ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Derek Ortt]

At 102 hours drifts Ida back south maybe becoming extratropical

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I still highly doubt anything would be left if it managed to reach the Panhandle of Florida with 60K-80K of shear that is setting up in the northern GOM. Some high clouds are possible, but the main rain event would come in from the BOC low, not Ida..Ida is history if she thinks she is going to make landfall in the Northern GOM as a true tropical system. SSTs don't even support it in the northern GOM as well. Looks like lows in the 40s tonight across areas of the northern GOM....

not quite. I checked the UL pattern of the other models and they were not showing 60KT of shear over Ida. They were showing a small anti-cyclone favoring a poleward outflow channel.

The 60-80KT of shear is not likely to occur until the trough dives into the GOM

[Ivanhater]

00z Nogaps 96 hrs

[ericinmia]

I may be hallucinating (sp?) but it appears that there is some NNE-erly movement going on for a handful of frames here. It could very well be that Ida is simply trying to consolodate her LLC and MLC and her cloud structure into one 'proper' CDO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

Does anyone else see this?

[boca]

00z Nogaps 96 hrs

I think thats the western most model outlier the Nogaps. I wondering if this goes due north and doesn't turn NNW.I keep on thinking of Irene in 1999,all the models had the about 75 miles off the west coast of Florida.Irene turned NNE before the Keys and cut thru the peninsula of Florida.

[tolakram]

It looks badly sheared to me. Maybe I'm looking at it wrong, but the central convection is having trouble maintaining and the entire blob is being pushed NE while the center is still moving north.



Shortwave Loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

Nighttime visible:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[boca]

Ericinmia,look at my post in the model thread. I see the same thing but it could be that its consolidating.I wonder if 96L will push Ida more NNE because 96L is moving NE.

[gatorcane]

There is some SW shear as shown by the 200MB flow, but the shear isn't that harsh at the moment:

[jinftl]

The models showing a more central Gulf track don't even have the current motion correct...they are showing the system heading more nw in the short term. Her motion has been north....gained 0 longitude in the last 24 hours.

Watch out Bermuda... the deep flow Bam is pointing right at you. (This is a joke for those that don't know.)



I am looking forward to the new GFDL, and HWRF. If they keep this up, it should make for an interesting scenario...
-Eric

[boca]

I keep on thinking Irene track with this one,not Irene intensity but simular track.It just a gut feeling.

[Typhoon_Willie]

To my amateur eye it would seem like it is moving nne. Or just east of due North.

[Evil Jeremy]

Ericinmia,look at my post in the model thread. I see the same thing but it could be that its consolidating.I wonder if 96L will push Ida more NNE because 96L is moving NE.

Jeff Masters said mid week that the two systems should mirror each other's path.

[Ivanhater]

00z GFDL approaches the Northern Gulfcoast with the highest winds to the NW approaching the coast in 90 hours

[fci]

So do we think that the SE turn at 5 days is the start of a predicted loop, stall, turn or "who knows"???

[boca]

Ericinmia,look at my post in the model thread. I see the same thing but it could be that its consolidating.I wonder if 96L will push Ida more NNE because 96L is moving NE.

Jeff Masters said mid week that the two systems should mirror each other's path.

Yes I remember that also the models heading towards the Central Gulf of Mexico already have Ida moving NW,its till moving N or E of N.

[boca]

So do we think that the SE turn at 5 days is the start of a predicted loop, stall, turn or "who knows"???

I guess its possible in November even though I don't think it will happen.

[Ivanhater]

00z Canadian

[Derek Ortt]

moving north. Convection earlier was west of the center. It is now over the center

[blp]

00Z UKMET ends up in Fort Myers after just brushing the NGOM.

[Derek Ortt]

The CMC solution is absurd. There is nothing that suggests an immediate shot to the WNW. I cannot see why it is doing that (maybe because I am very tired)

[boca]

I don't see the turn to the NW yet.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif