ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Bocadude85]

You know there were a lot of hurricanes in the 1940's that hit Sout Florida and curved up the center of the state as trough's approached.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the AccuWeather map, I'm leaning at this point towards an early recurve around 50W, as a weakness may exist between the Azores High and the Bermuda High.

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF has a major cane but stays just NE of the islands.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Derek Ortt]

Looking at the AccuWeather map, I'm leaning at this point towards an early recurve around 50W, as a weakness may exist between the Azores High and the Bermuda High.

nothing supports that scenario at all. The weakness is expected to be very very weak

[StormClouds63]

Mentioned yesterday I thought the path (not intensity) of the future Ana could be similar to Floyd (1999) or Isabel (2003). Would also have to look at Bertha and Fran (both from 1996), Hugo (1989), and Dennis (1999). If the system develops, it will all depend on the position of the Bermuda High and the presence (or lack thereof) of the East Coast trough late next week.

I guess the general rule of thumb is that the longer it remains disorganized and relatively weak, the more likely the west or west-northwest track would persist. If it organizes and develops quickly, the turn more toward the northwest might occur sooner.

[Gustywind]

Looking good...with that juicy moisture

[KWT]

Can see the curving already with the southern convection that is closest to the developing low pressure. It really does remind me of a developing large WPAC system I have to admit!

[Gustywind]

Latest from NRL site:
90LINVEST.
20090813.1700.25kts-1009mb-116N-225W
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... m&PROD=geo

[Derek Ortt]

Mentioned yesterday I thought the path (not intensity) of the future Ana could be similar to Floyd (1999) or Isabel (2003). Would also have to look at Bertha and Fran (both from 1996), Hugo (1989), and Dennis (1999). If the system develops, it will all depend on the position of the Bermuda High and the presence (or lack thereof) of the East Coast trough late next week.

I guess the general rule of thumb is that the longer it remains disorganized and relatively weak, the more likely the west or west-northwest track would persist. If it organizes and develops quickly, the turn more toward the northwest might occur sooner.

no... not at all. The rule is the sooner it develops, the quicker it is influenced by the deep layer steering flow. The longer it takes, the longer the low-level winds influence the track

last year, Ike made it as far west as it did because it was very intense. A weaker storm may not have even made the GOM

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

[b]A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 22N NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED A
WELL DEFINED LOW CENTER ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 12N22W. A LARGE AREA
OF MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER.
PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-15N
BETWEEN 17W-30W. THERE IS A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS.
.
$$
FORMOSA[/b]

[HurricaneBelle]

Code Red

Well, we know who ordered the Code Red:



Now we'll see who can't handle the truth.

[Ptarmigan]

Somehow I get a feeling Invest 90L will develop into TD3 and than Ana.

[Macrocane]

Somehow I get a feeling Invest 90L will develop into TD3 and than Ana.

That is a very remote possibility (being sarcastic)

[StormClouds63]

Thanks for your knowledge, Derek. Always learn something new on this board.

[Stormcenter]

It's very possible but I'm not sold on a Cat.4-5 storm at all.

Somehow I get a feeling Invest 90L will develop into TD3 and than Ana.

[Stormcenter]

Folks this speaks volumes.....yeah I know there's always a "first time" but
most of time that's not the case. We shall see.

Here's the map for 90l's position. I'm not liking TD2's historical map at all. Not cool at all when the NHC puts the NE Leewards in the cone.



My image is based on 90l, if it were a TD or greater right now. tolakrams is frightening, quite a few impact the eastern carribean and with GFS predicting the end of the world as we know it with 90l.... yikes.

[KWT]

Hmm I think its a real option though stormcenter, look how many systems are in this position and go on to develop and end up being quite powerful hurricane down the line, quite a few given we are now in August.

I think odds on a major is quite high, though I'll hold back going any more extreme then that as I suspect there will be at least one shear pocket about that'll bring this down a peg or two at some point.

Stormcenter, yep agree with that point...but then again Ike was also not meant to hit Texas was it...
Also remember...its not a TD yet so that map doesn't really count for anything, yet!

[Gustywind]

Very interresting paragraph by San Juan area forecast discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
159 PM AST THU AUG 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT TERM...SATELLITE AND TPW IMAGERY
SUGGEST DRIER AIR FROM THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW
OVER THE VI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS PROBABLY
OVER THE MONA CHANNEL BY NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR TO FILTER IN FOR THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ONLY DIURNALLY
FORCED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

THE MAIN STORY REMAINS THE LONGER TERM TROPICAL SITUATION WHICH
REMAINS VERY UNCLEAR AT THE CURRENT MOMENT. LATEST NHC ADVISORIES
AND DISCUSSION HAVE DOWNPLAYED TD 2 INTO A WEAK SYSTEM...AND
KEEPING IT AS SUCH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THIS IS
SEEMINGLY GOOD NEWS...IT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A MUCH MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK...PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE GOOD NEWS
REMAINS THAT A DEEP SAL LAYER AND MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ARE
IMPEDING DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE SOUTHERLY TRACK COULD
MEAN A MUCH CLOSER TRACK TO THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD THE SYSTEM
SURVIVE THE DRY AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO ENTER A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WITH LARGE VARIABILITY IN
THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE...WILL TREND TOWARD ONLY AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR
MONDAY.

THE MAIN STORY STILL REMAINS THE TROPICAL WAVE OFF OF
AFRICA...WHICH HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO POINT TO A TRACK
JUST NORTH OF THE LEEWARDS...TAKING THE SYSTEM NE OF THE VI AND
PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...GFS STILL TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER THE
ISLAND AND HAS REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT IN ITS SOLUTIONS.
DEFINITELY CONTINUING TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG DURING THE DAY...OVER 20 KT FOR TJBQ...AND DYING
DOWN A BIT OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 88 / 60 20 50 50
STT 80 90 79 90 / 60 20 50 50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

64/93

[Stormcenter]

All good points but I still like those past historical tracks.

Hmm I think its a real option though stormcenter, look how many systems are in this position and go on to develop and end up being quite powerful hurricane down the line, quite a few given we are now in August.

I think odds on a major is quite high, though I'll hold back going any more extreme then that as I suspect there will be at least one shear pocket about that'll bring this down a peg or two at some point.

Stormcenter, yep agree with that point...but then again Ike was also not meant to hit Texas was it...
Also remember...its not a TD yet so that map doesn't really count for anything, yet!

[tolakram]

Folks this speaks volumes.....yeah I know there's always a "first time" but
most of time that's not the case. We shall see.

I don't think it does. You'd never use that limited amount of data to make a statistical decision, there just isn't enough data. In 100 miles the historic plot changes completely. I just don't buy into that kind of reasoning, too many variables.