For the member who is in Saipan,here is the latest forecast.
Today...Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. North winds 15 to 25 mph. Highs around 86.
Tonight...Damaging winds. North winds 25 to 35 mph increasing to northwest 35 to 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph after midnight. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows around 76.
Saturday...Damaging winds. Northwest winds 50 to 60 mph with gusts to 80 mph becoming west and increasing to 60 to 75 mph with gusts to 100 mph in the afternoon. Numerous heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 81.
Saturday Night...Damaging winds. Southwest winds 55 to 70 mph with gusts to 90 mph becoming south and decreasing to 35 to 45 mph after midnight. Numerous heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows around 75.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=GUZ004
WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139765
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
LOL
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 OCT 2009 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 14:31:57 N Lon : 150:54:44 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 974.9mb/ 69.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.8 3.6 3.6
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.9mb
Center Temp : -70.4C Cloud Region Temp : -72.6C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 OCT 2009 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 14:31:57 N Lon : 150:54:44 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 974.9mb/ 69.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.8 3.6 3.6
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.9mb
Center Temp : -70.4C Cloud Region Temp : -72.6C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139765
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
0300z warning by JTWC=120kts
WTPN34 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 14.2N 151.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 151.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.7N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.4N 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.1N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.7N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.2N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.6N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.2N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 150.7E.
TYPHOON 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM EAST OF SAIPAN,
HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W
(PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WTPN34 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 14.2N 151.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 151.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.7N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.4N 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.1N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.7N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.2N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.6N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.2N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 150.7E.
TYPHOON 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM EAST OF SAIPAN,
HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W
(PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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cheezyWXguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 5570
- Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
- Location: Dallas, TX
Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
HURAKAN wrote:LOL
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 OCT 2009 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 14:31:57 N Lon : 150:54:44 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 974.9mb/ 69.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.8 3.6 3.6
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.9mb
Center Temp : -70.4C Cloud Region Temp : -72.6C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Its because the eye is so poorly defined on satelite I bet. Based on appearance I wouldn't think this was 120kt at first glance either
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Derek Ortt
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139765
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
It will be interesting to follow the observations as Melor gets closer to Saipan.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/PGSN.html
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/PGSN.html
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN34 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 14.2N 151.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 151.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.7N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.4N 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.1N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.7N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.2N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.6N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.2N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 150.7E.
TYPHOON 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM EAST OF SAIPAN,
HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W
(PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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cheezyWXguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 5570
- Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
- Location: Dallas, TX
Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:those ADT numbers are why I do not place much stock in them
simple cirrus overcast can throw the whole thing off
Although I agree that the numbers are off, this thing really doesn't look like a 120kt typhoon, maybe a 95kt imo. So with faulty t-numbers and no recon, how do we know its really 120kt?
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
cycloneye wrote:For the member who is in Saipan,here is the latest forecast.
Today...Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. North winds 15 to 25 mph. Highs around 86.
Tonight...Damaging winds. North winds 25 to 35 mph increasing to northwest 35 to 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph after midnight. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows around 76.
Saturday...Damaging winds. Northwest winds 50 to 60 mph with gusts to 80 mph becoming west and increasing to 60 to 75 mph with gusts to 100 mph in the afternoon. Numerous heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 81.
Saturday Night...Damaging winds. Southwest winds 55 to 70 mph with gusts to 90 mph becoming south and decreasing to 35 to 45 mph after midnight. Numerous heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows around 75.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=GUZ004
Thanks cycloneye much appreciated. If you see a track more to the west than forecast let us know. Very very slow internet here. Jim Edds
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
Discussion of 0300z warning.
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR) HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED AS ITS PIN-HOLE
EYE OCCASIONALLY BECAME VISIBLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
SYMMETRY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE FIXES FROM
PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TYPHOON MELOR IS JUST TO THE WEST OF A DIVERGENT POINT
SOURCE IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 20W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY OVER
THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW TYPHOON MELOR TO
BEGIN RECURVING TOWARDS THE NORTH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS ON THE FAR RIGHT AND EGRR ON THE FAR LEFT
OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK JUST
TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS AND TO THE RIGHT OF ECMWF.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR) HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED AS ITS PIN-HOLE
EYE OCCASIONALLY BECAME VISIBLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
SYMMETRY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE FIXES FROM
PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TYPHOON MELOR IS JUST TO THE WEST OF A DIVERGENT POINT
SOURCE IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 20W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY OVER
THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW TYPHOON MELOR TO
BEGIN RECURVING TOWARDS THE NORTH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS ON THE FAR RIGHT AND EGRR ON THE FAR LEFT
OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK JUST
TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS AND TO THE RIGHT OF ECMWF.//
NNNN
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
Thanks cycloneye much appreciated. If you see a track more to the west than forecast let us know. Very very slow internet here. Jim Edds
The 0300z track has passing the eye 41 miles to the north of Saipan.The earlier track had it passing at 47 miles so its a small south shift.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
000
WTPQ34 PGUM 020313
TCPPQ4
BULLETIN
TYPHOON MELOR (20W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
200 PM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009
...TYPHOON MELOR CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANAS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA AND
AGRIHAN.
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND AGRIHAN.
A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS GREATER
THAN 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THAT
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.7 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 335 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
345 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
370 MILES EAST OF ROTA
400 MILES EAST OF GUAM AND
455 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN.
TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 140 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CHST POSITION...14.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
AND 150.7 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 PM LATER THIS AFTERNOON CHST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 PM.
$$
WILLIAMS/MUNDELL
WTPQ34 PGUM 020313
TCPPQ4
BULLETIN
TYPHOON MELOR (20W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
200 PM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009
...TYPHOON MELOR CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANAS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA AND
AGRIHAN.
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND AGRIHAN.
A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS GREATER
THAN 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THAT
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.7 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 335 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
345 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
370 MILES EAST OF ROTA
400 MILES EAST OF GUAM AND
455 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN.
TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 140 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CHST POSITION...14.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
AND 150.7 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 PM LATER THIS AFTERNOON CHST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 PM.
$$
WILLIAMS/MUNDELL
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
cycloneye wrote:Thanks cycloneye much appreciated. If you see a track more to the west than forecast let us know. Very very slow internet here. Jim Edds
The 0300z track has passing the eye 41 miles to the north of Saipan.The earlier track had it passing at 47 miles so its a small south shift.
Is the movement based on satellite more west than forecast? This one is going to be a real nail biter. Many folks here are Philippino and are worried about Melor and Parma back home. I'm updating them with your info. For some odd reason I can't pull up anything but S2K.
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
Latest local statement from NWS GUAM
TYPHOON MELOR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
152 PM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009
...TYPHOON MELOR MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANAS...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...AGRIHAN AND
GUAM.
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND AGRIHAN.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.7 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 335 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN...345 MILES EAST OF TINIAN...
370 MILES EAST OF ROTA...400 MILES EAST OF GUAM AND 455 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN.
TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 140 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
MELOR IS A LARGE AND DANGEROUS TYPHOON. THE RADIUS OF DAMAGING
WINDS EXTENDS FAR FROM THE CENTER. ISLANDS HUNDREDS OF MILES FROM
THE TYPHOON EYE WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS. MELOR
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE TOWARD THE MARIANAS. THE ONSET
OF DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS TONIGHT.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR PROTECTION OF LIFE
AND PROPERTY. MARINERS NEED TO RUSH TO COMPLETION PREPARATIONS
FOR PROTECTING THEIR VESSELS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
AND WELL SECURED. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PREPAREDNESS
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED INSTRUCTIONS FOR YOUR
LOCATION ISSUED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 9 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-021600-
/X.UPG.PGUM.TR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/X.NEW.PGUM.TY.W.0001.091002T0352Z-000000T0000Z/
/X.UPG.PGUM.TY.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
152 PM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009
...TYPHOON WARNING IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
TINIAN AND SAIPAN ARE NOW IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 2.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF MORE THAN 73 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHELTER LOCATIONS AND
INSTRUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ANNOUNCED SHORTLY. CHECK WITH
THE SAIPAN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY NEED TO BE
COMPLETED TODAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TONIGHT. TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 100 MPH ON SAIPAN...WHICH WILL DESTROY
WOOD AND TIN SHELTERS...AND DAMAGE DOORS AND WINDOWS OF CONCRETE
BUILDINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.
IF YOU LIVE IN A TIN-ROOF HOME...PREPARE NOW TO LEAVE IT FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD SECURE THEIR CRAFT. STAY
INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON MELOR MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE
WINDWARD COASTS. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 16 TO 20 FEET ON ALL EXPOSURES
IS POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...UP 6 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED IN
WESTERN VILLAGES AS OVERFLOW FROM LAKE SUSUPE COMBINES WITH THE
STORM SURGE. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED.
TYPHOON MELOR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
152 PM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009
...TYPHOON MELOR MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANAS...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...AGRIHAN AND
GUAM.
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND AGRIHAN.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.7 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 335 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN...345 MILES EAST OF TINIAN...
370 MILES EAST OF ROTA...400 MILES EAST OF GUAM AND 455 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN.
TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 140 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
MELOR IS A LARGE AND DANGEROUS TYPHOON. THE RADIUS OF DAMAGING
WINDS EXTENDS FAR FROM THE CENTER. ISLANDS HUNDREDS OF MILES FROM
THE TYPHOON EYE WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS. MELOR
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE TOWARD THE MARIANAS. THE ONSET
OF DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS TONIGHT.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR PROTECTION OF LIFE
AND PROPERTY. MARINERS NEED TO RUSH TO COMPLETION PREPARATIONS
FOR PROTECTING THEIR VESSELS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
AND WELL SECURED. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PREPAREDNESS
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED INSTRUCTIONS FOR YOUR
LOCATION ISSUED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 9 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-021600-
/X.UPG.PGUM.TR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/X.NEW.PGUM.TY.W.0001.091002T0352Z-000000T0000Z/
/X.UPG.PGUM.TY.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
152 PM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009
...TYPHOON WARNING IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
TINIAN AND SAIPAN ARE NOW IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 2.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF MORE THAN 73 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHELTER LOCATIONS AND
INSTRUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ANNOUNCED SHORTLY. CHECK WITH
THE SAIPAN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY NEED TO BE
COMPLETED TODAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TONIGHT. TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 100 MPH ON SAIPAN...WHICH WILL DESTROY
WOOD AND TIN SHELTERS...AND DAMAGE DOORS AND WINDOWS OF CONCRETE
BUILDINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.
IF YOU LIVE IN A TIN-ROOF HOME...PREPARE NOW TO LEAVE IT FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD SECURE THEIR CRAFT. STAY
INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON MELOR MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE
WINDWARD COASTS. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 16 TO 20 FEET ON ALL EXPOSURES
IS POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...UP 6 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED IN
WESTERN VILLAGES AS OVERFLOW FROM LAKE SUSUPE COMBINES WITH THE
STORM SURGE. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
I'm at
15 degrees
12 min
29 seconds
145 degreess
43 min
16 seconds
on a map it's the middle of Saipan on the west side.
15 degrees
12 min
29 seconds
145 degreess
43 min
16 seconds
on a map it's the middle of Saipan on the west side.
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StormingB81
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
It's 5:34pm here in Saipan and 2:34 CDT. Light winds, sun is still out, cirrus outflow can be seen overhead.
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Typhoon Hunter
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
Best of luck Jim, stay safe and get some awesome shots.
I'm off to the Philippines tonight to see what Parma has in store. It's going to be a rough weekend for both Saipan and the Philippines.
I'm off to the Philippines tonight to see what Parma has in store. It's going to be a rough weekend for both Saipan and the Philippines.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
Typhoon Hunter wrote:Best of luck Jim, stay safe and get some awesome shots.
I'm off to the Philippines tonight to see what Parma has in store. It's going to be a rough weekend for both Saipan and the Philippines.
Happy Hunting James and stay safe!
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