- Jay
South Florida

[ozonepete]

Artist,

I think that the loop may be the TPC's best estimate for a storm track, though if this system does go extratropical in the Gulf, the "loop" might be moot as the forecasting would shift over to the HPC, more than likely. My best guess from seeing these type of systems over the past decade is that Ida ends up merging with the future frontal boundary and passes along a sharply curving northeast path. Don't quote that as a forecast, though.

Ozonepete,

I'd trade for somewhere the leaves have turned and where I could get some fresh apple cider! It's still too warm down here.

- Jay
South Florida

Ok, I admit I've been enjoying the cider and the leaves, but it's friggin' freezin' here tonight, yuugghh.

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater - just to note for others reading the HPC QPF image you posted, the HPC's precipitation forecast only goes out to day 5. The QPF shown for the northern Gulf Coast is due to the incoming frontal boundary, potential non-tropical low, and moisture feed off of Ida or the storm's remnant. The rainfall totals shown are primarily indirect in terms of Ida.

- Jay
South Florida

It depends on what solution you are leaning toward NEXRAD. I am leaning to to merging theory with the boc low, as wxman alluded to. With the models showing a lopsided system to the NW and merging with the western gulf low, HPC seems accurate with most of the weather along the northern gulf as the low tracks across the gulfcoast

[ozonepete]

So, do you guys think it is likely that Ida will become extra tropical as is currently forecast, or remain tropical through landfall?

I'm not sure there will be a landfall in the Gulf. That hook in the track at the end is when the cold front reaches it. The larger west-Gulf low on the front NW of Ida may well just absorb what's left of Ida as it tracks eastward along the Gulf coast. As the NHC is saying, it's a complex situation. There may be nothing left to make landfall in 5 days.

I agree with all you said. And so if absorbed, why a hook in the track at the end? I especially agree with that this is really complex.

[NEXRAD]

Ivanhater - just to note for others reading the HPC QPF image you posted, the HPC's precipitation forecast only goes out to day 5. The QPF shown for the northern Gulf Coast is due to the incoming frontal boundary, potential non-tropical low, and moisture feed off of Ida or the storm's remnant. The rainfall totals shown are primarily indirect in terms of Ida.

- Jay
South Florida

It depends on what solution you are leaning toward NEXRAD. I am leaning to to merging theory with the boc low, as wxman alluded to. With the models showing a lopsided system to the NW and merging with the western gulf low, HPC seems accurate with most of the weather along the northern gulf as the low tracks across the gulfcoast

Fair enough. The HPC still keeps whatever low is around south of the coast, though, from my last check of their products.

- Jay
South Florida

[Ivanhater]

Yeah NEXRAD, as most have been saying, this is a complex messy situation. What is it, 4 systems interacting? lol

[srainhoutx]

Yeah NEXRAD, as most have been saying, this is a complex messy situation. What is it, 4 systems interacting? lol

5, but who's counting right now.

[AtlanticWind]

The 00 gfs seems to be alittle faster getting Ida into the gulf

[NEXRAD]

It's almost as messy as the neuroscience-social interface psychology I research. There, though, we need to only deal with a few dozen interactions at best. Regardless of what transpires, it will be a very interesting situation to watch evolve. These scenarios where a tropical system is moving north out of the Caribbean are my favorite. They usually have all kinds of complex interactions with atmospheric and land features. Makes for a fun, if not head-slamming, forecast.

- Jay
South Florida

[NEXRAD]

Latest IRWV shows continued improved outflow north and northwest of Ida's center. There seems to be some hints at outer bands regenerating mainly northwest of the circulation.

- Jay
South Florida

[Ivanhater]

Big change in the 00Z gfs

[artist]

Artist,

I think that the loop may be the TPC's best estimate for a storm track, though if this system does go extratropical in the Gulf, the "loop" might be moot as the forecasting would shift over to the HPC, more than likely. My best guess from seeing these type of systems over the past decade is that Ida ends up merging with the future frontal boundary and passes along a sharply curving northeast path. Don't quote that as a forecast, though.

Ozonepete,

I'd trade for somewhere the leaves have turned and where I could get some fresh apple cider! It's still too warm down here.

- Jay
South Florida

yeah, it's been hot hasn't it? Though today it has been really pleasant for a change. Thanks Jay.

[AtlanticWind]

Yes , the new Gfs gets Ida into the NE gulf in just 72 hours.

[dixiebreeze]

[
Watch the solution end up being a lot more simple and direct
I agree, I would not be surprised to see Ida enter the GOM slow down as the front approaches and then begin to move NE ahead of the front. The further N Ida goes in the GOM the more shear she will encounter, but if Ida begins a NE turn in the southern GOM Ida could be in a more favorable upper air environment.[/quote]

One of the more probable outcomes I've read tonight.

[AtlanticWind]

At 102 hours drifts Ida back south maybe becoming extratropical

[gatorcane]

At 102 hours drifts Ida back south maybe becoming extratropical

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I still highly doubt anything would be left if it managed to reach the Panhandle of Florida with 60K-80K of shear that is setting up in the northern GOM. Some high clouds are possible, but the main rain event would come in from the BOC low, not Ida..Ida is history if she thinks she is going to make landfall in the Northern GOM as a true tropical system. SSTs don't even support it in the northern GOM as well. Looks like lows in the 40s tonight across areas of the northern GOM....

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

So it looks like a faster moving Ida is likely to get to the northern gulf coast before the front can get there to trun her to the NE. Feeling a little bit more relieved at that new model run. The loop made me nervous as we saw that on tv earlier while we are vacationing at Disney. I'm still feeling a bit creeped out about all this. To make it worse, we had a great "pin trade" find today. A cast member had a 2004 Disney Hurricane pin. They are super rare, and were issued after Charle, Jeane, and Francis all badly affected Disney World, yet, it opened up right afterwards anyway. I never even knew they made one, but apparently it was juswt given to a very few cast members who had helped with cleanup activities after all 3. Just traded fro ti today...while this storm is a threat. how ironic.

[Ivanhater]

At 102 hours drifts Ida back south maybe becoming extratropical

I still highly doubt anything would be left if it managed to reach the Panhandle of Florida with 60K+ of shear that is setting up in the northern GOM. Some high clouds are possible, but the main rain event would come in from the BOC low, not Ida..

Gator, this is not going to be an August/September setup. Ida will likely be merging with the boc low with most of the nasty weather along the northern gulf. A very messy setup. HPC reflects this

[gatorcane]

bouy in the Yucatan channel, look at the pressure drop and winds are increasing steadily:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=CST

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

This loop makes me think that the circulation center may be getting pulled up to the convection to the north east