ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[gatorcane]

Winds increasing off the Atlantic side of Florida this evening.

That will be the story as Ida moves into the GOM....alot of wind due to a very tight pressure gradient between Ida and High pressure building down the Eastern CONUS from the north....

These winds will be felt all across Florida for the next several days through about Tues.

[attallaman]

At 102 hours drifts Ida back south maybe becoming extratropical

I still highly doubt anything would be left if it managed to reach the Panhandle of Florida with 60K+ of shear that is setting up in the northern GOM. Some high clouds are possible, but the main rain event would come in from the BOC low, not Ida..

Gator, this is not going to be an August/September setup. Ida will likely be merging with the boc low with most of the nasty weather along the northern gulf. A very messy setup. HPC reflects this

Is that map reflecting the possibly of 4" or more of rain in my area?

[NEXRAD]

The meso-analysis offshore winds seem over-done to me, per the latest buoy and coastal obs. I'd not expect them to be much above 20-knots sustained, especially given the present RUC/2 analysis.

- Jay
South Florida

[cycloneye]

Convection consolidating near and over the center.Lets see after the eclipse,how it looks.

[blp]

Convection consolidating near and over the center.Lets see after the eclipse,how it looks.

When is the eclipse over? Thanks

[AtlanticWind]

I could be wrong (I have many times before) but I dont see this energy reaching the upper gulf coast , think it would be sheared apart or pushed back south .

[cycloneye]

When is the eclipse over? Thanks

Around 8:00Z or 4 AM EST.

[Derek Ortt]

I don't think there is an eclipse anymore. I have been getting sat images through the night

[cycloneye]

I don't think there is an eclipse anymore. I have been getting sat images through the night

Good to know that.

[Ivanhater]

Derek Ortt's Podcast for Ida

http://www.nwhhc.com/PNJ/pnj_1106.mp3

[blp]

Nice comeback. I did not think this would like this good this fast.

[gatorcane]

How could this not be a tropical storm already? It should be declared one at any time now.....

I still see it becoming a hurricane in the NW Caribbean before all is done.

Looking at the movement, it does appear it has slowed some but its tough to tell for sure with only IR. Could just be new thunderstorms blowing up more on the south side of the low now.

[IvanSurvivor]

That loop in the models is just too much. Wait for it, Wait for it...and then it turns around. By then we're already hunkered down!
Say this did come in the GOM as a Cat 1-2 and it did make the loop somewhere...would most all of Florida still get some rain, wind, waves and higher tides? Even if it never made landfall anywhere?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ericinmia]

Isn't that HPC graphic based off of the GFS?

If so, your throwing all of you cookies into one basket believing what it says as possible fact.
-Eric

[Ivanhater]

Isn't that HPC graphic based off of the GFS?

If so, your throwing all of you cookies into one basket believing what it says as possible fact.
-Eric

Not sure, but the new GFS is now in line with the Euro, Canadian and Nogaps. Pretty good basket to put my eggs in I'd say.

[ericinmia]

Isn't that HPC graphic based off of the GFS?

If so, your throwing all of you cookies into one basket believing what it says as possible fact.
-Eric

Not sure, but the new GFS is now in line with the Euro, Canadian and Nogaps. Pretty good basket to put my eggs in I'd say.

LOL, i'm so tired... I wrote cookies instead of Eggs. yikes.

I'm really curious to see how this turns out... I mirror it to a rubik's cube.
The solution is out there, but we won't know its the right one until the end.
-Eric

[Ivanhater]

Isn't that HPC graphic based off of the GFS?

If so, your throwing all of you cookies into one basket believing what it says as possible fact.
-Eric

Not sure, but the new GFS is now in line with the Euro, Canadian and Nogaps. Pretty good basket to put my eggs in I'd say.

LOL, i'm so tired... I wrote cookies instead of Eggs. yikes.

I'm really curious to see how this turns out... I mirror it to a rubik's cube.
The solution is out there, but we won't know its the right one until the end.
-Eric

Lol, I didn't even notice you said cookies. Either way I'm very surprised how fast Ida came together coming offshore. Interesting couple of days coming up, nice end to the 2009 season.

[boca]

I guess Ida will do the zig zag Fay thing from last year but in the Gulf.I still think a turn to the NE with the interaction of the front.

[ericinmia]

Watch out Bermuda... the deep flow Bam is pointing right at you. (This is a joke for those that don't know.)





I am looking forward to the new GFDL, and HWRF. If they keep this up, it should make for an interesting scenario...
-Eric