WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (19W)

[cycloneye]

JMA latest warning=105kts

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

TY 0917 (Parma)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 1 October 2009
<Analyses at 01/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Intense
Center position N11°50'(11.8°)
E131°05'(131.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 280km(150NM)

[StormingB81]

JMA has this comming just east of Okinawa in the 5 Day Forecast

[RattleMan]

WTPN33 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 11.8N 131.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 131.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 13.1N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.5N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 15.6N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.7N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.6N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.8N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.1N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 130.5E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTH-
WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z,
011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS
(WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Cyclenall]

On first glance Parma looks to be about 130 knots (1-min) or so but it's probably already a Super Typhoon at 140-145 knots at least. That is an extremely impressive typhoon right there!! Funny looking at 100 knots on the NRL for it a few hours ago. Same signature as Wilma on AVN but a slightly larger eye (not sure about the comparison on the previous page). The same evolution of Parma near the end of the latest loop even looks similar to the way Wilma was expanding while skyrocketing in intensity, the main differences being the speed of Parma's movement and the eye evolution. I don't like comparing systems to the legend, but I can't ignore Typhoon Parma's resemblance.

Great call to the members who were predicting the explosion in strength compared to the official forecasts.

[cycloneye]

Yikes!

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to Super-Typhoon but we have to wait for JMA to make it official.

[StormingB81]

This will turn miss the Phillipines and come near Okinawa and Tawian.

[Macrocane]

JTWC upgrades to Super-Typhoon but we have to wait for JMA to make it official.

I think that JMA doesn't use the term super-typhoon.

[Derek Ortt]

JTWC upgrades to Super-Typhoon but we have to wait for JMA to make it official.

someone already changed the threat title without the official classification

JMA is in the 120-125KT range when the 1 minute conversion is made

[cycloneye]

Interesting discussion of the latest warning,

WDPN33 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 19W (PARMA)WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 19W (PARMA) HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AND
HAS DEVELOPED A PIN-HOLE EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE WELL-DEFINED EYE. THE SYSTEM IS EXHIBITING
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
TO THE NORTH. CURRENT INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH A
DIVERGENT POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. TY 19W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE TRACK DESCRIBED IN
PARA 2.A. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU 48, WHICH WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
BY INCREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 72, LAND
INTERACTION WITH THE ISLAND OF LUZON WILL DIMINISH SOME OF ITS
INTENSITY BUT THE SYSTEM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN A STRONG TYPHOON.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY PARMA WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO
INTERACT WITH NORTHEASTERN LUZON'S TOPOGRAPHY. ONCE IT CROSSES INTO
LUZON STRAIT, IT WILL REGAIN/MAINTAIN ITS STRONG TYPHOON INTENSITY.
DURING THIS PERIOD, TYPHOON PARMA WILL SLOW DOWN ITS FORWARD MOTION AS
A BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE DEVELOPS AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH
TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) COMMENCES. AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 WHERE THEY PROGRESSIVELY DIVERGE WITH
JGSM, GFS AND TCLAPS TO THE EXTREME RIGHT AND NOGAPS, GFDN, WBAR, AND
EGRR TO THE FAR LEFT. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE
MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE AND RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AND ECMWF.//
NNNN

[supercane]

JTWC upgrades to Super-Typhoon but we have to wait for JMA to make it official.

I think that JMA doesn't use the term super-typhoon.

someone already changed the threat title without the official classification

JMA is in the 120-125KT range when the 1 minute conversion is made

Agree with Macrocane that since JMA does not use the term "super typhoon" anyway that requiring the converted 10-min wind speed to match JTWC's threshold of 130 kt is ridiculous. Besides, we saw the thread title change with Super Typhoon Choi-wan based on the JTWC classification alone, as the system never met the above threshold using JMA advisories. Finally, the term "official" only has meaning in regards to the WMO designated RSMC. Per their website

The Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo - Typhoon Center provides information on tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea, including present and forecast positions as well as the movement and intensity of tropical cyclones.

Please note that information issued by the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center represents neither official analysis/forecasts nor warnings for the areas concerned. Such official information is issued by the National Meteorological Services of individual countries.

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.htm
Thus the best argument for using the RSMC Tokyo data is consistency, not the stamp of officiality (although as noted above the board is not entirely consistent with this). The western Federated States of Micronesia and (FSM) and the Republic of Palau was the area previously threatened, so per the above quote, since FSM and Palau are in NWS Guam's AOR, the JTWC and, by extension, NWS Guam could be considered as "official" as any other source. (Makes you appreciate the NHC/CPHC hegemony all the more).

By the way, nice rapid intensification for this storm, if not enough to erase the ACE drought.

supercane

[HURAKAN]

Impressive storm

[cycloneye]

The Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo - Typhoon Center provides information on tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea, including present and forecast positions as well as the movement and intensity of tropical cyclones.

Please note that information issued by the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center represents neither official analysis/forecasts nor warnings for the areas concerned. Such official information is issued by the National Meteorological Services of individual countries.

Based on that I added the word Super to title.

[HurricaneBill]

That's a strange looking typhoon. I mean, the eye is miniscule and I believe it's very powerful...but the structure doesn't look right at all. It's lopsided and appears to only have one decent outflow channel. Compared to the bottom busters I'm used to seeing in the Atlantic, or even to Jimena or Choi-Wan, this storm doesn't look especially healthy. Is there some shear in the vicinity or a dry slot off to the storm's east? I certainly hope this thing collapses as quickly as it's intensified.

I've noticed that intense typhoons in the WPAC tend to look this way. Some examples are Super Typhoon Mike in 1990 and Super Typhoon Gay in 1992.

However, I think the lopsidedness is more often seen in Southern Hemisphere TCs, especially the ones near Australia.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful typhoon

[Derek Ortt]

The same setup IS true for the Atlantic where many countries issue their own advisories

Canada, France, Cuba, Belize (which actually requires the government, not just the meteorologists to issue any warnings) and probably many others. Individual countries are responsible for issuing their own warnings 9which is how you get different timing criterion for the between France and surrounding states

[supercane]

PAGASA (the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration)'s latest forecast shows Parma (or Pepeng, as the storm will be referred to in the Philippines) crossing Luzon, and storm signals are raised for some northern provinces. See http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tc_up.html.

supercane

[Cyclenall]

It seems like Parma's deep convection around the pinhole eye is fanning out meaning it's not as strong around it and the typhoon is getting larger. I tend to think of it almost as if the cyclone is pushing that central energy outwards to expand it's size.

I really don't know if this is going to move north very fast, it seems like it's moving too fast westwards in the last few frames there. It would be a dramatic shift in speed and direction to make the forecast. Already the outer rain bands are affecting the Philippines.

[Typhoon10]

Is it going to be bigger/more powerful than Choi-Wan?

For my own selfish reasons, I hope it doesnt move north and comes across into the SCS towards HK. Since I moved to Asia, its been my dream to experience a T10 here in HK