EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

[srainhoutx]

TD#1 Declared by NHC...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
PASSED TO THE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS YESTERDAY HAS BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT
310 MILES...500 KM...SOUTH OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND AND ABOUT 635
MILES...1020 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
OVER COLDER WATERS BY SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...37.3N 71.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN

[Chacor]

WTNT31 KNHC 281449
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
PASSED TO THE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS YESTERDAY HAS BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT
310 MILES...500 KM...SOUTH OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND AND ABOUT 635
MILES...1020 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
OVER COLDER WATERS BY SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...37.3N 71.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN

[Chacor]

WTNT41 KNHC 281450
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCICATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SINCE ABOUT 04Z THIS MORNING
WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE 25-26C WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 12Z WERE
T2.0 AND T1.5...RESPECTIVELY. AN AMSU PASS AT 1033Z HELPS TO PLACE
THE CENTER ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON
THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/15. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS BASIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AT LEAST THROUGH 36 HOURS...WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
LOSE DEFINITION IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.

VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS LIGHT...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIVING
OFF THE NARROW GULF STREAM WATERS. AS LONG AS IT REMAINS THERE SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW THE SYSTEM REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THE INITIAL SST
INPUT TO THE MODEL APPEAR TOO COLD. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...A LOSS OF CONVECTION...AND
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...IS EXPECTED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 37.3N 71.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 38.5N 68.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 40.2N 64.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 41.5N 60.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 43.0N 55.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 31/1200Z 46.0N 46.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

[Derek Ortt]

we have TD 1

let this be stark reminder to all that what we think we know .. is not always the case

including all pro mets

your post Aric is totally unnecessary

[Sanibel]

A little more than just a ghost system here. Is the season expanding or are we more equipped to detect little marginal systems?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Doesn't look all that bad, really...

[Aric Dunn]

i flat out .. blew it off yesterday.... even though im always saying there is always a chance till its completely gone....and well i was pretty much wrong on my forecast the other day... oh well win some and you lose some..

very interesting little system though .. it found a little home within a little part of the gulf stream...

[Aric Dunn]

A little more than just a ghost system here. Is the season expanding or are we more equipped to detect little marginal systems?

there you go.... you nailed it

we are very much more able to determine tropical cyclone...

this system would have gone almost un noticed probably 15 or 20 years back... or at least blown off as our thinking of where and when a system could form was a little more .. what the word lacking..

[Chacor]

The system is close to the US mainland. I think it wouldn't be exactly right to say it'd have gone unnoticed 15 to 20 years back. If it was out in the Atlantic, maybe it wouldn't have been upgraded in that time period, but as a US shipping threat it'd definitely have been noticed.

[Aric Dunn]

The system is close to the US mainland. I think it wouldn't be exactly right to say it'd have gone unnoticed 15 to 20 years back. If it was out in the Atlantic, maybe it wouldn't have been upgraded in that time period, but as a US shipping threat it'd definitely have been noticed.

as a tropical cyclone.. maybe.. its also very small ... but before satellite was readily in use, it most likely would have gone un-noticed... maybe not 15 or 20 now that i think about it that really is not that long ago...lol

30 to 40 years ago...

[HURAKAN]

Is RECON going to fly? Haven't seen any updates. We should use the unmanned vehicle.

[robbielyn]

I think Aric's comment is a generalized statement that need not be taken in a sarcastic way but is truly reality. Even the NHC didn't think this would develop because all the odds were against it but it still did anyways. Pretty humbling to all of us I think.

[cycloneye]

Look like is not far away to be named Ana.

[cycloneye]

Will they have a standby plane to fly later today?

[Aric Dunn]

they should.. i would love to know the temp gradient... !!

with sst's being where they are .... I imagine its warm core but the temps have to be lower ? hmm

[HURAKAN]

I think Aric's comment is a generalized statement that need not be taken in a sarcastic way but is truly reality. Even the NHC didn't think this would develop because all the odds were against it but it still did anyways. Pretty humbling to all of us I think.

In the tropics, never say never. The impossible is once in a while, possible.

[jasons2k]

i flat out .. blew it off yesterday.... even though im always saying there is always a chance till its completely gone....and well i was pretty much wrong on my forecast the other day... oh well win some and you lose some..

very interesting little system though .. it found a little home within a little part of the gulf stream...

Looking at that satellite pic, I really don't think it would have been "blown off" 20 years ago. 1989 wasn't exactly the dark ages.

[robbielyn]

I think Aric's comment is a generalized statement that need not be taken in a sarcastic way but is truly reality. Even the NHC didn't think this would develop because all the odds were against it but it still did anyways. Pretty humbling to all of us I think.

In the tropics, never say never. The impossible is once in a while, possible.

Touche Hurakan: That is what makes weather so amazing and interesting. Happy hurricane tracking and stay safe in miami. Hope you all get some much needed rain and no more tornadoes down there.

[Aric Dunn]

i flat out .. blew it off yesterday.... even though im always saying there is always a chance till its completely gone....and well i was pretty much wrong on my forecast the other day... oh well win some and you lose some..

very interesting little system though .. it found a little home within a little part of the gulf stream...

Looking at that satellite pic, I really don't think it would have been "blown off" 20 years ago. 1989 wasn't exactly the dark ages.

right... i withdrew the 15 to 20 years since 15 years ago was nearly 1995 already.. lol

even still our definition of what a tropical system could form in was different .... 2005 changed everything a lot..