WTXS33 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 17.2S 123.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 123.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.0S 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.2S 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.6S 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.0S 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.8S 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.6S 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.6S 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 123.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE BROOME RADAR AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TC 06S HAS ACCELERATED WESTWARD AND
STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AT
18/13Z INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS JUST MOVED INLAND OVER
DAMPIER LAND AND ALSO DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING SOUTH WRAPPING INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. AN 18/1129Z SSMIS IMAGE REFLECTS THIS IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION AND HINTS AT A WEAK, FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE. DESPITE
THE IMPROVED SIGNATURE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY, NUMEROUS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA SUPPORT A 30-35 KNOT SYSTEM AT BEST. TC 06S
PASSED DIRECTLY OVER DERBY AT 18/09Z WITH A MINIMUM SLP OF 998 MB AND
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REMAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW,
PARTICULARLY POLEWARD, WHICH IS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD
IN THE EXTENDED TAUS AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH ERODES THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A 10-15 KNOT PER DAY RATE
ONCE IT MOVES BACK OVER WARM WATER BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM
MAY INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY AND PEAK AT A MUCH HIGHER INTENSITY
UNDER THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.//
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