ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[tolakram]

Better Shortwave image from http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/#

[knotimpaired]

I just wish she would make up her mind. Earlier today she was 20 miles north of our small island.

As of now, the NHC has her 21 miles south of us clipping the west end of St. Croix. This means quite a bit to us. It it stays on the north we do not get the brunt of the wind. If it is south, we do.


Wild Bill, I AM worried about. Right now it appears (as we all know) to be taking Ana's course.

[senorpepr]

To follow along and to decode recon: http://www.hhrecon.com/recon/


880
UZNT13 KWBC 152141
XXAA 6521/ 99142 70511 04241 99009 26823 ///// 00078 26422 92764
22635 85497 18628 70136 09442 50586 04957 40758 14978 30969 30560
25096 40169 20245 519// 88999 77999
31313 09608 82122
51515 10190 15426
61616 NOAA9 WX02A ANA OB 02
62626 SPL 1422N05111W 2130 AEV 20801 REL 1423N05109W 212220 SPG 1
422N05111W 213056 =
XXBB 65218 99142 70511 04241 00009 26823 11850 18628 22775 13209
33736 10825 44678 08234 55660 07858 66600 03857 77576 01842 88544
00756 99510 04329 11482 06360 22462 08559 33452 09379 44401 14778
55390 16578 66376 18361 77350 21974 88341 23769 99328 25758 11304
29762 22294 31557 33282 33771 44254 39170 55245 41368 66191 531//
77159 63537
21212 00009 /////
31313 09608 82122
51515 10190 15426
61616 NOAA9 WX02A ANA OB 02
62626 SPL 1422N05111W 2130 AEV 20801 REL 1423N05109W 212220 SPG 1
422N05111W 213056 =



515
UZNT13 KWBC 152200
XXAA 65222 99145 70500 04140 99004 25401 ///// 00038 25001 16034
92723 22001 16524 85457 18205 17020 70108 11839 14504 50585 03357
36023 40758 14743 01019 30970 29163 08013 25098 40169 12506 20246
531// 11523 88999 77999
31313 09608 82131
51515 10190 15425
61616 NOAA9 WX02A ANA OB 03
62626 SPL 1446N04998W 2146 LST WND 012 MBL WND 16530 AEV 20801 DL
M WND 09008 003159 WL150 16034 081 REL 1445N04996W 213149 SPG 144
6N04998W 214617 =
XXBB 65228 99145 70500 04140 00004 25401 11850 18205 22732 12813
33705 12039 44576 02410 55550 02857 66516 01350 77481 05560 88465
07156 99446 09359 11395 15542 22374 17362 33362 19170 44334 23361
55322 24366 66297 29763 77277 33970 88251 39769 99222 47357 11211
50357 22159 64137
21212 00004 ///// 11003 15527 22001 15534 33997 16036 44916 17023
55850 17020 66724 17510 77622 04001 88552 35518 99485 00525 11418
35518 22409 01019 33369 01517 44295 08013 55262 14002 66232 10511
77213 10019 88195 11026 99180 08531
31313 09608 82131
51515 10190 15425
61616 NOAA9 WX02A ANA OB 03
62626 SPL 1446N04998W 2146 LST WND 012 MBL WND 16530 AEV 20801 DL
M WND 09008 003159 WL150 16034 081 REL 1445N04996W 213149 SPG 144
6N04998W 214617 =


915
UZNT13 KWBC 152210
XXAA 65222 99156 70510 04251 99011 27225 06523 00097 26220 07022
92782 21828 08524 85514 18637 09029 70154 09057 09039 50588 04558
05519 40760 15172 04515 30971 30560 15507 25098 41168 14510 20245
539// 17019 88999 77999
31313 09608 82148
51515 10190 15425
61616 NOAA9 WX02A ANA OB 04
62626 SPL 1562N05105W 2203 MBL WND 07023 AEV 20801 DLM WND 09018
010156 WL150 07021 084 REL 1562N05096W 214843 SPG 1562N05104W 220
304 =
XXBB 65228 99156 70510 04251 00011 27225 11971 24011 22914 21842
33850 18637 44775 14038 55761 13456 66731 10637 77722 10858 88710
10058 99688 08444 11676 08659 22651 07060 33643 06257 44621 05263
55594 03259 66580 02464 77570 02062 88558 00863 99539 01157 11508
03763 22487 05556 33463 08342 44452 09559 55428 12359 66405 14377
77318 27373 88297 30958 99293 31759 11259 39170 22203 52962 33177
601// 44156 61956
21212 00011 06523 11006 07019 22944 08027 33926 08524 44882 09531
55850 09029 66692 09040 77512 06523 88487 05022 99475 06018 11440
04521 22368 05014 33347 03011 44303 13005 55296 16010 66250 14510
77234 16514 88215 15019 99199 17020 11188 16519 22169 14037 33165
14532
31313 09608 82148
51515 10190 15425
61616 NOAA9 WX02A ANA OB 04
62626 SPL 1562N05105W 2203 MBL WND 07023 AEV 20801 DLM WND 09018
010156 WL150 07021 084 REL 1562N05096W 214843 SPG 1562N05104W 220
304 =

[HurricaneRobert]

I'm hoping she ends up like this:

[tolakram]

You want a hurricane in the gulf?

[Evil Jeremy]

I think he means he wants it to end up like Chris, which died in the mountains of the islands, instead of becoming a hurricane in the gulf.

[Air Force Met]

Every advisory has shifted the track to the left. No reason to think that'll stop now.

What do you think the chances are now that this will impact SFL, or is is still to soon to tell?

If I were you, I wouldn't be too worried about Ana. It's sacrificing itself for Bill (and Claudette).

I'm more worried about Ana than Bill or Claudette. I think its going to be a struggle for this system...but its more of a threat for us (on the NW or N Gulf Coast) than Bill. Bill, I think, is more of a threat to FL and maybe NE GoM or SE US...if it doesn't recurve like the Euro shows. Ana...because of her weak nature...is going west...and I do think she will eventually get it together. I think she will go south of the big islands and because she is a couple of days ahead of Bill...she is going to beat all the trofs and end up in the north or northwest Gulf.

That's my fear. If she makes it the next 48 hrs...and doesn't take a suicide mission over PR-Hisp-Cuba...this one is a threat...especially after the two tracks separate when Bill starts feeling the weaknesses and scooting WNW.

Given its small nature...and the environment there...watch out.

[tolakram]

Oh, I'm sorry for the misunderstanding.

[KWT]

Right on the forecast line as well there, Ana seems to be right on track for a encounter with mountions!

[ROCK]

I have seen it to many times...anything over Hisp and the core will be toast.....if any regeneration is to occur it will be in the GOM where the ssts are running higher than 05....the LC is boiling....

[gatorcane]

The thing about Ana is that if she strengthens more quickly than forecast, she is likely to move more WNW and take more of a path into the Bahamas and maybe FL. If she stays weak then she should move into the Caribbean and bend more WNW then NW ahead of the big trough that is supposed to come down from the CONUS in about 7 days from now, which could put here in the area of Jamaica/Western Caribbean at that time. But yeah if she misses the big islands I guess she can be a real threat down the road possibly. GFS still is weakening her to just about nothing in about 3-4 days.

[Bailey1777]

She really is a small system, dodgeing these land masses is a real possibility.

[KWT]

The thing is it doesn't get itself togther there isn't going to be a core to destroy really, if anything I'll be a little more worried if it goes across without an inner core then if it goes over with one. A disrupted core I find takes a while to get going, whilst if there isn't one I'd guess it'd be easier to pop a frest one out rather then have to restructure the whole thing again.

[Emmett_Brown]

The models continue their relentless trend to the W. At this point, unless Ana starts gaining some latitude, I think there is a possibility Ana could be a Caribbean Cruiser... a long shot, but might even miss the big islands to the south IMO. I expect the forecast track to continue to be moved S and W.

[KWT]

I suspect its the fact that this is a small system that is causing all the models so many problems.

[Evil Jeremy]

The thing about Ana is that if she strengthens more quickly than forecast, she is likely to move more WNW and take more of a path into the Bahamas and maybe FL.

Thats why I am a little worried about the fact that she is maintaining nice convection that is starting to cover her center again. If she can do this well in a bad environment, she can really strengthen in about 12-24 or so hours I think when she moves out of the "death zone". She can strengthen faster than expected and change the track. Anything can happen.

[Bailey1777]

I wonder if they take into account that the path they project(model) is exact and if so and that path encounters certain terrain it kills them off.

[Bocadude85]

The thing about Ana is that if she strengthens more quickly than forecast, she is likely to move more WNW and take more of a path into the Bahamas and maybe FL.

Thats why I am a little worried about the fact that she is maintaining nice convection that is starting to cover her center again. If she can do this well in a bad environment, she can really strengthen in about 12-24 or so hours I think when she moves out of the "death zone". She can strengthen faster than expected and change the track. Anything can happen.

I do not think we will have any problems from Ana or Bill for that matter here in South Florida.

[HurricaneRobert]

Is nogaps the one forecasting for wind shear? It seems to have the worst solution, so how reliable is it?

[Bailey1777]

Just my opinion but I would go West of Florida.